ASML Holding NL0010273215

Nieuwe upcycle in de halfgeleider industrie?

1. novital 2 september 2008 10:27

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   Bij het volgende bericht dient een kanttekening geplaatst te worden, omdat Gartner niet de meest betrouwbare en standvastige peiler is van de toekomstige staat van de chipsector.
   
   Gartner verlaagt verwachtingen omzetgroei chipsector
   2 september 2008, 9:11 | FD.nl/DJ
   AMSTERDAM (FD.nl/DJ)--Gartner heeft zijn omzetverwachtingen voor de halfgeleiderindustrie in 2008 en 2009 verlaagd. Het onderzoeksbureau gaat er bovendien niet van uit dat de sector zal herstellen voor de tweede helft van volgend jaar.
   
   "We staan op een kruising", aldus onderzoeksdirecteur John Barber van Gartner tijdens een halfgeleider-roadshow van het bedrijf in Singapore dinsdag. "We zien zwakte in de markt die we niet zagen in de eerste helft van het jaar."
   
   Volgens Barber begint de koopkracht van consumenten wereldwijd af te nemen, door een verslechtering van de economische omstandigheden. In de eerste helft van het jaar presteerde de chipsector nog relatief goed, door een sterke groei bij pc's en mobiele apparatuur.
   
   Gartner gaat nu uit van een omzetgroei voor de halfgeleiderindustrie van 4,2% in 2008 tot $285 mrd. Eerder voorzag het nog een omzettoename van 4,6% tot $287 mrd. De omzet in 2009 zal naar verwachting met 7,8% stijgen tot $308 mrd, een verlaging tegenover de eerder voorspelde 7,9% groei.
   
   Gartner wijst erop dat de nieuwe vooruitzichten nog verder kunnen worden bijgesteld als macro-economische omstandigheden blijven verslechteren.
   
   Een afnemende vraag, stijgende margedruk en toenemende concurrentie zullen, zo zegt onderzoeksdirecteur Barber, ook verdere fusies en overnames in de sector aanwakkeren.
   
   www.bnr.nl/artikel/10029419/gartner-v...
2. novital 2 september 2008 13:45

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   De overstap naar 300mm wafers vordert gestaag. Dit betekent dat capaciteitsinvestering in 300mm de norm geworden is, en dat productie op wafers met kleinere afmetingen een aflopende zaak is.
   Veel 200mm producenten staan voor de keuze om over te schakelen, of te rade te gaan bij de foundries (of weg te kwijnen). Dat vertaalt zich als per saldo gunstig voor ASML als leverancier van kostenbesparende 300mm apparatuur.
   
   300mm wafers start dominating capacity, says SIA
   
   John Walko EE Times Europe (09/02/2008 6:25 AM EDT)
   
   LONDON -- 300mm wafers for the first time account for the largest share of wafer manufacturing capacity and actual wafers processed, with 44 percent of total capacity and 47 percent of total silicon processed, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).
   
   The Association highlighted the crossover from 200mm wafer starts in comments on the latest WSTS statistics on global chip sales , which indicate that in July they grew by 7.6 percent to $22.2 billion compared with the corresponding month last year.
   
   Three-month moving avearge sales grew by 2.8 percent from June when sales were $21.6 billion. Year-to-date sales through July were $148.3 billion, an increase of 5 percent from the same period of 2007 when sales were $141.3 billion.
   
   The SIA also added that overall capacity utilization remains high at 89 percent  with leading edge above 95 percent.
   
   "Growing sales of consumer electronics, personal computers and cell phones  which account for about 80 percent of chip demand  contributed to a healthy 7.6 percent year-on-year increase in worldwide microchip sales," said SIA President George Scalise. "LCD TV units are projected to increase 32 percent this year, and digital set top boxes and digital still cameras will both be up around 20 percent. Taking into account PC unit growth of about 13 percent and cell phone growth of over 10 percent, we are enjoying the benefits of the strong 3.3 percent second quarter GDP growth in the U.S ,and continued strength in world markets" Scalise added.
   
   SIA noted that sales of DRAMs and NAND flash memory continued to decline as a result of continuing price erosion. "Total semiconductor sales excluding memory products increased by 11.6 percent year-on-year and by 3.2 percent sequentially," said Scalise. "The memory content of typical PCs and cell phones continues to increase. According to Micron Technology, the DRAM bit content of the average PC in 2008 will increase by 56 percent, while the NAND flash content for the average cell phone will grow by 178 percent."
   
   www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArtic...
3. novital 3 september 2008 21:58

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   Als Gartner gelijk krijgt zet het herstel voor de halfgeleider industrie pas in de H209 in.
   
   Gartner lowers 2008 IC forecast
   NAND flash memory market has "fallen apart," analyst says
   
   Dylan McGrath EE Times (09/03/2008 3:19 PM EDT)
   
   SAN FRANCISO— Market research firm Gartner Inc. has revised its 2008 and 2009 semiconductor forecasts downward, saying macroeconomic trends, the collapse of the NAND flash memory market and disturbing reports of slowing revenue growth from the industry's No. 1 foundry are weighing on the sector even as individual chip markets remain strong.
   
   Gartner said it now expects overall 2008 semiconductor revenue to be $285 billion, an increase of 4.2 percent over 2007. The firm had most recently projected chip revenue to be 4.6 percent for the year, reaching $287 billion.
   
   Gartner lowered its 2009 revenue projection to $308 billion, up 7.8 percent from 2008. The firm's earlier projection called for 2009 revenue to increase 7.9 percent to $309 billion.
   
   While global macroeconomic conditions have worsened through the first half of 2008, IT markets have been stronger than Gartner initially thought, according to Bryan Lewis, vice president and chief analyst for ASICs, SoCs, and FPGAs. Gartner recently raised its PC and cell phone unit growth rates to 12.5 percent and 10 percent, respectively, for the year, Lewis said.
   
   "The whole semiconductor market has held up amazing well, but it's starting to show signs that it's going to crack," Lewis said.
   
   Lewis cited recent reports that third quarter revenue from foundry giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) could be 5 percent or lower—significantly less than anticipated—as one of the first signs that the chip market is not immune to larger trends. Original design manufactures (ODMs) are also reporting poor visibility for the third and fourth quarters, which is very different from past years, he said.
   
   The chip market "will get hit, and we are starting to see the first signs of it," Lewis said. Gartner's revised forecast calls for a weak second half 2008 and first half 2009, then a market recovery in the second half of last year.
   
   While the market remains strong for many semiconductor categories, the NAND flash memory market has "fallen apart" over the past two months, Lewis said.
   
   Citing slowing demand across the U.S. and Europe due to macroeconomic factors and an inventory glut, Gartner projects 2008 NAND flash revenue will be $13.9 billion, down 10.1 percent from 2007.
   
   "The flash market went from looking like it was going to be up to looking like it is going to be down significantly," Lewis said.
   
   Gartner expects a NAND flash recovery in the second half of 2009 and is projecting NAND revenue to be up 16 percent next year and up 19.5 percent in 2010.
   
   www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArtic...
4. novital 4 september 2008 09:22

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   Aanhoudend hoge bezettingsgraden.
   Wat SIA president Scalise aan het eind zegt staat haaks op de mening van andere analisten die veel somberder zijn voor de nabije toekomst.
   
   Leading edge capacity at 95 percent, says SIA
   04 September 2008 | By Mark Osborne
   
   Strong demand for semiconductors, especially from the consumer markets is allowing IC manufacturers to retain high fab utilization rates, according to the latest figures from the SIA. Overall capacity utilization is at 89 percent in July, 2008 with leading edge utilization rates above 95 percent. The SIA also reported that for the first time, 300mm wafer production accounts for the largest share of wafer manufacturing capacity and actual wafers processed, with 44 percent of total capacity and 47 percent of total silicon processed.
   
   Worldwide sales of semiconductors actually grew by 7.6 percent to $22.2 billion in July from July 2007 sales of $20.6 billion, the SIA reported. Sales grew by 2.8 percent from June when sales were $21.6 billion. Year-to-date sales through July were $148.3 billion, an increase of 5 percent from the same period of 2007 when sales were $141.3 billion.
   
   “Growing sales of consumer electronics, personal computers and cell phones – which account for about 80 percent of chip demand – contributed to a healthy 7.6 percent year-on-year increase in worldwide microchip sales,” said SIA President George Scalise. “LCD TV units are projected to increase 32 percent this year, and digital set top boxes and digital still cameras will both be up around 20 percent. Taking into account PC unit growth of about 13 percent and cell phone growth of over 10 percent, we are enjoying the benefits of the strong 3.3 percent second quarter GDP growth in the U.S. and continued strength in world markets.”
   
   www.fabtech.org/news/_a/leading_edge_...
   
5. novital 4 september 2008 12:35

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   Dit bericht toont aan dat het EUV ontwikkelingsproces doorgaat en dat nieuwe resultaten bereikt zijn. Het artikel is nogal technisch van aard, vandaar dat enkel het eerste en een later deel hier aangehaald worden.
   
   IMEC, ASML: Another step closer to production-worthy EUV
   
   Date: september, 2008 By: Solid State Technology
   
   Kicking off this year’s SEMICON West, IMEC said it has been able to achieve electrically functional 32nm SRAM cells (FinFETs). The fin and gate levels were prepared using immersion lithography, but the contact hole level was exposed using EUV lithography (hole size 50nm). The work was done on ASML’s alpha tool installed at IMEC.
   …
   Although this work has been done at 45nm and 32nm, the ultimate target is for a production-worthy EUV tool at 22nm. “Memory companies will most likely insert EUV at 22nm to obtain the required half-pitch, while many logic manufacturers will be able to delay EUV insertion until the 16nm node, which for them corresponds to a 22nm half-pitch,” explained Kurt Ronse, program director, advanced lithography, at IMEC, in an interview with SST.
   The consortia also is studying which layers can be exposed using EUV beyond the contact layer, and which would be exposed using immersion lithography.
   
   www.solid-state.com/display_article/3...,-ASML:-Another-step-closer-to-production-worthy-EUV
   
6. novital 5 september 2008 08:48

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   Opnieuw een grote stap in het consolidatie/saneringsproces dat plaatsvindt in de halfgeleiderindustrie. Dit keer niet tussen een tier 1 en een tier 2 speler maar tussen twee hotshots!
   Niet onlogisch en bij de huidige lage beurskoers van SanDisk een koopje.
   
   Samsung reportedly mulls SanDisk buy
   
   Dylan McGrath EE Times (09/05/2008 2:03 AM EDT)
   
   SAN FRANCISO— South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. is considering acquiring flash memory maker SanDisk Corp., according to reports.
   
   Reports from several news organizations, including Reuters and Bloomberg, quoted a Samsung spokesman as saying that the company is exploring opportunities with SanDisk, but that no decisions have been made.
   
   Korean language website Edaily initially broke the story and reported that Samsung has engaged JPMorgan as an advisor in the negotiations, according to the reports.
   
   Samsung is the world's No. 1 supplier of NAND flash memory, owning an estimated 43 percent share of the market during the second quarter of this year, according to market analyst iSuppli Corp. (El Segundo, Calif.). SanDisk is the inventor and No. 1 supplier of NAND flash memory cards used in consumer electronics devices like digital cameras.
   
   Samsung pays SanDisk significant royalties on SD (secure digital) flash memory cards. The two companies have fought legal squabbles over the licensing terms. Acquiring SanDisk would enable Samsung to avoid such royalties, as well as provide other strategic advantages.
   
   Last month, a rumor circulated at the Flash Memory Summit in Santa Clara, Calif. that Seagate Technology Inc. was interested in acquiring SanDisk.
   
   www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArtic...
7. novital 5 september 2008 09:18

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   UMC, een Taiwanese halfgeleider foundry die chips produceert in opdracht van derden, laat weer eens van zich spreken op het CAPEX front. Ze kocht voor ca €12 miljoen ($548,477,028 NTD) aan apparatuur bij Applied Materials. In maart verwierf het bedrijf voor het laatst apparatuur, ook van AMAT.
   Wie weet signaleert dit na zes maanden *mischien* het begin van nieuwe investeringsrondes als de start van een nieuwe business upcycle.
   De vinger wordt aan die pols gehouden.
   
   emops.twse.com.tw/emops_all.htm
   
8. novital 5 september 2008 09:23

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   ASMI en Applied Materials dichtbij deal waarbij AMAT de front-end activiteiten van ASMI overneemt.
   
   Evenals de vermoedelijke overname van SanDisk door Samsung een teken van de voortgaande consolidatie/sanering in de semiconductor branche.
   
   www.beurs.nl/nieuws/artikel.php?id=27...
   
9. novital 5 september 2008 09:32

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   quote:

   novital schreef:

   Evenals de vermoedelijke overname van SanDisk door Samsung een teken van de voortgaande consolidatie/sanering in de semiconductor branche.
   

   Denk hierbij ook aan de mogelijke overname van Qimonda door Micron Technology.
10. [verwijderd] 5 september 2008 14:30

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    Idd. een goed teken Novital, de kleintjes worden er uitgeknepen door die lage chipprijzen.
    
    Schaalvergroting lijkt het nieuwe toverwoord in de semi-industry.
    
    Misschien ooit nog eens een fusie tussen Amat en Asml?
    
11. novital 9 september 2008 07:47

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    Optimisten rekenen op een heropleving in 2009 met 13% wereldwijde groei in de equipment markt. In Taiwan zelfs met 53%.
    
    SEMICON Taiwan 2008: Semiconductor players cautiously optimistic about 2009
    
    Claire Sung, Taipei; Esther Lam, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 9 September 2008]
    
    The present sluggish semiconductor industry status has not discouraged participants of a Executive Discussion Panel, with the members for the most part voicing a cautiously optimistic outlook for the industry next year. SEMI president and CEO Stanley T. Myers indicated that the equipment market in Taiwan may even see a 53% on-year growth next year.
    
    During the SEMICON Taiwan 2008 (September 9-11) pre-show press conference, Myers estimated that the global semiconductor equipment market will decline by 20% on year to US$34 billion in 2008. However, the equipment market is expected to resume with a 13% on-year growth in 2009, with the amount to total US$38.6 billion. Among all regions, Taiwan is expected to lead with growth of 53% in 2009, SEMI estimates. The encouraging recovery will be driven by aggressive expansion on 12-inch wafer production, which is expected to ramp up from 700,000 wafers per month by the end of this year and 1.2 million wafers over the next two years.
    
    Despite industry players having a divergent view about the sustainability of Moore's Law, Aart de Genus, CEO of Synopsys, indicated that the Law is still applicable. Speaking as an electronic design automation (EDA) player, Genus said Synopsys did not see any delays for migration to next-generation design geometries. The amount of 45/40nm designs have grown to 215 in September, up from 184 in June, meaning industry players are still aggressively migrating to new geometries, he said.
    
    Aviza Technology chairman and president Jerry Cutini commented that cyclical ups and downs do exist in the semiconductor industry. Therefore, it is an inevitable challenge that industry players must deal with. However, Cutini commented that Aviza is noticing that cycles are not passing evenly through the industry. For example, growth amid the foundry sector remains strong, while the memory sector is in the doldrums. Such a market dynamic makes it difficult for equipment suppliers, Cutini pointed out.
    
    www.digitimes.com/bits_chips/a2008090...
12. novital 9 september 2008 19:21

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    De eerste bedrijven die de de DRAM overproductie te lijf gaan. Als de anderen het voorbeeld willen volgen zal het wel een verschil gaan maken.
    
    Elpida, Powerchip cut DRAM production
    
    Mark LaPedus EE Times (09/09/2008 12:04 PM EDT)
    
    SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Japanese DRAM maker Elpida Memory Inc. and its Taiwan partner, Powerchip Semiconductor Corp., have cut their production rates amid a downturn in the sector, according to reports.
    
    But is that enough to help the DRAM downturn? Quick answer: No.
    
    Elpida has a 300-mm fab in Japan and recently announced a big fab project in China. Elpida and Powerchip have a joint fab venture in Taiwan.
    
    ''Powerchip announced that it plans to cut its DRAM capacity [by] 10-15 percent in Q4 '08. Currently, Powerchip's fab output (including the portion allocated to Elpida) accounts for nearly 10 percent of the total worldwide DRAM output,'' according to the DRAMeXchange, a DRAM clearing house. ''The 10-15 percent capacity cut is expected to reduce the worldwide output by 1-2 percent.''
    
    The cutback will make only a small dent in the DRAM market, which has been hit hard by a major downturn. And there is no relief in sight for the sector.
    
    ''Both the DRAM spot and contract prices have dropped sharply,'' according to the DRAMeXchange. ''The DDR2 1-Gbit spot prices have dropped near the cash cost, while the DDR2 512-Mbit has dropped to the cash cost level in Q4 '07.''
    
    As a result of the trends, most DRAM makers are losing money, including Elpida, Hynix, Micron, Qimonda, Powerchip and others. Samsung appears to be in the black--for now.
    
    www.eetimes.com/news/semi/rss/showArt...
13. novital 9 september 2008 20:49

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    quote:

    novital schreef:

    De eerste bedrijven die de de DRAM overproductie te lijf gaan. Als de anderen het voorbeeld willen volgen zal het wel een verschil gaan maken.
    

    Tenzij Samsung de productie onveranderlijk hoog houdt om de zwakke kleinere broeders geheel uit de markt te drukken, zoals eerder gesuggereerd.
14. novital 9 september 2008 21:42

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    Samsung zou zoals gezegd een bloedbad kunnen aanrichten onder de kleinere DRAM producenten om de overproductie een halt toe te roepen en om zelf daarbij marktaandeel te veroveren.
    
    Powerchip counting on output cut
    By Lisa Wang STAFF REPORTER Taipeitimes
    Wednesday, Sep 10, 2008, Page 12
    
    ...
    “Heavyweight players like Samsung Electronics Co are expanding capacity during the slowdown to force small companies to withdraw from the market.” — Liu Szu-liang, analyst at Yuanta Securities
    ...
    
    Hier het volledige artikel:
    www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives...
15. [verwijderd] 9 september 2008 22:40

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    Met lage prijzen marktaandeel winnen en later weer des te meer profiteren van het loslaten v/d minimum prijzen..
    
    Investeringen blijven in machines blijven nog wat achter maar daar komt binnenkort verandering in, kan haast niet anders.
    
    The crisis is due in large part to a "chicken game" chipmakers have been engaged in despite a market slump. The global market goes through a boom and slump cycle; the term "chicken game" refers to a strategy of increasing output during the slump to boost market share and monopolizing on the profits when boom times return.
    
    english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/...
16. novital 10 september 2008 08:10

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    De verkoopcijfers van TSMC van augustus tonen stabilisatie t.o.v. juli en een stevige stijging t.o.v de periode een jaar geleden.
    
    TSMC August 2008 Sales Report
    
    TSMC (TAIEX: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today announced its net sales for
    August 2008: on an unconsolidated basis, sales were NT$30,995 million,
    an increase of 0.4 percent over July 2008 and an increase of 6.2 percent
    over August 2007. Revenues for January through August 2008 totaled
    NT$232,689 million, an increase of 19.8 percent compared to the same
    period in 2007.
    On a consolidated basis, net sales for August 2008 were NT$31,850
    million, an increase of 0.1 percent over July 2008 and an increase of
    6.1 percent over August 2007. Revenues for January through August
    2008 totaled NT$239,281 million, an increase of 20.1 percent
    compared to the same period in 2007.
    
    emops.twse.com.tw/emops_all.htm
17. novital 10 september 2008 08:57

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    Na de inkrimping van de DRAM productie door het Japanse Elpida en het de Taiwanese Powerchip, gaat Hynix uit Zuid-Korea de Nand flash productie met 20-30% reduceren.
    
    10-09-2008: Hynix says to cut NAND flash chip output 20%-30%
    
    SEOUL: Hynix Semiconductor Inc, the world's No 2 memory chip maker, said on Wednesday it would cut production of NAND flash memory chips by 20% to 30% starting in September.
    Hynix is planning to shut down a production line this month, while a new memory line is only producing small quantities, a spokeswoman said.
    The 2008 outlook for NAND makers is dim as global consumer spending suffers from a worldwide economic slowdown. -- Reuters
    
    www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?...
    
18. novital 10 september 2008 10:08

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    De wereldwijde halfgeleider machine verkopen zitten zoals bekend in het slop. SEMI bevestigt dit. Verwacht herstel in 2009.
    
    SEMI REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2008 WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT FIGURES; BILLINGS US$7.83 BILLION
    
    SAN JOSE, Calif. – September 9, 2008 – SEMI today reported that worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings reached $7.83 billion in the second quarter of 2008. The billings figure is 26 percent less than the first quarter of 2008 and 29 percent less than the same quarter a year ago. The data is gathered in cooperation with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) from more than 150 global equipment companies that provide data on a monthly basis.
    
    SEMI also reported worldwide semiconductor equipment bookings of US$6.99 billion in the second quarter of 2008. The figure is 30 percent less than the same quarter a year ago, and 13 percent less than the bookings figure for the first quarter of 2008.
    
    “Spending for new semiconductor equipment is down considerably as anticipated,” said Dan Tracy, senior director of Industry Research and Statistics at SEMI. “Overall 2008 spending will approach 2005 levels, with a recovery expected for next year.”
    
    wps2a.semi.org/wps/portal/_pagr/103/_...
19. novital 10 september 2008 19:56

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    Heeft de semi-equipment sector de bodem bereikt?
    Waarschijnlijk niet, zegt Mark LaPedus
    
    Has fab-tool sector hit the bottom?
    
    Mark LaPedus Page 1 of 4
    EE Times (09/10/2008 11:12 AM EDT)
    
    SAN JOSE, Calif. -- The business climate remains bleak in semiconductor equipment, as SEMI reported a significant drop in bookings and billings for the second quarter.
    
    There were no bright spots in the period. Every region reported a huge drop in fab-tool billings in the second quarter, including China, which showed the greatest decline.
    
    The question is whether or not the sector has hit the bottom? Possibly not. Capital spending in the memory segment remains down. Spending in the foundry and logic sectors are steady, but they are offsetting the steep drop in memory.
    
    One analyst warned that the overall IC business will go from bad to worse. ''The fourth quarter will be a bust'' in the IC market, the analyst said, adding that there are no ''killer apps'' in the business to drive chip demand.
    
    SEMI predicts a fab-tool recovery in 2009. Others doubt that forecast, saying business looks terrible for some time.
    
    In any case, SEMI reported that worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings reached $7.83 billion in the second quarter of 2008, down 26 percent less than the first quarter of 2008 and 29 percent less than the same quarter a year ago.
    
    SEMI also reported worldwide semiconductor equipment bookings of US$6.99 billion in the second quarter of 2008. The figure is 30 percent less than the same quarter a year ago, and 13 percent less than the bookings figure for the first quarter of 2008.
    
    The data is gathered in cooperation with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) from more than 150 global equipment companies that provide data on a monthly basis.
    
    ''Spending for new semiconductor equipment is down considerably as anticipated,'' said Dan Tracy, an analyst at SEMI, in a statement. ''Overall 2008 spending will approach 2005 levels, with a recovery expected for next year.''
    
    A decline of 20 percent in worldwide fab equipment spending is expected for 2008, but the sector is expected to rebound and grow over 20 percent in 2009, according to a recent report from SEMI.
    ...
    
    Lees verder:
    www.eetimes.com/news/semi/rss/showArt...
    
20. [verwijderd] 10 september 2008 21:08

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    Micron Tech vanavond op 13% in de plus, wat is daar aan de hand.?