ron banged schreef:
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grapjas er komt helemaal geen overname in ten minste de komende 3 jaar(in ieder geval niet als het aan mij ligt).
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I would agree except for one thing. In three years the royalties will still be 3 years away...the company's nickname...The Company of Perpetual Promise has not been earned without reason.
Do you check out the partners and licensee page often?
www.crucell.com/Partners%20-%20Genera...Actually, you don't need to check it out often. It sits there and sits there and sits there.
When are the royalties going to start? When are these companies...many with multiple products in preclinical going to move some into Phase I? Yes it takes time to get a product to market...but that page should be glowing with orange, red and green, not virtually filled in with all purple.Even the sure thing...Sanofi and Flucell has turned into a bust. Everyone agreed we needed to get away from egg based flu vaccines...the US government threw a lot of money at Sanofi to do just that. And now it is stuck in Phase II, while every other cell-based flu vaccine cruises straight through trials without a single hiccup. It would have been helpful during the H1N1 pandemic. Getting it onto the market would have increased Crucell's value tremendously, and Crucell could be selling FluCell into Japan.
Ebola-in Phase I after 7 years, WTF. Good results four years ago. Couldn't have actual trials because of the severity of the disease, so animal studies were supposed to be sufficient. Approval by 2007. Now we are still in Phase I.
Malaria-great results...then we pissed off GSK, got thrown out on our on and relied on NIH to set up the trials...still recruiting for phase I, in a process that will take at least a decade.
HIV-unmitigated disaster. It was not Crucell's fault, but still an complete debacle.
Percivia-STAR- etc. Crucell used to post slides about wanting to command 25% of the MaB market. Problem is the same they had with the great idea surrounding biosimiliars...switching cell lines is like developing a whole new drug, and complete trials will be needed...except it will still be fall under the jurisdiction of the original drug/MaB it is copying.
Factor V-don't get me started. Yet Crucell still believes that PER.C6 will be good for blood products.
Then there is the secrecy thing. Is the Wyeth deal the "biggest deal ever"...well no revenue from it so far. If Brus is going to claim "biggest deal ever" for every product that is under development, the phrase "biggest deal ever" will lose all meaning. So far Wyeth is meaningless because there is no "there" there.
J+J-Basically gave J+J veto rights to any buy-out. Please, don't give me that "there can still be a buy-out"...not without J+J there can't. The odds of getting 70% without the 18% J+J owns is a joke. It is J+J or nobody.
Bright spots are TB...moving along...and rabies...although the delays have started...even though it is in fast track. We will see how much the delays grow.
So Crucell, unable to grow using it's original strength...Mabstract, PERC.6, and STAR. So they are forced to buy other companies to increase revenue. This is a zero sum game. Share and cash used to buy companies dilute the shares. Revenues go up...but share prices stay the same. Yes they may make a good deal and boost the share price marginally...but it takes at least 2 years to incorporate the new company...whittle out waste, consolidate etc. But this is assuming the deal works. Big Pharma has shown how difficult it is to pick out a company that will really boost share price.
No you need to grow organically to boost share price. You need to not keep everyone in the dark about every deal you do. Stop diluting the share base. Do what you say you are going to do.
Problem is, the royalties, which I once believed would rain down on Crucell are still 4 years off,
Which is funny, I thought 4 years ago that the royaties would be starting in 2010...with Flucell.
I thought the Partner and licensee page would be glowing in orange, red and green. Biosimiliars would be in the works, Crucell would have a partner in TB and Malaria.
Profits delayed are profits denied. If Crucell can be sold for anything over 20 euro...I am now in. Quick before management can f**k up some more.
Notice I didn't post anything about the f**ups of the past 2 months.