pim f schreef op 22 januari 2014 10:16:www.marinelink.com/news/production-fl...
Analyse van de FPSO-markt voor, tijdens en na 2014 - en de plaats van SBM hierin. Niet allemaal even positief, helaas..
Where is Floating Production Headed?
By Jim McCaul, IMA
Monday, January 20, 2014
The number of floating production units grew 5% in 2013. Here we examine the global market and future opportunities.
Currently, there are 319 oil/gas floating production units are now in service, on order or available for reuse on another field.
Redeployment Prospects for Available FPSOs
Eighteen FPSOs have stopped producing and are available for redeployment. The latest to join the inventory of idle FPSOs are Kuito and BrasiI, VLCC-size units owned by SBM. The lease on each concluded at end 2013. They are to be decommissioned.
Some of the 18 available FPSOs are actively for sale. Some are being retained for use on another field controlled by the current owner. All require modification and upgrade to be reused. Depending on the new field, the cost to modify the processing plant, mooring system and refurbish the unit can easily exceed $100 million.
Ten of the available units are single hull, five are double hull and three have double sides or double bottom. Single hull unit are less marketable than double hull units.
Details for available FPSOs can be found at www.imastudies.com.
Many of these available FPSOs (particularly single hull units) will not find another field. This is behind the decision of SBM in December to write down the book value of the FPSO Falcon. Explaining its decision to take a special charge of $55 million on Falcon (marketed since 2009) and Alba (a tanker acquired in 2009 as a conversion hull), SBM said the “estimated recoverable amount under current market conditions is considerably lower than the carrying value.”
To place the issue in perspective, 24 FPSOs have been redeployed over the past ten years – accounting for ~20% of the FPSO contracts during this time period. Assuming this redeployment pace continues, more than 7 years will be needed to clear the inventory of FPSOs now looking for a field contract. And this assumes a project match can be found for all units (which will not happen) and no further units come off field over the next several years (which will happen).
Bottom line is there are far too many available FPSOs for the market to absorb. This situation should cause lenders to look very carefully at residual values in FPSO financings. Anything more than scrap value may be optimistic, even for FPSOs built on new or young hulls.