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Rare earth metals

346 Posts
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  1. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2010 00:16

    De hele REE-hype zal vroeg of laat net zo in elkaar storten als de uranium-hype van 2007.
    Als er 2 of 3 nieuwe mijnen buiten China in gebruik genomen worden zullen de REE-prijzen weer in elkaar storten.
    Op dit moment is de hele hype gebaseerd op een kunstmatige schaarste, die ieder moment door berichten uit China weer ongedaan gemaakt kan worden.
  2. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2010 00:39
    We have witnessed a fair share of bubbles over the past 15 years: internet stocks, housing, crude oil, and Chinese stocks. We have had some success in identifying "bubbles" in individual stocks and warning the investment community about specific issues (including HUSA at $20.35 see here and PCBC at $5.11 see here). Possibly the most voracious bubble in recent memory is occurring with Rare Earth Element ("RE" or "RE elements") stocks. We have done some work framing the opportunities and risks within the RE elements space. After sifting through the hype, we believe there is tremendous risk in RE stocks and highlight Rare Element Resources (AMEX: "REE" $12.74/ TSX: "REC") as a potential short opportunity, or at least a stock investors should avoid.

    Rare Element is a Canadian based company that owns the Bear Lodge mine located in the northeastern corner of Wyoming. The stock price is up over 500% since early July and over 65% in the past three days. With the euphoria of the strong move in RE element stocks, speculators have bought first and asked questions later. We believe Rare Element investors will wish they had done more diligence before piling into a company with a potentially worthless plot of land. We believe Rare Element is a heavily promoted stock with questionable management and massive risks to a business plan that under the rosiest scenario will not be at full production until 2015 or 2016. By that time, we expect the world could suffer from a glut of RE supplies. As a result, we believe current investors face at least 70% downside from current levels.
  3. kck 29 oktober 2010 00:53
    BAOTOU, China — The Chinese government abruptly ended its unannounced embargo of exports of crucial strategic minerals to the United States, Europe and Japan, although shipments to Japan still encountered some difficulties, four rare earth industry officials said Thursday.

    www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/business/e...
  4. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2010 08:51
    Het wordt tijd dat het kaf van het koren gescheiden wordt in de REE-business...

    Overigens wel leuk, al die bubbelvoorspellers. Ze hebben natuurlijk volkomen gelijk, maar ondertussen is het geld al verdiend in 2010!

    P.S. Bij uranium waren er ook winnaars!
  5. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2010 15:58

    Kutessay II is the only past-producing Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREEs) mine in the world, located outside of China. Stans Energy owns a 25-year mining licence for the property, and the company is currently completing a JORC resource estimate (Australian equivilent to a NI 43-101, see – www.jorc.org for details), followed by a metallurgical study. Upon the results of these two milestones, Stans intends to begin a feasibility study to illustrate an economic model for reopening the Kutessay II HREE mine in the 4th quarter of 2010. During their last visit to northern Kyrgyzstan, the officers of Stans Energy were filmed by a business news television network, for a segment highlighting the company’s progess. The following video is a mine tour of Kutessay II.

    Kutessay II Former REEs Open Pit Mine

    Google Earth image of the Kutessay II open pit: Pointer 42 51’52.90”N 76 08’00.51” E

    Kutessay II Facts

    Previously produced 80% of the former Soviet Union’s REEs from 1960-1991
    Former producing REEs open-pit mine
    30 years of proven metallurgy, with approximately 65% recovery
    Good infrastructure, rail line 43 km away, electrical power on site, and the mine is located 140 km by paved road from Kyrgyzstan’s capital city of Bishkek
    Contains all 15 REEs and formerly produced every REE at purities up to 99.99%
    Light Rare Earth Elements (LREEs) to Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREEs) ratio of approximately 50/50
    Kutessay II concentrate was refined into 120 different REE compounds
    Abundance of qualified labour live in the area
    Kutessay II REEs Historical Ore Distribution
  6. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2010 16:11
    Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are any of the abundant metallic elements of atomic number 57 through 71, plus Scandium and Yttrium, of which the oxides are classified as rare earths.

    REEs have unique physical and chemical properties and are irreplaceable components of many advanced electronic devices, products for energy efficiency, and innovations focused on reducing greenhouse gases. As such they are essential to many of the world’s emerging green technologies.

    REEs are divided into two groups – Light Rare Earth Elements (LREEs), and Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREEs). The following table identifies which elements fall into the two categories, and illustrates the price per kilogram for REE oxides, using FOB July 2010 data.

    LREEs $/Kg USD*
    Lanthanum (Ln) 16.80
    Cerium 12.00
    Praseodymium (Pr) 42.50
    Neodymium (Nd) 43.00
    Samarium (Sm) 12.50

    HREEs $/Kg USD*
    Europium (Eu) 570.00
    Gadolinium (Gd) 7.86
    Terbium (Tb) 545.00
    Dysprosium (Dy) 288.00
    Holmium (Ho) 41.32
    Erbium (Er) 48.70
    Thulium (Tm) 790.00
    Ytterbium (Yb) 155.30
    Lutetium (Lu) 250.00
    Yttrium (Y) 10.01

    *Note that prices are volatile, and are subject to change regularly.

    HREEs are extremely rare in economic quantities, and therefore they are more valuable than the more common LREEs.

    The current world REEs supply is exported almost exclusively from China, but the Chinese demand for these elements is projected to match the domestic supply in the near future. If the projected demand for REEs comes to fruition, the rest of the world will be forced to secure its own strategic supply. In short, the near-term production of REEs located outside of China will be a crucial step in creating a greener future for the entire planet.
  7. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2010 16:15

    posted by: Stans Energy | comments : 0 Comment
    October 15, 2010

    Stans Energy Corp. (TSX-V:RUU) (‘Stans’ or the ‘Company’) is pleased to announce a solely subscribed private placement with ‘Rare Capital Fund’ for 3,000,000 common shares at a price of $0.50 CDN, for the gross proceeds of $1,500,000. No warrants or fees apply. Closing is subject to exchange approval.
  8. [verwijderd] 29 oktober 2010 16:16

    Chris Berry from House Mountain Partners, LLC reviews Stans Energy Corp.

    Chris Berry’s investment highlights include :

    Has 100% ownership of the only past-producing HREE open pit mine outside of China (Kutessay II).
    Holds a 25 yr mine license in Kyrgyzstan, the only foreign company in the country with an REE mining license.
    Owns option to purchase KCMP, an REE processing plant located in close proximity to Kutessay II used by the Soviets when Kutessay II was in production.
    Kutessay II produced 80% of all REEs for the Soviets for 30 yrs and was only 1/3 mined using historical estimates.
    First drill hole targeted for Kutessay III, located adjacent to Kutessay II and thought to be double its size.
    Ore field located 150 km from Bishkek with solid infrastructure and labor including paved roads and power.
    Metallurgy of REEs was solved by the Soviets at great expense.
    Forecast demand for HREEs to outstrip supply by 2014.
    China controls 95% of REE production globally and there is an imminent shortage of production-ready projects outside of China. Kutessay II offers a rare opportunity to cost effectively produce REEs on a faster basis relative to its peers.
  9. forum rang 10 voda 30 oktober 2010 15:33
    China tempert zorg over zeldzame metalen
    30 oktober 2010, 12:20 | ANP
    HANOI (AFN) - China heeft zaterdag geprobeerd de zorgen van de Verenigde Staten weg te nemen over de schaarste aan aardmetalen die gebruikt worden in electronische apparaten.

    Dit onderwerp kwam aan de orde in en onderonsje tussen de Amerikaanse minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, Hillary Clinton, en haar Chinese collegaYang Jeichi toen ze elkaar ontmoetten bij een Oost-Azië top in Hanoi.

    De Verenigde Staten vrezen dat China de export van de hoeveelheden aardmetalen gaat beperken door quota. Die verontrusting is toegenomen, doordat China stopte met de uitvoer naar Japan als gevolg van een conflict over eilanden, die beide landen claimen als grondgebied. Inmiddels zijn de prijzen van de zeldzame grondstoffen torenhoog gestegen en maken ondernemingen haast om bronnen buiten China aan te boren.

    Volgens Amerikaanse functionarissen, die niet bij naam genoemd willen worden, heeft Clinton het onderwerp te sprake gebracht. Yang zou haar verzekerd hebben dat China de aardmetalen niet wil inzetten als een middel om politieke of economische doelen te bereiken.

  10. [verwijderd] 30 oktober 2010 16:47
    quote:

    voda schreef:

    Die verontrusting is toegenomen, doordat China stopte met de uitvoer naar Japan als gevolg van een conflict over eilanden, die beide landen claimen als grondgebied.
    [/quote]

    [quote]
    Yang zou haar verzekerd hebben dat China de aardmetalen niet wil inzetten als een middel om politieke of economische doelen te bereiken.
    Duidelijk. Toch?
  11. forum rang 10 voda 31 oktober 2010 16:11
    Japan en Vietnam gaan zeldzame metalen winnen
    31 oktober 2010, 15:43 | ANP
    HANOI (AFN) - Vietnam heeft Japan gekozen als partner voor de winning van zeldzame aardmetalen die gebruikt worden in elektronische apparaten. Dit zei de Japanse premier Naoto Kan zondag.

    Met de stap zou Japan zich minder afhankelijk maken van China voor de levering van deze metalen. China staakte onlangs tijdelijk de uitvoer van aardmetalen als gevolg van een conflict over eilanden die beide landen claimen als hun grondgebied. Afgelopen week maakten Japan en India ook al bekend te gaan samenwerken op het terrein van aardmetalen.

    Japan en Vietnam hebben verder afgesproken dat een Japans bedrijf een kerncentrale gaat bouwen in Vietnam. Hitachi, Toshiba en Mitsubishi Heavy Industries zijn grote spelers op het gebied van kernenergie.

  12. [verwijderd] 31 oktober 2010 16:27
    quote:

    Garrulus schreef:

    gelukkig, mijn bundeltje REE, MCP, NEM is weer aan het stijgen, zit te denken om er nog wat meer bij te kopen nu ze uit het dal komen, met de dollar zo laag, of is dat onverstandig?
    Ik zou even wachten en kijken wat dit met de prijs doet:

    www.beursgorilla.nl/nieuws-item.asp?t...
  13. [verwijderd] 1 november 2010 07:02
    Exact, Stans is de grote onbekende bij de retail investors, maar niet bij de partijen die uiteindelijk bepalen of een mijn geopend gaat worden: industriële conglomeraten, overheden en banken. Zowel Duitsland, Rusland als Japan weten heel goed wat er in Kirgizië te halen valt aan HREE...

    Ik denk dat je goed zit met Stans als je serieus investeert in de REE-industrie. Wat dus iets ander is dan speculeren op koerssprongen omdat exploratiebedrijfje X een drill resultaat bekend maakt. Dat heeft niks met investeren te maken.

  14. [verwijderd] 3 november 2010 15:39
    Rare earth stock investors are about to get clobbered

    11/3/2010 7:31:54 AM | Matt Badiali, DailyWealth
    You'll find safer and comparably large returns in uranium miners right now

    Oh boy... the crowd is about to get killed in resource stocks again.

    And this time, the Grim Reaper comes in the form of "rare earth element" stocks...

    As my editor Brian Hunt told you last week, "'Rare earth elements' is the name of an exotic group of metals, including strange-sounding members like lanthanumand cerium. These little-known metals are crucial components of electric car batteries, wind turbines, and advanced electronics (the kind in your iPod or cell phone)."

    Rare earth elements are the hottest thing in the mining world right now. China holds a virtual monopoly on the rare earth industry. And in the past few months, the Chinese have reduced the amount of rare earths they're willing to ship to other countries.

    This has created a frenzy for the handful of rare earth element plays in the stock market.

    Take Molycorp (NYSE: MCP) for instance...

    Molycorp controls the MountainPass mine. In the 1970s and 1980s, before China got in the game, the U.S. was the world's largest producer of rare earths. A big part of that production came from MountainPass. The mine is shuttered now, but it remains the largest developed rare earth deposit in North America.

    Just a few months ago, Molycorp went public at $14 per share... It has ridden a hype wave to a 150% gain and a $3 billion market cap.

    Here's the thing: The demand for rare earth elements isn't that large. According to the MIT Technology Review, it will be 125,000 tons this year. The entire market is worth less than $1 billion per year. In other words, Molycorp's market cap is three times the size of the annual market of its proposed product (yes, that market is going to grow, but it will remain relatively small).

    There is another huge problem with Molycorp... It isn't owning up to the amount of work required to meet its promises to shareholders. Right now, the only place you can refine the rocks into pure metal is in China. Molycorp will need to spend over $511 million to build the infrastructure it needs to compete with the existing Chinese industry.

    (The company estimates it can be in full production by 2012. In my experience, most mines develop hiccups along the way. Full production is likely to occur sometime in 2013.)

    Finally, the potential for loss at this stock price is huge... I calculated the net present value for Molycorp. This is a rough estimate of the fair value for the stock right now. It takes into account assets, debt, and future cash flows. I also figured out the company's the value by comparables (like valuing your house by looking at the recent deals in your neighborhood).

    These two methods produced values between $570 million and $636 million.

    Today, Molycorp trades for $2.94 billion. That's between 4.6 times and 5.1 times larger than its current value.

    Remember, this company must spend hundreds of millions of dollars over the next few years. It won't be cash flow positive for at least three years. It won't even know if it can get the loans for the construction before next summer. In other words, the downside risk here is enormous... yet the stock is priced for perfection. If bad news comes (and it comes often in mining), shares of Molycorp could fall a long, long way.

    If you already own shares, congratulations. You've made a heck of a trade. Now, it's time to tighten up your trailing stops. Don't hesitate to sell. Aggressive traders can consider shorting the stock (although it might be hard to get shares to borrow).

    If you're on the sidelines watching the hype build and thinking about hopping in here, you're crazy. It's much too dangerous... the assets are much too expensive. You'll find safer and comparably large returns in uranium miners right now.

    Disclosure: The author does not own positions, long or short, in any of the stocks mentioned
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