Nieuws en info hier plaatsen (deel 4)

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Mechel Reports Operational Results for Q1 of 2020

Leading Russian mining and metals company Mechel announced operational results for Q1 of 2020. Mechel PAO’s Chief Executive Officer Oleg Korzhov said “Today we can safely say that the spread of COVID-19 in 1Q2020 had no significant impact on our production and sales. In the mining division that was largely due to our proactive work on extending annual contracts with our Asian customers throughout 2019. We also shifted supply schedules for long-term contracts and redistributed sales geography for certain products where needed. We shipped off volumes planned for 1Q2020 through our sales network. We expect that sales performance targets for the second quarter will also be met. For several accounting periods, prices have maintained fairly high volatility. At the same time, in May we have noted a trend for stronger global prices for our key product, coking coal concentrate, which we consider a positive market factor. Despite the pandemic, the steel division’s sales remained stable in 1Q2020. We foresee a negative impact on sales in 2Q2020. April-May is the traditional time for a spike in demand from construction and steel sales companies, but with ubiquitous restrictive measures in place, we have seen no expected sales increase in early second quarter.”

Voor cijfers, zie pdf.

Source : Strategic Research Institute,
JSPL Update on Global Ventures

During 4QFY20, Jindal Shadeed recorded production of 0.57 million tonnes of steel as against 0.45 million tonnes in 4QFY19. Oman business reported revenues at USD 268 million and EBITDA at USD 63.8 million. For the financial year ending March’20, Jindal Shadeed reported production at 1.87 million tonnes and sales at 1.88 million tonnes. The Revenues and EBITDA for FY20 came at USD 910 million vs USD1019 million in FY19 and USD 138 million Vs USD 181 million in FY19 respectively.

Mozambique: During this quarter, the mine at Chirodzi produced 591KT ROM up 14% YoY. The Mozambique operations continued to ramp up production this year and ended FY20 at 2.5 million tonnes,rise of 47% compared to 1.71 million tonnes in FY19. Mozambique operations reported EBITDA at USD 2 million for 4QFY20 and USD10.4 million for FY20.

Australia: During 4QFY20, both Wongawilli & Russell Vale mines remained under care & maintenance. In the reported quarter, JSPAL and WCL pursued their restructuring proposal with the NSW Supreme Court to restructure the debt and make it more sustainable. WCL continues to work towards securing the approval for its Russell Vale mines.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
US Steel Production Capacity Utiliztion in Week 21 Improves WoW

American Institute of Iron & Steel announced that in the week ending on May 23, 2020, domestic raw steel production was 1,191,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 53.2 percent. Production was 1,880,000 net tons in the week ending May 23, 2019 while the capability utilization then was 80.8 percent. The current week production represents a 36.6 percent decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending May 23, 2020 is up 0.8 percent from the previous week ending May 16, 2020 when production was 1,181,000 net tons and the rate of capability utilization was 52.7 percent.

Adjusted year-to-date production through May 23, 2020 was 33,231,000 net tons, at a capability utilization rate of 70.3 percent. That is down 14.7 percent from the 38,978,000 net tons during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 81.4 percent.

Broken down by districts, here's production for the week ending May 23, 2020 in thousands of net tons: North East: 93; Great Lakes: 395; Midwest: 127; Southern: 517 and Western: 59 for a total of 1191.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
Dear Voda,

We are sorry you couldn’t make it to the Kallanish Global Steel Markets webinar last Wednesday. For your convenience, we have made a recording available here so you can watch it at any time. At the end of the conference, there were a few questions which we didn’t have time to answer. Please see the answers shared below from the Kallanish editorial team.

Q: What is your view on energy transition in the steel sector in the post pandemic world? Will it gain pace or slow down?

A: On one side it could slow down because many steelmakers will have less capital to invest in the transformation of their sites. On the other hand, though, climate change and CO2 emission reductions will remain central therefore it is likely the overall strategy from steelmakers will continue to be toward greener solutions. Interesting to notice also that EAF production could benefit due to its flexibility and steelmaking using scrap is often seen as the first step to reduce significantly CO2 emission.

Q: Do you have any updates on EU quota rates for imports and additional duty for Turkey?

A: The situation is rapidly evolving. What we can say is that many importers are stopping their orders because they fear lower safeguard quotas and the possible registration process for Turkish HRC ahead of temporary measures.

Q: Which European steel using sector will recover first?
A: From what we can see at the moment in Europe the construction industry is recovering more rapidly than other sectors. Automotive will remain strongly under pressure until at least the end of the current year as consumers demand has collapsed and governments seem to be more successful in investing in infrastructure and constructions.

Q: Where does the US election fit in to all this?

A: Simply - no clear place. Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, the US election dominated news cycles and policy decisions, cap-ex discussions and possible synergy/merger considerations. All those discussions are now coloured by the post-Covid-19 world. No matter who wins in November, here’s a short summary of some things - on the policy front - that will likely stay the same. The 232s have been derided by Biden, but they are a fundamentally protectionist and thus Democratic policy tool. I wouldn’t expect a wholesale rollback of the current tariffs, but I would expect to see more laurels tossed to traditional allies like the EU and Canada in the event of a Biden presidency. In a Trump presidency, I’d expect we’d see more of the same. Both candidates have been pouring bad rhetoric on China, so I wouldn’t expect any of the trade deals floated by the Trump campaign during his first term to be fully realised. The biggest changes are likely to be seen on the environmental and regulatory front. A Biden presidency will likely mean a bigger push for green steel and green energy, while a Trump presidency would represent a more “all of the above” strategy. Long-term, the US steel industry must go as green as possible - it’s only going to make more and more economic sense as technology improves and global standards tighten.

Q: Is China’s steel market strong enough to sustain such high iron ore prices?

A: The recent increase in iron ore prices to close to $100/dry metric tonne cfr Qingdao has been driven by two factors: disrupted Brazilian supply; and strong Chinese demand. On the Brazilian side of the equation, the mismanagement of the coronavirus and its rapid spread has replaced the weather as a key concern. Although mines have for the most part not been shut down, workforces have been disrupted and that is expected to continue in the near future. In China meanwhile, steel production is nearing record levels, again. Although the level of stimulus announced during the ‘two sessions’ fell short of expectations, it still injected trillions of yuan into the economy. The first signs of weakness emerged in recent days with a slowdown in the decline of steel inventories. Steelmakers remain profitable however, and so are likely to continue producing at high levels for weeks to come. That could mean China’s iron ore port stocks continue to deplete and iron ore prices could be supported. By the end of the year, the iron ore market should be much looser on both the supply and demand fronts. In the coming weeks however, support for high iron ore prices looks stubbornly persistent.

Q: Will the implementation of Egypt’s additional 10% import tax have a significant impact on trade flows from Turkey?

A: As far as hot rolled flat products are concerned, the imposition of an additional tariff by Egypt will be somewhat of a blow to Turkish suppliers as Egypt has been of growing importance for them so far in 2020. Turkey exported 108,435 tonnes of HS code 7208 to Egypt in the first quarter, which is 433,740t annualised for 2020. This compares to 286,643t in full-year 2019. Covid-19 would have of course curbed Egyptian imports anyway, with or without additional taxes, but this shows Egypt was a growing market for Turkish flats in Q1. When demand recovers in Egypt, however, it is questionable whether it will be satisfied completely by Ezz Steel, the only local producer of hot rolled flats. Imports may continue to be necessary. Some traders believe the extra cost from the duty will simply be passed on to consumers. Nevertheless, a number of traders are reported to be refusing to work with Egypt because of the unreliability of buyers there as well as credit availability issues. This has been an issue for CIS billet suppliers for some time.
Rebar imports, meanwhile, have been levied by Egypt with an anti-dumping duty since 2017 and with an additional safeguard measure since last year, meaning they have effectively dropped to zero.

» View the webinar again

If you enjoyed this webinar and are keen to know what we have planned, here is a list of our upcoming webinars to keep an eye out for.
South East Asia Steel Markets Webinar - July Edition
Scrap and Iron Ore Webinar - June Edition
Global Steel Markets Webinar - June Edition
Plus, don't forget we have two conferences (postponed from earlier in the year) to mark in your diary.
Asia Steel Markets - Ho Chi Minh City - 3-4 November 2020
Europe Steel Markets - Milan - 24-25 November 2020
As always, I look forward to hearing your feedback.

Caroline Macmillan
Kallanish Commodities
Copyright © 2020 Kallanish Ltd, All rights reserved.

Our headquarters is:
Britannia House, 1-11 Glenthorne Road, Hammersmith, London, W6 0LH, UK
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