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Chinese steel demand won't see significant growth in H2 - CISA

Chinese steel demand won’t see significant growth in the second half of the year, Mr Xu Lejiang president of China Iron and Steel Association said in an inner meeting on August 03.

The growth in Chinese steel demand is slowing down, because the country is shifting the economic growth pattern, Mr. Xu said, who cited a fall of 7.6 percentage points to 16.2% in industrial investment and a drop of 7.1 percentage points to 15.1% in total planned investment in new urban construction projects in the first half of the year when investment in tertiary industry rose 6.5 percentage points to 23.5%.

Mr Xu said that demand from major downstream steel consuming sectors are all slowing down, and fast growth in crude steel output adds to market problems and depress the price.

Profitability in CISA members dived 98.22% in year 2012 and the situation have no real improvement in the first half of the year as profit margin stayed at only 0.13%. in June, the profit, which had been falling for six months in a row, finally became negative, according to CISA.

Mr Xu said that restructuring and adjusting economic growth pattern are the predominant theme in next years.

Source -
China steel information centre and industry database
Steel prices likely to go up further due to weakening of rupee

Steel prices are likely to go up further due to weakening of rupee, a top official of Essar Steel said.

Mr Dilip Oommen MD and CEO of Essar Steel told reporters that "With dollar appreciating, there will be cost push. The price of steel has gone up and it could go up further depending on the dollar.”

He said the slowdown had affected sales in the industry. The growth rate, which was seven % 3-4 years ago is now about 3.5%.

Mr Oommen said that “Things are looking better in US and Europe and prices in China and Japan have started moving up. The growth of steel industry and economy go hand in hand.”

The company was eyeing an export target of 1.4 million tonnes of steel this year. Last year, it had exported 1.2 million tonnes, mainly to Europe and Africa.

Stressing the need to increase consumption, he said per capita consumption of steel in India was only 55 kg against the world average of 200 kg, adding that if India has to progress, our focus should be on infrastructure and industrial development.
Source - Business Standard
Overcapacity impacting global steel sector - Mr Mistry

The Hindu reported that year 2013 has been a challenging one for the steel industry which is facing the repercussions of a slowdown in the global economy but TATA Steel expects the measures it has in place to see through the tough times.

Addressing shareholders at the company’s 106 annual meeting, Mr Cyrus Mistry chairman of TATA Steel said that the global steel sector was impacted by overcapacity due to volatile raw material prices and demand weakness in key markets.

He added that “The next 18 to 24 months will be challenging for TATA Steel. Overcapacity in China and low demand in Europe are key concerns.”

Mr Mistry said that in spite of the challenging environment, the company has implemented a three million tonne capacity expansion at the Jamshedpur facility taking the capacity to 9.7 million tonnes per annum.

He said the Kalinganagar project would significantly strengthen its product portfolio.

Source - Hindu

TATA Steel surges most in four years

TATA Steel Ltd set to climb the most in more than four years in Mumbai trading after its first quarter profit almost doubled, aided by a one-time deferred tax gain at its European unit.

The shares soared as much as 9% to 263 rupees, the most since May 20, 2009, and traded at 256.65 rupees as of 9:23 a.m. local time. The surge helped pare the stock’s decline this year to 40%, compared with a 0.8 percent drop in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.

Group net income, including that of unit TATA Steel Europe Ltd., climbed to INR 11.4 billion (USD 186 million) in the three months ended June 30 from 5.98 billion rupees a year ago.

Mr Bhavesh Chauhan a Mumbai based analyst at Angel broking Ltd said that “TATA Steel’s performance in Europe was a positive surprise. The company has said it would be able to maintain the performance with its internal cost-saving measures.”

Higher production in Europe and India helped TATA Steel increase sales volumes, while cost-cutting measures boosted profitability. TATA Steel sold 3.14 million tonnes of the alloy in the last quarter in Europe, which accounts for two-thirds of its output, compared with 3.21 million tonnes a year earlier. Group shipments rose 7% to 6.1 million tonnes.

Source - Business Week

Had ik ook gelezen, maar de overcapiciteit speelt zo geen rol, wel de prijs en orders van het staal e.a gronstoffen, ondertussen zijn deze prijzen aan het aantrekken en imo denk ik dat deze nog niet volledig in de prijzen van de aandelen zit, vandaar verklaard dit misschien waarom Cramer van de week zegde dat we nog 20 %moeten stijgen, maar we hebben geduld.
Forecast of an iron ore glut divides analysts

Heraldsun reported that there is growing evidence of a looming glut in Australia's biggest export product, iron ore. And the price of iron ore will plunge to AUD 80 per tonne by 2015, piling intense pressure on companies such as Fortescue Metals Group.

Analysts at the investment bank have forecast a glut in iron ore as producers from Rio Tinto to Brazil's Vale increase production. Supply of iron ore is expected to hit record levels just as growth in China drops to the slowest pace in a generation.

Goldman Sachs said that the surplus will reach 82 million tonnes next year the most since 2008 and the glut will keep growing through to 2017. But the 82 million tonne surplus anticipated by Goldman compares with projections of 27 million tonnes by Deutsche Bank and 8.8 million tonnes by Morgan Stanley.

Source -
Chinese steelmakers raise prices for September delivery

Buoyed by robust transactions since July, the nation's leading steelmaker, Baoshan Iron and Steel Co Ltd (Baosteel), raised the ex factory price of hot rolled coils by CNY 150 (USD 24.5) per metric tonne for September delivery on Aug 13, and the price of other major products was marked up by CNY 120 per tonne.

It is the first time the Shanghai-based steel mill has increased product prices since May. Baosteel lowered prices for its main products in June and July on soft demand, and kept prices unchanged in August.

The steel market is showing signs of a rebound. In the 10 most recent trading days, benchmark Shanghai steel futures surged from CNY 3,418 per tonne to CNY 3,760 per tonne, reflecting strong confidence in the market, Shanghai Securities Daily reported.

Wuhan Iron and Steel Co Ltd, based in central China, also lifted its core product prices by CNY 100 per tonne for September delivery on Aug 12.

Several factors are working in favor of steel makers. Steel demand from property development, automobile and home appliance manufacturing is recovering; crude steel output has been falling for three consecutive months; and steel inventories keep dropping. These factors will shore up market sentiment, according to an analyst at

Source - China Daily
Shagang Group sees 91.04% rise in net profit in Jan to July

On August 16, Jiangsu Province-based Chinese steelmaker Shagang Group issued its financial results for the January to July period of the current year.

Accordingly, Shagang achieved a sales revenue of RMB 132.83 billion (USD 21.74 billion) in the January to July period, up 4.18% year on year. Meanwhile, the company's net profit for the given period totaled RMB 1.275 billion (USD 209 million), indicating an increase of 91.04 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2012.

During the first seven months, Shagang produced 18.03 million tonne of pig iron, 20.16 million tonne of crude steel and 19.28 million tonne of finished steel products, up 5.3%, 4.8% and 2.9% year on year respectively.

Source - Visit for more

BRUSSEL (AFN) - De wereldwijde staalproductie is in juli met 2,7 procent gestegen naar 132 miljoen ton in vergelijking met een jaar eerder. Dat maakte de brancheorganisatie World Steel Association dinsdag bekend.

In China ging de productie met 6,2 procent omhoog naar 65,5 miljoen ton en in Japan nam die met 0,5 procent toe tot 9,3 miljoen ton. De Russische productie daalde echter met 2,4 procent naar 5,7 miljoen ton. In de Verenigde Staten was sprake van een productiegroei met 3,3 procent tot 7,6 miljoen ton.

In Duitsland, de grootste staalfabrikant van Europa, was sprake van een productiedaling met 5,4 procent naar 3,4 miljoen ton. De Franse staalproductie ging met 9 procent omlaag naar 1,3 miljoen ton.

De bezettingsgraad in de 64 landen die zijn aangesloten bij de staalorganisatie kwam in juli uit op 76,8 procent, tegen 79,2 procent in juni.

ArcelorMittal advies omlaag naar underweight - Morgan Stanley

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Morgan Stanley heeft het advies voor ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) verlaagd naar underweight van equalweight. Het koersdoel blijft EUR8,50. De markt prijst een herstel in, maar volgens onderzoek van de analisten zijn de verbeterende volumes slechts het gevolg van een ongebruikelijke voorraadcyclus in de tweede helft en is de reele vraag niet verbeterd. De koers is in hun visie te ver opgelopen en ze schatten het neerwaarts potentieel in op 19%. Het aandeel is maandag gesloten op EUR10,18. (LDF)

Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200;

A warning from the iron ore futures spread

The futures spread is a good predictor of the present, a report highlighting that a spread of more than USD 20 per tonne between the 6 month forward iron price and the 24 month forward iron ore price is a robust SHORT signal for spot iron ore and iron ore equities whilst a spread of less than USD 6 per tonne is a robust LONG signal. The spread between the 6 month forward iron price and the 24 month forward iron ore price has reached USD 21.83 per tonne and whilst iron ore price momentum is still strong the spread suggests that spot iron ore prices are overbought at USD 138.70 per tonne.

Timing model suggests spot iron ore prices nearing a top. The spread between the 6 month and 24 month iron ore futures price has expanded to USD 21.83 per tonne as at 12 August. This is above the USD 20 per tonne level that precedes our SHORT spot iron ore signal, although our model requires momentum confirmation by a 3% fall in the spot iron ore price below its trailing one month high to actually trigger the SHORT signal.

The fact that our timing model could be triggered imminently indicates to us that near term sentiment which we believe is represented by the 6 month future is now well ahead of longer term fundamentals which we believe is represented by the 24 month future. Our timing model last issued a LONG spot iron ore signal on June 5th 2013 after the spread reached a low of USD 4.97 per tonne on May 29th 2013. Spot iron ore is up 26% from a low of USD 110.40 per tonne on May 31 to USD 138.70 per tonne.

But strong momentum means prices may rise further. The spot iron ore price may continue to rise in the near term despite the cautionary signal from the elevated futures spread. Iron ore exhibits strong price momentum trends as the physical market alternates between restocking and destocking cycles. Spot iron ore is currently trending strongly upwards with prices having risen USD 8.50 per tonne WoW to USD 138.70 per tonne as at August 12 due to we believe, restocking activity by Chinese steel mills.

Picking the precise inflection point when steel mills will step out of the market is challenging, which is why our timing model waits for a 3% spot price reversal before triggering a signal. We note that it has been 69 days since our LONG spot iron ore signal was triggered, above the historical minimum period between 10% spot iron ore price corrections of one month.

Read through for equities. Our analysis in the futures spread is a good predictor of the present concluded that when a LONG/SHORT signal is triggered by our timing model, it has tended to be followed by periods of outperformance and underperformance by iron ore equities. We have extended this analysis to short term trading opportunities and found there may be a short-term trading opportunity around SHORT signals.

A basket of global iron ore equities has typically run up prior to a SHORT signal, rising 11% on average from 40 weekdays to 10 weekdays prior to the signal, before falling 16% on average from 10 weekdays prior to the signal to 18 weekdays after the signal. The average fall from the signal point to bottom alone was 11%. LONG signals presented no such trading opportunity, implying that any out performance in equities from rising spot iron ore prices happens some time after the signal.

Source - Market Realist
Shares of the world's largest steel producer are are trading at its lowest price since 2004. ArcelorMittal is trading at less than half of book value with a PEG ratio of -5 and a P/E ratio of 14.

Although the steel industry has been hammered by the Great Recession, there are signs of economic recovery, especially in Europe where the company is based. Emerging markets remain fertile territory for expansion.

ArcelorMittal supplies 20% of automakers' steel worldwide. In emerging markets, which represent 80% of global demand, the company has been aggressive. It now boasts a 30% share of the Brazilian steel market and is fighting for an increased presence in India and China.

Although it owns minority interests in two Chinese steel producers, it will be an uphill struggle for ArcelorMittal to establish any kind of dominant role in China. China is the world's largest consumer of steel, yet the Chinese government has kept tight reins on the market and has blocked any attempts at majority holdings by foreign companies.
Morgan Stanley downgraded ArcelorMittal (MT_) to sell from hold. Cramer said everyone seems to hate this company all of a sudden, but he likes steel companies at current valuations. MT fell 1.9% to $13.27.

Steel giant ArcelorMittal (MT) announced that it plans to restart an expansion project at its Monlevade and Juiz de Fora sites in Brazil. The project expansion is expected to increase the annual production capacity from 3.75 million tons to 4.9 million tons.

Monlevade is expected to produce 1.05 million tons per year of coil on capital investment of $140 million. The expanded wire rod from Monlevade is expected to enhance supply of added value products mainly to the domestic construction and automotive industries.

On the other hand, Rebar capacity at Juiz de Fora will also be increased from 50,000 to 400,000 tons a year and the site’s melt shop will produce an extra 200,000 tons of billets per year using its new ladle and new sixth strand in the continuous caster. Additional rebar at the Juiz de Fora site is expected to go into downstream cut and bend operations and to civil construction end users.

ArcelorMittal expects demand to resume in Brazil and, based on this, the company restarted its wire rod mill expansion. This $108 million project is expected to be completed in two phases with the first phase mainly aimed at downstream facilities while the upstream portion of the investment remains on hold. Project start-up is scheduled for 2015.

ArcelorMittal Monlevade produces for domestic and international markets and the Juiz de Fora site produces mainly for the domestic market.

Few weeks ago, ArcelorMittal released its second-quarter 2013 results. The company posted a net loss of $0.8 billion or 44 cents per share in the quarter compared with a net income of $1 billion or 66 cents per share a year ago. Barring one-time items (restructuring and impairment charges), loss was 32 cents per share. Analysts polled by Zacks were expecting earnings of 9 cents a share on average for the quarter. The results were impacted by lower pricing and weak demand.

Revenues declined 10.1% year over year to $20.2 billion in the reported quarter and missed the Zacks Consensus estimate of $20.7 billion. Sales increased 2.3% on a sequential basis due to higher steel shipment volumes. Shipments declined 1.8% year over year to 21.3 million metric tons in the quarter.

ArcelorMittal currently maintains a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Leuk dat anderen nu ook eens deze draad aanvullen. Bedankt!

Steel production surges in China but market holds firm

China daily crude steel output rallied 2.7% from late July to stand at 2.14 million tonnes in the first ten days of Aug, rising above the mark of 2.1 million tonnes again after a sliding to 2.08 million tonnes in late July.

Impressive comeback has been catalyzed by improved demand from the industry and infrastructure resulting in destocking after nearly 2 years of sluggishness.

The comeback of output growth is expected to add to pressure on the supply side but Chinese social steel inventories have dropped for 21 weeks in a row, indicating smooth destocking and sound demand for the alloy. Meanwhile, steel stockpiles at CISA members fell 190,000 tonnes, or 1.5%, to 12.16 mln tonnes in early Aug, a second straight weekly drop.

China, as usual, produced the maximum quantity of steel in the world during July at 65.47 million tonnes jumping by 6.2% YoY. Chinese steel production is expected to touch 780 million tonnes this year growing by 9% over last year which is expected to translate to nearly 100 million tonnes of additional iron ore demand, outpacing analysts' estimated increase in global seaborne iron ore supply of 48 million to 65 million tonnes this year.

A rally in steel production is expected give traction to iron ore demand which has been on roller coaster ride climbing by nearly 29% since May touching USD 143 per tonne.

Floor space for newly started construction projects jumped 8.4 percent in January to July from a year earlier, compared with a 3.8 percent rise in the first six months and a decline in the first quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Beijing's plan to boost investment in urban infrastructure and railways is also pushing steelmakers to keep output high.

Cumulatively the iron ore and steel market seems set for spirited run in H2. Overall improvement in global economy with USA and EU coming out of recession is a positive sign

Source - Strategic Research Institute
Steel companies focus on exports to benefit from weak rupee

Economic Times reported that with the rupee continuing with its free fall against the dollar, steel companies are redrawing their export strategies to make the most of windfall gains coming their way. In this new found thrust on exports, Indian steel makers are increasingly looking at markets in the Middle East & North Africa, South Asia and even Europe to beat low demand at home.

The fall in rupee will make imports costlier, thereby curbing the volume in next few months. This has brought some cheer to steel companies which are going through one of their most depressing phases.

Mr CS Verma chairman of SAIL said that "Rupee depreciation has helped steel exports which have gone up in last few months.”

SAIL hopes to double exports to 7 lakh tonnes this year, up from 3.7 lakh tonne in 2012-13.

Essar Steel, one of the largest steel exporters, hopes to raise exports by over 25% to 1.4 million tonne this year, up from 1.1 million tonne it did last year. A company official said that "We are exporting to Middle East, Africa, South East Asia, and even Europe.”

Mr Giriraj Daga analyst at Nirmal Bang Securities said that "Rupee depreciation, along with a weak domestic steel market and capacity expansions, is forcing steel producers to sell more abroad.” This year, steel exports crossed one million mark to touch 1.13 million tonne in what is a seasonally weak first quarter.

A JSPL spokesperson said that "We want to increase exports to 15% of our increased production base in 2013-14. We see huge opportunities for export, particularly in Middle East & North Africa.”

Source - Economic Times

Worldsteel update on crude steel production in July 2013

World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the World Steel Association was 132 million tonnes in July 2013, an increase of 2.7% compared to July 2012.

China - 65.5 million tonnes up by 6.2% YoY
Japan - 9.3 million tonnes up by 0.5% YoY
US - 7.6 million tonnes up by 3.3% YoY
India - 6.7 million tonnes up by 4.7% YoY
Russia - 5.7 million tonnes down by 2.4% YoY
South Korea - 5.6 million tonnes down by 5.8% YoY
Germany - 3.4 million tonnes down by 5.4% YoY
Turkey - 2.8 million tonnes down by 10.1% YoY
Ukraine -2.8 million tonnes up by 8.8% YoY
France - 1.3 million tonnes down by 9.0% YoY
Spain - 1.0 million tonnes down by 3.4% YoY

The crude steel capacity utilisation ratio for the 64 countries in July 2013 declined to 76.8% from 79.2% in June 2013. Compared to July 2012, it is -0.8 percentage points lower.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
US raw steel production update

In the week ending August 17th 2013, domestic raw steel production was 1,878,000 net tonne while the capability utilization rate was 78.4%. Production was 1,897,000 net tonne in the week ending August 17th 2012, while the capability utilization then was 76.3%.

The current week production represents a 1% decrease from the same period in the previous year. Production for the week ending August 17th 2013 is up 0.9% from the previous week ending August 10th 2013 when production was 1,862,000 net tonne and the rate of capability utilization was 77.7%.

Adjusted YTD production through August 17th 2013 was 60,992,000 net tonne, at a capability utilization rate of 77.1%. That is a 4.5% decrease from the 63,845,000 net tonne during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 77.8%.

Broken down by districts for the week ending August 17th 2013 in thousands of net tonne
North East: 219
Great Lakes: 617
Midwest: 245
Southern: 709
Western: 88

Source - Strategic Research Institute
Good for steel and good for all - Mr Gibson

Mr Thomas J Gibson president of the American Iron and Steel Institute said that the US steel industry is the solutions provider for energy development, as the pipe and tube products that steelmakers produce are integral to the exploration, production and transmission of natural gas and oil.

Mr Gibson said that despite our world leading levels of energy efficiency, the steel industry consumes substantial amounts of energy each year.

He said that domestic steel manufacturers, including many in Pennsylvania, face challenges on the energy front. We are subject to intense international competition, often against industry in countries where energy costs are subsidized. Regulatory policies enacted on energy providers raise costs for steel companies and threaten our competitiveness.

Congress must craft a national energy policy that ensures low costs for domestic manufacturers and allows the steel industry to maximize productivity and international competitiveness.

Congress can accomplish this by fully developing domestic natural gas, oil, coal and nuclear power; ensuring that federal regulations do not unilaterally raise the cost of domestic energy sources; harnessing the benefits of natural gas from shale formations; and approving the Keystone XL pipeline.

Development of these resources means greater demand for steel. That translates into more jobs in Pennsylvania, and that's good for everyone.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
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