Nieuws en info hier plaatsen (deel 4)

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Technische cocktail van ArcelorMittal

NICO BAKKER | VRIJDAG 20 SEPTEMBER 2013, 12:53 uur | 4074 keer gelezen |

Deze week bereiken mij veel vragen of het hoofdfonds ArcelorMittal koopwaardig is. Vrijwel alle aandelen gaan omhoog, beurzen staan er goed gemutst bij, dus het staalfonds zal ook wel stijgen, zo wordt geredeneerd. Welnu, ik kan u zeggen dat mijn marktlens een technische cocktail toont met positieve en negatieve ingrediënten. Ik zal ze voor u benoemen en aangeven wanneer het mijns inziens technisch verantwoord is om aankopen te doen.

Laat ik beginnen met de belangrijkste technische bouwsteen en dat is het gegeven dat de koers onder een dalende gemiddeldelijn beweegt. Er is dus sprake van een downtrend, de tendens tot dalen overheerst. Een ander negatief element is de zwarte candle van deze week tegen dezelfde dynamische trendlijn. Dit bevestigt in ieder geval topvorming en Weerstand op afgerond 11,00. Zolang de koers onder 11,00 noteert, blijft de downtrend intact. Op het 11,00 niveau ligt ook nog eens een 50% retracementgrens, een extra hobbel in het veld.

Nu de positieve ingrediënten op een rijtje. Vanaf 8,35, de meest recente bodem is een korte termijn opleving (korte termijn uptrend wat mij betreft) gaande, waarbij de koers omhoog kruipt in een stijgingskanaal. Mijn swingteller springt deze week op +1, veelal het startschot voor een nieuwe upswing. Tot slot de stand van de RSI, die ruim boven de 50-lijn noteert.

Het scenario

De mix van positieve en negatieve ingrediënten vraagt om enige terughoudendheid. Een vooralsnog neutrale houding is wellicht het beste. De spelers weten even geen richting te kiezen, dus actieve beleggers kijken toe, niet waar? Maar gezien het totale marktbeeld hebben de bulls toch wel wat streepjes voor, maar dan moeten ze wel hun krachten tonen. Dit doen ze bij een witte weekcandle met slotkoers boven ruim 11,00 en een swingteller op +2. Dat zet de weg open naar 13,75, de top in januari dit jaar. Daarna komt 17,00 in beeld.

Kortom, het licht staat nu niet op groen, wellicht volgende week. Dan meedoen met de bulls, in de wetenschap het eerste stuk van de nieuwe uptrend te missen.

Voor grafiek, zie link:
Decree on reopening of Riva plants almost ready

AGI reported that government is working on a decree that should allow Riva, owner of one of Europe's largest steel mills, to reopen. Riva halted operations in northern Italy and sent home 1,400 workers after an asset seizure blocked banking operations, making it impossible to run the plants.

Economic Development Minister Flavio Zanonato said that "The decree should be ready early next week. The decree will later be converted to law by the Chamber of Deputies after possible amendments.”

Source - AGI
ThyssenKrupp wins banks support to extend credit lines - Report

Germany's ThyssenKrupp won support from banks to extend credit lines worth EUR 2.5 billion as the steelmaker is grappling with billions of debt and its ailing Americas business.

Pressure has been rising on Chief Executive Heinrich Hiesinger to raise cash as the company is at risk of breaching loan covenants when its financial year ends on September 30.

A consortium of banks has now agreed to renew the credit lines, the weekly business magazine said on Saturday, without citing the source of the information.

Separately, WirtschaftsWoche said a planned share sale may reap as much as EUR 1.6 billion including a so-called hybrid bond that will carry an 8-percent interest rate.

The magazine said that capital raising measures are positively received by investors, especially in Germany where investors would be willing to offer up even more funds.

Source - Reuters

AK Steel (AKS) continues their pattern of letting down investors shortly after big runs. Every time investors seem to get a good piece of news either from the company or analysts it is quickly offset by the company doing something to destroy market cap. After last week's rise the company came out and provided guidance that was weaker than the market expected and also stated that a loss would be reported for the quarter. We still have a neutral stance as we stated last week (article here) on the stock and believe that it will outpace names like U.S. Steel (X), however because of the volatility and risk we do favor U.S. Steel. AK Steel is for traders and U.S. Steel is for investors.
Ample supply may keep pressure on iron ore when China returns

Reuters reported that Plentiful supply of iron ore may weigh on spot prices next week when Chinese mills return from a long holiday weekend, unless steel demand picks up pace.

Physical trading of iron ore was limited with top market China away for the Mid Autumn Festival on Thursday and Friday.

Iron ore swaps steadied on Friday after steep gains in the previous session in line with risk assets globally after the US Federal Reserve left its economic stimulus intact.

A Singapore based trader said that we expect more supply availability from the big miners and that could drag iron ore prices lower. Chinese demand is stable but there's just far more material available in the market. Still banking on firm Chinese demand, global iron ore miners are forging ahead with expansion plans.

Rio Tinto loaded the first shipment of iron ore from its expanded annual capacity in Australia of 290 million tonnes earlier this month. The world's No. 2 producer is looking to lift output to 265 million tonnes this year from around 200 million tonnes in 2012.

A sustained decline in Chinese steel prices cut appetite for iron ore this month. Iron ore, the biggest revenue earner for Rio and other global miners such as Vale, has fallen 4.3% so far in September after a three month climb.

Shanghai rebar futures fell for a seventh straight session to hit a seven week low on Wednesday, just before the Chinese went on break, as steel demand looked slower during a typically strong consumption season.

Mr Jamie Pearce head of iron ore broking at SSY Futures said that "If we don't get the strong initial reaction from rebar or strong (spot iron ore) tender prices next week, then probably the swaps market will go back to levels pre Fed announcement."

Source - Reuters

Staalproductie blijft kwakkelen
23-09-2013 15:50
Den Haag - De staalproductie in de westerse landen blijft kwakkelen. Terwijl de landen van de Europese Unie in augustus 1,3 procent meer uit hun hoogovens haalden, daalde het volume in Noord-Amerika met 3,8 procent.
De dominantie op de staalmarkt van het Verre Oosten neemt steeds verder toe. In augustus kwam 68 procent van de gehele wereldproductie uit de regio. Met kop en schouders steekt China boven de andere landen uit. China was in augustus goed voor 66,3 miljoen ton. Het land produceert 5,5 keer zo veel staal als alle landen van de Europese Unie samen. In Nederland kromp de staalproductie met 1,3 procent tot 593.000 ton.

Schuldeisers soepel voor ThyssenKrupp

Gepubliceerd op 24 sep 2013 om 13:58 | Views: 706

ThyssenKrupp 15:48
EUR 17,51 +0,38 (+2,22%)

ArcelorMittal 15:49
EUR 10,49 +0,14 (+1,30%)

ESSEN (AFN/BLOOMBERG) - Het Duitse staalconcern ThyssenKrupp heeft van zijn schuldeisers toestemming gekregen om geen test af te hoeven leggen over zijn financiële positie bij een lening van 2,5 miljard euro. Dat maakte het bedrijf dinsdag bekend.

ThyssenKrupp hoeft nu eind deze maand geen test af te leggen over de schuldpositie. Als het bedrijf was gezakt voor die test, zou de lening kunnen worden ingetrokken. De lening werd in 2007 verstrekt door een bankensyndicaat.

ThyssenKrupp kampt met financiële problemen door de crisis in de staalsector en problemen met de geplande verkoop van verlieslatende fabrieken in de Verenigde Staten en Brazilië. Het concern zou zijn kapitaal willen verhogen en mogelijk willen afzien van de verkoop van de fabrieken, meldden bronnen.
Repeat carbon market delays hinder planning - Steelmakers

A series of delays in the European Union carbon market, the world’s largest by traded volume, is hampering business planning, according to a lobby group in Brussels representing steelmakers.

Factories and power stations in the 28 nation bloc will be able to exchange United Nations carbon offsets for EU permits from February next year, about 13 months later than indicated by the European Commission last year. The regulator is seeking information allowing it to determine the eligibility of some credits.

Mr Axel Eggert a spokesman for Eurofer the steel industry group representing companies from ArcelorMittal SA to Tata Steel Ltd said that “We are not happy with this delay. The commission is poorly implementing the directive.”

Carbon permits have jumped 21% since September 4 on speculation the less generous handout will curb any incentive to sell on traded markets such as ICE Futures Europe in London, the biggest emissions-trading exchange. Prices in the market, which has a surplus of allowances equivalent to a year’s supply, have more than doubled since reaching a record low in April.

Mr Isaac Valero-Ladron a spokesman for the commission said that the delay in implementing the offset exchange system will allow the commission to seek more data, the bloc’s regulator said in the statement. The late decision on free allowances was a mechanical application of law governing the process.

Source - Bloomberg
ThyssenKrupp denies report on possible sale of automotive unit

Reuters reported that German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp has denied a magazine report that it is preparing to sell its automotive division.

Weekly magazine Focus said in an advance release of an article to be published in Monday's edition that ThyssenKrupp, struggling with billions of euros of debt and a loss-making Steel Americas business, had asked potential investors for indicative offers for its automotive operations.

A spokeswoman at the Essen-based company told Reuters on Sunday that "That's nonsense. We want to develop the business further strategically."

Source - Reuters
ArcelorMittal issues statement on pending investigation in France

ArcelorMittal issued the following statement related to a pending investigation in France following a report in The Telegraph:

"This situation relates back to the merger between Arcelor and Mittal Steel in 2007. Following completion of this merger, certain hedge funds or their representatives brought legal proceedings regarding the exchange ratio and the merger process as a whole. Complaints in this respect have so far been dismissed by the Dutch securities regulator and by courts in the Netherlands and Luxembourg, where an appeal remains pending. Monetary damages claimed in the Luxembourg case amount to EUR 180M. In addition, a civil proceeding was initiated in France, which was not the domicile of either company involved in the merger, in 2012 claiming monetary damages of about EUR60K. This proceeding was stayed in July 2013, pending a preparatory investigation by a criminal judge magistrate triggered by the complaints of AAA and subsequently several hedge funds, including those who filed the claims before the Dutch and Luxembourg courts noted above. Under the French system, a judge magistrate investigates allegations brought by interested parties to determine whether there is sufficient basis for a person to be placed under investigation and/or subsequently prosecuted. ArcelorMittal has not been placed under investigation in such preparatory investigation. Any statements as to the possible consequences, including monetary, of the preparatory investigation are entirely speculative. ArcelorMittal believes that the allegations made and claims brought in respect of the merger process are without merit and that the exchange ratio and process complied with the requirements of applicable law, were consistent with previous guidance on the principles that would be used to determine the exchange ratio and that this merger exchange ratio was relevant and reasonable to shareholders of both merged entities. ArcelorMittal considers that its risk of loss in these matters is remote. ArcelorMittal believes that its public disclosure in respect of these matters is and has been in full compliance with applicable laws and regulations."

Source - Strategic Research Institute
Activistische belegger neemt belang in ThyssenKrupp

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Het activistische Europese investeringsfonds Cevian Capital heeft een belang van 5,2% in de Duitse staalfabrikant ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA.XE) genomen. Cevian stelt positief te zijn over de recente strategische koerswijziging van het management en vindt het aandeel ondergewaardeerd.

In reactie op de bekendmaking steeg het aandeel met ongeveer 5% op de beurs in Frankfurt.

Europese staalfabrikanten, waaronder ook het aan de Amsterdamse beurs genoteerde ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) en Aperam (056997440.LU), worstelen al enige tijd met een zwakke vraag en overcapaciteit. ThyssenKrupp is van plan om herstructureringen door te voeren door arbeidsplaatsen te schrappen, verliesmakende activiteiten in Noord- en Zuid-Amerika af te stoten en de Europese staalactiviteiten te stroomlijnen. De onderneming wil operationele kosten met ongeveer EUR2 miljard terugbrengen in de komende drie jaar.

Het is niet duidelijk of Cevian gaat aansturen op nog meer wijzigingen. Het investeringsfonds ziet zichzelf als een "activistische" eigenaar die belangen in grote Europese bedrijven opbouwt waarin de mogelijkheid bestaat om "corporate governance, operationele prestaties, strategie en structuur" te verbeteren, valt te lezen op de website.

Cevian heeft woensdag laten weten tot dusver het bestuur van ThyssenKrupp bemoedigend te vinden.

"De strategische ontwikkelingsmaatregelen die door het bestuur van ThyssenKrupp zijn aangenomen beginnen vruchten af te werpen", zei partner Jens Tischendorf van Cevian. Hij voegde toe dat Cevian de strategie van het management ondersteunt en voorziet "aanzienlijk potentieel" voor de onderneming.

Door Monica Houston-Waesch, vertaald en bewerkt door Levien de Feijter; Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200;

Italian steel companies battle for survival

Italian steel bosses are worried about expropriation due to numerous legal tussles they are facing.

Industry sources said that Italy’s Ilva, Europe’s largest steel plant, is planning to restart a furnace to boost production from late October, unaffected by a court ordered freeze on assets of its owner, the Riva family.

Two sources with knowledge of the situation said that the southern Italian plant, at the centre of a lengthy environmental scandal, will restart a blast furnace with a capacity of about 2 million tonnes per year, which will allow it to increase annual production to around 7.5 million tonnes.

Unlike Ilva, sister company Riva Acciaio halted operations at plants in northern Italy last week and sent home 1,400 workers after its funds were frozen as part of a probe into alleged environmental crimes at Ilva. Both Ilva and Riva Acciaio belong to the Riva family.

Earlier this year, tax police said they would seize assets worth EUR 8.1 billion from the Riva family, and a seizure order stemming from the proceedings was handed to Riva Acciaio last week, blocking its banking operations.

The halt at Riva Acciaio, which produces around 1.5 million tonnes of long steel products a year, is damaging steelmakers and their suppliers, whose combined annual turnover from the domestic market alone amounts to EUR 1.8 billion Italian business lobby Confindustria said.

One of the source said that “Ilva has not been affected by the latest seizure. It is currently running with two out of its five furnaces, and it will restart a third furnace in October.”

Sources said that two Ilva affiliates Taranto Energia and Ilva Servizi Marittimi which provide energy and shipping services to the steel operation, were included in last week’s seizure, but this has had no immediate impact on Ilva’s output.

The second sources said that “They have blocked the bank account of Taranto Energia, which made it impossible (for Taranto) to pay wages, but Ilva has guaranteed the company’s payments (including the wages), so there is no immediate impact.”

Source - Reuters
Latin America offers huge potential future steel demand

Mr Nicholas Walters communications director at the World Steel Association, told BNamericas that Latin America offers "huge and untapped" potential steel demand, driven by its needs for infrastructure investment.

Population expansion, increased urbanization and the "massive" requirements for investments in infrastructure paint a "very positive picture" for the region''s steel industry over the coming five to 15 years.

The demand potential is particularly great in Mexico and Brazil, where cities that have "grown rapidly are going to need to invest considerable amounts," as Rio de Janeiro is currently investing ahead of the 2016 Olympic Games.

He added that "We feel that this level of infrastructure investment is critical now and doesn't need an Olympic Games to drive it.”

Demand for steel in the region will be driven particularly by investment in housing, water and energy infrastructure and by growing consumer demand for manufactured goods.

One recent issue of concern in the Latin American steel sector relates to unfair trade practices or dumping by other steel producing countries, with China singled out by many industry insiders as the main culprit.

Mr Walters said that but efforts to tackle these practices at a national level by imposing antidumping duties and tightening up trade laws do not offer a solution.

In Mexico, a number of investigations into Chinese steel imports have been launched in recent months, with tougher import rules planned in response to unfair trade practices in the country, and subsidies offered by the Chinese government to the country''s steel producers.

Source – BNamericas
Thyssen may give up selling Brazil site - Report

Reuters reported that German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp may give up trying to sell its Brazil plant, part of its loss making Steel Americas business.

A person familiar with the matter told Reuters that having tried for more than a year to find a buyer for Steel Americas, which also includes a plant in Alabama, Thyssen is making no progress in negotiations with Companhia Siderurgica Nacional.

Source – Reuters

US weekly raw steel production update

In the week ending September 21, 2013, domestic raw steel production was 1,877,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 78.3%. Production was 1,751,000 net tons in the week ending September 21, 2012, while the capability utilization then was 70.4%. The current week production represents a 7.2% increase from the same period in the previous year.

Production for the week ending September 21, 2013 is up 1.8% from the previous week ending September 14, 2013 when production was 1,843,000 net tons and the rate of capability utilization was 76.9 %.

Adjusted year to date production through September 21, 2013 was 70,301,000 net tons, at a capability utilization rate of 77.2%. That is a 3.6% decrease from the 72,893,000 net tons during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 77.0%.

Broken down by districts, here's production for the week ending September 21, 2013 in thousands of net tons:
North East: 217
Great Lakes: 654
Midwest: 241
Southern: 685
Western: 80

Source – AISI
Spot iron ore firm but gains at risk on cautious China steel market

Spot iron ore prices edged higher as some Chinese mills replenished stocks but interest from the biggest importer of the commodity was slow reflecting a subdued steel market.

Supply of iron ore has outpaced demand this month, dragging down spot prices by almost 4% after gaining from June to August. Analysts expect the downward pressure from increased supply to persist for the rest of the year.

An iron ore trader in Shanghai said that "I don't think there's too much buying interest on the ground. Even iron ore cargoes at the ports are not selling that fast. While the Chinese economy is getting better, which means demand will continue if there's too much supply, you could see prices correcting to USD 120 to USD 125 in October."

Ore with 62% iron content, the industry benchmark, rose half a percent to USD 132.40 per tonne based on the latest available data from compiler Steel Index. The price is not far above the six week low of USD 131.10 reached on September 17th 2013.

Traders said that a similar price gauge by Platts was unchanged at USD 131.50. Activity in the physical market was also limited with most traders attending an industry conference in Qingdao, China, that kicks off on Wednesday.

Citi said in a note it sees iron ore slipping to USD 115 in the fourth quarter due to weaker than expected Chinese steel demand and more iron ore supply coming through.

Combined output from Australia's top three miners Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group is forecast to increase by a record 34 million tonnes in the fourth quarter from a year earlier and by 12 million tonnes from July to September, according to the investment bank.

Rio Tinto, the world's No. 2 iron ore producer, loaded the first shipment of iron ore from its expanded annual capacity in Australia of 290 million tonnes earlier this month. It is looking to lift output to 265 million tonnes this year from around 200 million tonnes in 2012.

Citi said that strong Chinese steel production and iron ore imports in recent months have masked weaker fundamentals. Excess steel production has been pushed onto international markets, while iron ore inventories have been rebuilt at lower prices. Pricing and supply dynamics have shifted in recent weeks and we expect weaker steel production and softer demand for imported ore in the Q4.

Source – Reuters
Global demand for rebar and wire rod will grow further next year - IREPAS

In the last session of the SteelOrbis Fall 2013 Conference & 69th IREPAS Meeting held on September 22-24 in Istanbul, Ms Kim Marti Subirana international commercial director of Celsa Group and chairman of the rebar and wire rod producers' committee, stated that global rebar and wire rod demand is growing, with further growth also expected next year.

Commenting that Europe is emerging from its recession and is witnessing a more positive construction outlook, which will drive steel demand higher, Marti added that the economic outlook for the US, Europe and Japan is positive and, since these three economies account for more than 70 percent of world GDP, the general outlook for the global economy is considered to be positive.

Celsa Group official said that European mills are adjusting their capacity carefully in line with demand, before going on to say that oversupply is still an overwhelming problem in the world steel industry, with some regions where capacities keep on rising, such as in China.

Mr Marti who was named as the new chairman of IREPAS during the Istanbul event, said that steel markets in the Gulf region, the GCC and more particularly in the UAE are performing quite well.

He also indicated a number of challenges which the steel industry is facing, namely, volatility of prices, overcapacity in the industry, credit restrictions and trade barriers, while also stating that steel trade is becoming more regionalized.

Source - Visit for more
ThyssenKrupp gets permission to relax terms on loan deals

ThyssenKrupp AG got permission from lenders to waive a test on its EUR 2.5 billion credit line as the German steelmaker’s proposed sale of its Steel Americas unit takes longer than it expected.

Ms Nicola Roettger a spokeswoman for the Essen, Germany based company said that the waiver means the company is exempt from an end-September test of its debt to equity ratio. The terms of the loan limited ThyssenKrupp’s leverage ratio to 150% and lenders would have been able to cancel the facility if it failed the test.

Ms Roettger wrote that “For all financial instruments concerned by the gearing covenant, ThyssenKrupp received a waiver. ThyssenKrupp is exempt from the obligation of the gearing covenant on September 30th 2013.”

The German company’s leverage ratio was 186% at the end of June following losses stemming from a decline in the value of its Steel Americas unit. ThyssenKrupp, which has been seeking to sell the division for 16 months, said in last month’s report a sale would help reduce the leverage ratio. The company said it was “confident of finding a solution for Steel Americas” before the end of September, according to an e-mailed statement in February.

Thirty seven banks provided the credit line in 2007 and the syndicate was led by Bayerische Landesbank, BNP Paribas SA, Dresdner Kleinwort and HSBC Holdings Plc, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The debt matures in July and was undrawn at the end of June, according to the company report.

The report said that a EUR 207 million loan from the European Investment Bank and a EUR 630 million facility, denominated in Brazilian reals provided by Brazil’s state development bank BNDES, also included a debt for equity covenant test.

Source - Bloomberg
Imported iron ore stockpiles decline in China

According to Xinhua China iron ore index report, stockpiles of iron ore at 25 major Chinese ports declined last week.

Inventories of imported iron ore stood at 74.32 million tonnes from September 17 to 23 down 990,000 tonnes or 1.33% WoW.

The country celebrated its Mid Autumn Festival last Thursday and Friday and the holiday impacted iron ore prices.

The price index for 62% grade iron ore dropped 3 points from the previous week to 132. The index for 58% grade iron ore shed 4 points to 121.

Source - Global Times

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