Santheman schreef op 10 oktober 2019 22:44:
seekingalpha.com/article/4295501-gala...3 DAGEN OUD BERICHT
Galapagos: A Rare De-Risked Biotech Opportunity
Summary
Normal biotech companies are risky to invest in as a consequence of regular capital raises and uncertainty about future profits. The market discounts them based on these risks.
Galapagos' future cash flows get discounted accordingly. Analysts use a very high discount factor of 10-11%, which in my opinion is way too high as this is a de-risked company.
A very strong track record, much cash (70% of mkt cap), a rich pipeline and proximity to drug approvals are the main reasons why Galapagos is less risky.
As the market does not understand Galapagos' risks, buying Galapagos now provides a big opportunity. I see 35% upside based on a DCF valuation of Filgotinib, its most advanced drug.
This 35% upside is the de-risked base case. More risky read-outs from other high potential drugs could increase this upside significantly.