Porscheknakker 17 juni 2015 21:45 auteur info Porscheknakker Lid sinds: 24 jul 2003 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 1636 Gegeven: 503 Aantal posts: 12.615 Waanzinnig koersverloop, ondanks alle mooie berichten.GS is de boel omlaag aan het zetten. Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
Porscheknakker 17 juni 2015 22:06 auteur info Porscheknakker Lid sinds: 24 jul 2003 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 1636 Gegeven: 503 Aantal posts: 12.615 Belachelijke apen !!! Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 17 juni 2015 22:13 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 330ix, gelieve dergelijke nutteloze commentaren, op deze nieuwsdraad achterwege te laten!Bij voorbaat dank voor je medewerking! (remember Henk) :-) Aanbevelingen 2 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
[verwijderd] 18 juni 2015 08:52 auteur info [verwijderd] Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001 Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 0 Gegeven: 0 Aantal posts: 0 www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-rally-j... Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
Porscheknakker 18 juni 2015 10:05 auteur info Porscheknakker Lid sinds: 24 jul 2003 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 1636 Gegeven: 503 Aantal posts: 12.615 quote:voda schreef op 17 juni 2015 22:13:330ix, gelieve dergelijke nutteloze commentaren, op deze nieuwsdraad achterwege te laten!Bij voorbaat dank voor je medewerking! (remember Henk) :-)Wie bent u om zich te veroorloven in de voetsporen van Henk te treden ?Overigens ben ik en nog een paar forumleden de enigen, die de echte oorzaak van de mindere koersverloop van AM verklaren. De meesten hier zijn forumvervuilers. Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:28 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 TATA Steel UK Steelworkers strike action is suspended Hartlepool Mail reported that the industrial action by workers at Tata Steel has been temporarily suspended so a new offer on pensions can be considered. Unions said that during talks at the conciliation service Acas, and continuing dialogue with the company, negotiators secured a new offer which they said means the pension scheme would remain open. Community’s national executive agreed that the company had shifted its position to such an extent that industrial action could be suspended temporarily and steps could be taken to consult members on the revised offer. Consultation will begin with a meeting of senior union delegates from across the company on Friday. Mr Roy Rickhuss, general secretary of Community said: “It is good that Tata Steel has finally seen sense, participated in the meaningful discussions that we have been calling for and changed its mind about closing the scheme. We were always prepared to consider proposals which would help overcome the current challenges faced by the scheme and we knew that could be achieved while keeping the scheme open and recognising the importance of maintaining a good final salary pension. This dispute isn’t yet over but through meaningful discussion and negotiation we have made some steps towards finding a resolution.”David Hulse, national officer of the GMB, said: “We will put the outcome of the talks at Acas to senior shop stewards on Friday for them to decide whether to go back to the members on this.” Source : Hartlepool Mail Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:28 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 ArcelorMittal Liberia worker union condems lay offs The New Dawn Liberia reported that workers Union of ArcelorMittal in collaboration with the National Workers Union of Liberia has strongly condemned the layoff Liberians in the employ of the company. In mass meeting held with affected workers on the grounds of the ArcelorMittal Hospital over the weekend, the unions noted that amidst discussions being held between the workers union, the Government of Liberia through the Ministry of Labor and the company, the management ignored the talks and executed its redundancy plan. In that meeting, a communication written to ArcelorMittal Liberia by the Labor Ministry dated March 3, 2015 was read, calling for a halt to the redundancy until all concessions were made to the satisfaction of both parties. However, during the meeting it was resolved that all letters issued by ArcelorMittal management to workers be handed over to the ArcelorMittal Workers Union deputy secretary general, who will return same to the Human Resource Department of the company as a sign of protest and advised that no affected employee should receive package from the bank. The company has reportedly redundant 190 employees, amounting to 16 percent of the workforce. The action is being attributed to decline in the price of iron ore on the world market. Source : The New Dawn Liberia Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:29 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 US steel production update for Week 24 - AISI In the week ending June 13, 2015, domestic raw steel production was 1,747,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.9 percent. Production was 1,889,000 net tons in the week ending June 13, 2014 while the capability utilization then was 78.5 percent. The current week production represents a 7.5 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending June 13, 2015 is up 1.5 percent from the previous week ending June 6, 2015 when production was 1,722,000 net tons and the rate of capability utilization was 72.8 percent. Source : Strategic Research Institute Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:30 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 Mexican steel users responds to new steel coil tariffs The Automotive Cluster of Nuevo Leon (Claut) asked Mexican steelmakers last week to not pass the costs of the steel coil tariffs imposed by the federal government onto customers of their products. Representatives from the consulting firm IHS Automotive and the National Autoparts Industry (INA) said it will be difficult to absorb the costs through productivity of the auto industry, complicating the operation of both sectors. INA said "We will go to the Ministry of Economy to explains to us the reason for this measure and to see what other countries can bring, since neither Ternium nor other steelmakers in Mexico have the capacity to supply steel for the 3.3 million vehicles produced annually by the Mexican auto industry.”Mr Rodrigo Alpizar, president of the National Chamber of Industry (CANACINTRA) agreed, telling media that “the measures adopted for steel should also be extended to end products to avoid market distortion.”AHMSA spokesman Mr Francisco Orduña said “It is positive that authorities are taking action against unfair competition from foreign steel, but the damage is done and it can not immediately reverse. As market conditions improve and the company is back to normal rhythm, AHMSA will reassess its adjustment plan, which included cutting employee numbers by nearly 4,500.”Juan Antonio Reboulen, director of Institutional Relations and International Trade of DeAcero, contextualized the effect of the tariffs, noting the recent arrival of several automakers to the Bajio region which has not increased the prosperity of the the domestic steel industry because the manufacturers bring with them their existing chain of procurement, including imports. He said “Very few assemblers are actually buying steel locally. Many Mexican steel producers do not yet produce the ultralight steel now used so frequently in new car models. There are some plants that are starting (to innovate), but not to the extent that Mexico’s auto industry requires. The innovations can’t come soon enough.,” Source : Steel Orbis Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:31 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 Ukrainian metals companies projected to expand production in July Journal Staff Reported that Ukrainian metal companies in July plan to increase steel smelting by 4.5% compared to expected production in June, to 2.3 million tons and steel roll production will grow by 5.6%, to 1.9 million tons. According to the materials of the Metallurgprom association (Dnipropetrovsk), the plan for July foresees a rise of 23.5% in cast iron production, to 2.1 million tons. Source : Ukrainian Journal Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:32 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 Mr Nazarbayev and Mr Mittal discussed ArcelorMittal role in Kazakh economy The company's part in the development of Kazakhstan's economy and prospects of its activities given the ongoing state programs were discussed during President Nursultan Nazarbayev's meeting with the CEO of Arcelor Mittal company Lakshmi Mittal, Kazpravda.kzrefers to Akorda reporting. Work of the steel plant Arcelor Mittal in Temirtau was brought up, also the need for its sustainable operation given the challenges in the world economy, the press service added. Arcelor Mittal Steel Temirtau JSC is a major mining and metallurgical business in Kazakhstan. Production capacity of the metallurgical plant in Temirtau is 4 million tons of steel per year. The company also runs eight coal mines in Karaganda region, and 4 iron ore businesses in the Central and Northern Kazakhstan. Source : azh.kz Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:33 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 ArcelorMittal Liberia struggling to remain profitable - CEOPublished on Thu, 18 Jun 2015 122 times viewed FrontPageAfrica reported that ArcelorMittal is outlining reasons why it is being forced to lay off possibly 270 jobs related to its mining operations in Liberia. Writing in the company's internal newsletter on Monday, Mr Antonio Carlos Maria, CEO of ArcelorMittal Liberia explained that the mining industry has faced major challenges over the past year as a result of the significantly lower iron ore price, which has placed pressure on mining companies. Against this backdrop, Mr Maria stated, ArcelorMittal has had to re-examined the competitiveness of its mining business globally in order to identify the areas where costs were too high, and began taking steps in order to ensure the company remains competitive. The review, according to Maria, showed that, at ArcelorMittal Liberia, measures to improve the competitiveness of the business were necessary, in order to ensure the long-term sustainability of the business. However, the AM Liberia boss said the reality is that the company is struggling to remain profitable. He said "The reality is that we are struggling to remain profitable in light of the lower iron ore price. This in turn affects our ability to maintain employment at current levels.”Maria's picture is a far cry from 2013 when the company reported that it has shipped 3 million tonnes of iron ore between 1 January and 8 August 2013, almost doubling its 2012 figures for the same period. The monthly shipments figures, for July 2013, show production had actually tripled in June 2012 compared with July 2012. The company's overall goal is to produce 4 million tonnes of iron ore each year during the direct shipped ore (DSO) project. The arrival of the deadly Ebola virus last year changed fortunes for the international steel giant who now says it is losing money and profit in Liberia prompting layoffs and postponement of its commitment to construct the major Ganta-Yekepa highway. Source : FrontPageAfrica Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:36 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 Wet weather slows down Rio Tinto’s iron ore shipments The Australian reported that Rio Tinto’s West Australian iron ore shipments have been hit by bad weather this quarter, putting its 2015 guidance under threat and helping spur a recent rally in iron ore prices. It is understood Rio’s ports (which are to the southwest of the unaffected Port Hedland harbour used by BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals) have been shut down for various periods over April and May because of storm surges and tides. But, in downbeat news for iron ore prices in the medium term, the company’s mines have not been affected. This means that once the longer than normal wet season at Rio’s Cape Lambert and Dampier ports passes, Rio will use expanded infrastructure capacity to put as much iron ore on to the market as it can to make up shipments over the rest of the year. Rio had guided to 330 million tonnes of iron ore production from the Pilbara this year (including minority interests) and 350 million tonnes of shipments from its global mines (which include Canada). But Macquarie analyst Hayden Bairstow says this might not be achievable, despite Rio this half targeting a boost in annual Pilbara export capacity to 360 million tonnes. He wrote “In order to achieve its guidance, Rio will need to achieve a second half shipping rate of about 370 million tonnes per year, beyond the forecast capacity of 360mtpa. Delivering a beyond-capacity result is not unachievable, however we believe a 350-360mtpa rate is more likely on a sustained basis.”Source : The Australian Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 15:37 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 Pluton Resources update on status of Irvin iron ore prospects The West Australian reported that Pluton Resources shareholders remain in the dark about a return to the trading boards, despite the company yesterday upping its offshore bond offering to EUR 50 million The troubled iron ore miner was suspended from trading on the Australian Securities Exchange more than a year ago as it explored funding options for its Cockatoo Island mine amid mounting debts and a dispute with its Chinese joint venture partner that led to the appointment of receivers in November. With Pluton’s major creditor and shareholder, General Nice Resources, retiring the rec-eivers in March, the company launched a £25 million ($49.8 million) bond offering in Britain six weeks later. The company was banned by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in January from raising equity on the local market for a year without a full prospectus following alleged breaches of its disclosure obligations and a failure to meet reporting requirements. While the company is still believed to owe creditors for work dating back to last year, the bond offering aims to raise funds for its Irvine Island magnetite project, which was mothballed by Pluton in 2012. Irvine hosts magnetite deposits grading only about 33 per cent iron. Three years ago, Pluton estimated development costs of the project at about $650 million. In documents associated with the bond issue, Pluton says it wants to spend more than $33 million updating feasibility and engineering studies on the island. The bond offering is secured against the project, which is valued at $76 million by the company. Source : The West Australian Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
MG TF 18 juni 2015 15:39 auteur info MG TF Lid sinds: 30 okt 2000 Laatste bezoek: 19 jul 2022 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 258 Gegeven: 24 Aantal posts: 3.596 Voda...werk jij hier als journalist ofzo?beetje teveel geknip en geplak van persberichten is mijn mening. Ik probeer hier meer naar elkaars inzichten te kijken. de krant lees ik ergens anders wel. bij voorbaat dank Aanbevelingen 1 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 16:54 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 Je kan deze draad gewoon overslaan hoor! Aanbevelingen 1 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
ecfghil 18 juni 2015 16:59 auteur info ecfghil Lid sinds: 21 mrt 2013 Laatste bezoek: 21 jul 2022 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 26 Gegeven: 15 Aantal posts: 692 ik waardeer Voda's werk hier zeer en ben het met hem eens. Voor dagelijkse hersenspinsels is er een ander draadje met tierende apen en dergelijke. Aanbevelingen 1 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
[verwijderd] 18 juni 2015 17:06 auteur info [verwijderd] Lid sinds: 01 jan 0001 Laatste bezoek: 01 jan 0001 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 0 Gegeven: 0 Aantal posts: 0 quote:ecfghil schreef op 18 juni 2015 16:59:ik waardeer Voda's werk hier zeer en ben het met hem eens. Voor dagelijkse hersenspinsels is er een ander draadje met tierende apen en dergelijke.Helemaal mee eens, niet iedereen heeft zoveel "kranten "als de klager! Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 17:25 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 After A Lot Of Pain, Can ArcelorMittal Deliver Some Gains? Summary•Weak domestic demand has pushed Chinese steel producers to export even more steel, keeping the pressure on steel prices in North America and Brazil amidst lackluster demand (particularly in Brazil). •ArcelorMittal higher-than-average costs give it more leverage to a strong recovery, but depress margins and returns across the full cycle. •ArcelorMittal looks like an iffy long-term prospect, but the shares could have double-digit upside if this summer does indeed mark a bottom in Western Hemisphere steel. Not every steel stock has been a crushing disappointment since my last update on ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), but most of them have lived down to that generalization. That 10-month stretch has seen Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD) fall almost 10%, while Gerdau (NYSE:GGB) has fallen more than 50% and ArcelorMittal itself has fallen another quarter. As I said, there have been a few exceptions as voestalpine (OTCPK:VLPNY) and Salzgitter (OTCPK:SZGPY) have managed positive returns in U.S. dollars.The simple answer to what's gone wrong is that prices continue to erode in the face of too little supply discipline and weak demand. Iron ore prices have effectively collapsed and hot-rolled steel prices are down by double-digit amounts from the prior year. While conditions have actually been improving in Europe, North America and Brazil are still looking at lackluster demand and meaningful import competition.Is ArcelorMittal at long last a true bargain or is this just a reloaded value trap? Over the long term, I lean toward the latter as I believe the company's iron ore operations are structurally disadvantaged and the company is unlikely to earn a good return relative to its cost of equity. In the short term, I think it's possible to make a more bullish argument as the shares seem to be pricing current conditions as close to a new normal.Will Imports Ruin Any Recovery?One of the chief challenges to North American producers like ArcelorMittal, Steel Dynamics, and Gerdau (which is a Brazilian company but has considerable assets in North America) is that seemingly any price momentum is met by increased exports from Chinese producers. Chinese steel companies are gorging on cheap Australian coal and iron ore, and since their own domestic demand environment isn't good (domestic consumption declined 5% yoy in Jan-Apr 2015), they're sending that steel to North America and Brazil and exports have risen 33% yoy from January to April of this year.One of the principal issues is the different cost structure. Estimates vary, but most industry analysts seem to agree that cash breakeven on exports for the Chinese steel industry is somewhere in the neighborhood of $375/t for hot-rolled steel. Weak as North American prices have been, they've still managed to stay in the mid-$400's and that's ample incentive for Chinese producers to export - imports climbed to around 28% share of the U.S. market in 2014 and they're still rising.What happens next is a big question. U.S. producers want tariffs on imported steel and history would suggest they'll probably get them. What doesn't seem to be on the table are significant capacity curtailments by major U.S. producers. ArcelorMittal has talked about restructuring its North American operations, but management comments lead me to think that's most likely going to focus on downstream operations like finishing as opposed to closing meaningful production capacity. Likewise with Nucor (NYSE:NUE), Steel Dynamics, and U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) - nobody seems eager to shrink capacity, even though that seemed to help the European market.Speaking of the European market, it looks as though some winds of protectionism might be blowing there too. Regulators are looking at tariffs on cold-rolled steel imported from Russia and China and although those aren't a big part of the EU market, it represents a change in attitude relative to recent practice.Can Iron Ore Be Fixed?When iron ore was expensive, ArcelorMittal's extensive vertical integration seemed like a great advantage (the company can supply more than half of its own iron ore needs, and close to a quarter of its coal needs). Now that prices have plunged to heretofore unthinkable levels, that asset has started to look more like a mixed blessing if not an albatross.I think ArcelorMittal would do very well to achieve long-term costs in its iron ore operations in the $60's/ton - much higher than the low-cost Australian operations of Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) and BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP), as well as Vale's (NYSE:VALE) Brazilian operations. Management believes they can reduce costs at various points in the supply chain, but they're just not going to compete with sub-$30 cash costs in Western Australia. It's not entirely fair to compare ArcelorMittal to the cost-leaders, and long-term spot market pricing is likely to be quite higher than those low-end cash costs, but a long-term low price environment for iron ore does erode the company's cost advantage over non-integrated producers.Waiting For Global GrowthUnlike voestalpine, and to a lesser extent Steel Dynamics, I don't believe there's a lot that ArcelorMittal can do to "high-grade" its portfolio. The company's Usibor high-strength steel may fend off competition from aluminum in the auto sector, but the company is simply too big (around 8% to 9% of global capacity) to use mix shifts to higher-value products like auto steel or rail to offset core weakness.What ArcelorMittal needs more than anything is supply discipline and demand growth. Global capacity utilization was below 73% in April despite a 1% decline in global production. Generally speaking, 80% to 85% is the point where integrated steel companies can do well and where ArcelorMittal can start generating good leverage on its otherwise relatively high fixed cost base.U.S. auto production has been pretty solid, but there could still be upside from non-residential construction and infrastructure. Brazil is in the midst of a severe downturn that has sapped demand for construction, appliances, and autos, but I expect that this market will turn around (although "when" is a key question). China remains a key swing market; it would do ArcelorMittal and other U.S. producers a lot of good to see the Chinese construction market come back to life in a big way and reabsorb the steel that is being directed to the export market. Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
voda 18 juni 2015 17:25 auteur info voda Lid sinds: 02 dec 2005 Laatste bezoek: 24 apr 2024 Aanbevelingen Ontvangen: 81957 Gegeven: 20888 Aantal posts: 364.322 Deel 2:Estimating The ValueDebating the right multiple or discount rate for ArcelorMittal is all well and good, but it doesn't really get an investor very far if the underlying EBITDA and FCF expectations prove too optimistic, and that has been the case over the past year. Nevertheless, I'm taking a stab at estimating the fair value of this steel giant based on what I know today.If I average my EBITDA estimates for 2015 and 2016 (since we're halfway through 2015), and use a 5.5x multiple (lower than my prior multiple of 6x but in-line with the global steel sector), I come up with a fair value of $10.75 today. Look ahead a few years into the recovery and discount back at 10.5% and the fair value moves to just under $13.On the cash flow side, if I assume a full-cycle average FCF margin of 4.25% (below the prior cycle average by about 1%), long-term growth of 1.5%, and a 10.5% discount rate, I come up with a fair value of $12.50 today. Reversing the model to work back from today's price, it would seem that the shares are pricing in just 3% full-cycle free cash flow margins (and/or a somewhat higher margin but lower growth and/or higher discount).The Bottom LineA lot of management teams in the steel and base metal sector have expressed a viewpoint that the markets will bottom around midyear and start moving up. If that's true, ArcelorMittal could do better from here but it is well worth mentioning that "light at the end of the tunnel" calls have been made before during this cycle and those lights proved to be oncoming trains. I'd also note that the structural changes in the market (more Chinese capacity, lower iron ore prices) may make it very difficult for ArcelorMittal to earn its cost of equity, which would argue against evaluating this as more than a cyclical trading vehicle.For my money, I'd rather own Steel Dynamics, Gerdau, or maybe some of the specialty alloy companies as recovery plays. ArcelorMittal certainly has the opportunity to recover on renewed optimism for a steel recovery in the Western Hemisphere, but I'll admit to feeling a little "once bitten, twice shy" regarding that idea.Bron: Seeking Alpha Aanbevelingen 0 ” Quote Reageren Niet oké
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