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Gold War

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B_B
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- A total of 171300 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history.

- Mined gold supply in 2013 was around 2,800 tonnes.


6 countries with largest Gold Reserves in the world:

1) 8134 tonnes (72% of foreign reserves in gold) - United States
2) 3387 tonnes (69% of foreign reserves in gold) - Germany
3) 2452 tonnes (67% of foreign reserves in gold) - Italy
4) 2435 tonnes (66% of foreign reserves in gold) - France
5) 1054 tonnes ( 1% of foreign reserves in gold) - China
6) 1040 tonnes ( 8% of foreign reserves in gold) - Switzerland

www.siliconindia.com/news/business/Gu...
B_B
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5) 1054 tonnes (1% of foreign reserves in gold) - China

Melding uit 2009, waarschijnlijk een nieuwe update in 2014 (5 jaar).
Analisten verwachten minimaal een verdubbeling van de reserves.
B_B
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Are $1400 Gold And $26 Silver About To Be Seen?
Feb. 9, 2014 3:44 AM ET

"So convenient a thing is it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or to make a reason for everything one has a mind to do." Ben Franklin

I have been on vacation for the last few weeks, and, when I came back, I began to peruse the articles on metals on Seeking Alpha. And, after perusing 6 articles, I am sitting here scratching my head, wondering how you readers on Seeking Alpha actually take some of these articles seriously or even make money from them?

First, I see several articles suggesting that the "turmoil" in the emerging market is what has caused and will cause the metals to rally. Well, my question is; does anyone remember what happened during the "turmoil" of 2008? Metals did not fare so well? But, yet, this is just a "reasonable argument" that sounds good, but, ultimately, does not hold water when back-tested.

Next, I see the claim that the shortage of physical gold will cause gold prices to rise. Well, for how many years have we been hearing this argument? And, how much has it helped the price of gold? In fact, despite claims that the physical market is so tight, gold has been dropping for the last several years. And, truthfully, I can buy as much of the physical as I have wanted over the last few years. So, again, another seemingly "reasonable argument" that is completely useless when attempting to trade the metals.

The next "reasonable argument" I see is that the metals will rally due to the rise in volatility within the equity markets. Again, this is the "safe haven" argument I have heard so often. And, of course, it sounds so good, and everyone wants to believe that gold is the "safe haven" asset to which everyone runs when things are falling apart in the equity markets. But, unfortunately, if you actually take the time to review what gold has done during various periods of market volatility, the "safe haven" argument completely falls apart as it has both risen and fallen during periods of market volatility. You may as well go to Vegas with your money if you are "betting" on gold being the "safe haven" purely based upon equity market volatility. And, remember, when margin calls are made, all assets, including gold, are sold to meet margin requirements.

But, who cares about reality, as gold will always be viewed as a "safe haven," and those who buy it based upon that perspective really don't care if they are losing money. They are comfortable in their "feelings" that it will save them from equity market declines, and are simply not burdened by the facts.

And, yes, I can probably go on and on for several more pages. But, I think I have wasted enough of your time. Either you put your blinders on and accept these perspectives as gospel - and continue to gamble your money away, or you look for a better understanding of how the metals move and actually make money in an environment where the "blinders" crowd has lost money.

As many of you know by now, I view sentiment as the true driver of the metals. And, yes, sentiment is patterned and can be tracked to a relatively high degree of probability. While I will never claim to always be correct in my assessment of where the market is and will be going each and every week I have written an article, those that have read me for an extended period of time know that this methodology has correctly identified the movements in the metals much more often than not.

So, while I was on vacation, amazingly, it seems that the metals have done the same. But, I think the metals may be setting up many market participants for disappointment. While I have been pretty open over the last few months to the potential for the metals to provide us a break out and see gold going to the $1400 region and silver to the $26 region, after closely reviewing the silver chart, it has become a greater possibility that we are going down to new lows to create a potential long term bottom in the metals before we see a bigger rally.
.....

seekingalpha.com/article/2006051-are-...


De schrijver van dit artikel vergeet een aantal belangrijke veranderingen/ontwikkelingen:
- Emerging markets is now 40% of the world economy and they are "FED up" with the Dollar/Gold manipulation.
- Zelfs een aantal Europese landen (o.a. Duitsland) hebben ook genoeg van de dollar dominantie. De Euro heeft de Dollar nooit mogen overtreffen als Reserve Currency (dankzij Amerika).
- De traditionele gold lovers uit Azie zijn nu rijk en kopen massaal goud om te BEWAREN.
B_B
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Comex Gold Potential Claims Per Deliverable Ounces Rise to 112 to 1
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2014
Jan 26, 2014 - 05:04 PM GMT
By: Jesse

As you know January is a non-active month for gold on the Comex, but February tends to be quite lively.

Here is the warehouse inventory picture for registered (deliverable) gold ounces. As you can see without exception the levels of bullion ready to be sold is quite low.

As a reminder, that is only one side of the picture. There is an additional category of gold held in these warehouses in 'eligible' bullion form that can be transferred to deliverable with the issuance of some fairly simple paperwork.

So I think that those who talk about a default on the Comex are probably missing the bigger picture. Supply and demand suggests that higher prices might be required to persuade profit maximizing bullion holders to make the switch from storage to sale.

But then again it is not bad to recall that not everyone who is trading bullion is making their profits on the Comex, especially by actual bullion sales. The great bulk of trading traffic is what the FT calls 'pixelated' or paper gold, claims upon rehypothecated claims.

Therefore I have suggested that if there is a break in the gold market, it will not be likely to originate on the Comex, but rather in some physical delivery market in Asia, and even perhaps at the LBMA in London. Any failure at the Comex would most likely be collateral damage to a panic run on bullion, either in a fail to deliver from a bullion bank or exchange, resulting in a massive up limits short squeeze deleveraging.

The current structure of the market looks a bit dodgy. JPM has the clear whip hand on the paper markets. But Asia and the Mideast are dominating the physical delivery markets.
India demand is being throttled by the government sahibs that seem quite eager to accommodate the Anglo-American Banks, which is too bad for their people. I doubt that posture will be sustainable for long.

So let's see what happens. But it looks as though February could be interesting. And if not, then the next active month is not far away.

At the end of the day the market structure must be allowed to reach its clearing prices, and that does not seem to be the current case judging by the relationship of paper to physical.

www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44133.html

Website/link: afbeeldingen van interessante grafieken.
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Gold market could see a default and fail to deliver as early as February
January 19, 2014

On Jan. 18, billionaire metals broker Eric Sprott spoke in an interview with King World News on the new revelations of gold price manipulation, and the groundbreaking discovery that a large financial regulator in Germany has publicly announced there is evidence of central bank coercion in the futures markets.

During his 18 minute interview, Sprott reinforced the fact that commodity markets like the Comex and LBMA were short incredible amounts of physical metal in comparison to the number of paper contracts they have on the books, and that even as early as February, one of more markets in the West could default on their contracts and issue a fail to deliver notice for receipt of physical gold.

Erik King: Are we looking at a possible gold shortage? Because paper claims versus physical gold have skyrocketed to 112 to 1?

Eric Sprott: It's absolutely ridiculous. Dealers have something like 11 tons of gold on the Comex... 11 tons. China imports about 100 tons a month... I mean 11 tons is like nothing. February is a big delivery month. Last year it was 40 tons, and God forbid it's 40 tons this February, and there are alot of contracts still outstanding.

All my work suggests that we are going to see a failure of delivery in some market to some country... something going to give here. - King World News interview, Jan. 18
.....
www.examiner.com/article/gold-market-...
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bennie, op 05 februari 2014 om 10:05 uur
Waarom verlaten de groten der aarde het strijdtoneel?
Wat weten zij wat wij niet weten?

Ben Bernanke (FED)
Mohamed El-Erian (Pimco)
Zhu Changhong (SAFE)

Zhu Changhong ("Invisible Man")had been the chief investment officer for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), the agency that manages China’s $3.8tn mountain of foreign exchange reserves. He left a starring role at Pimco, the world’s largest bond house, to join SAFE in late 2009

www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c4320802-880a...
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The Golden Rule
GOLD AND METALS DESK, SPECIAL GUEST QUARTERS | DAVE KRANZLER | JANUARY 22, 2014 2:12 PM
“He who owns the gold makes the rules”
Please note: the “Golden Rule” refers to actual physical gold in one’s possession and not futures contracts, GLD (NYSEARCA:GLD) shares or even the gold that you have “invested” in via products marketed to wealthy bank clients that claim to have the gold sitting bank vaults (please see this: ABN Amro Halts Gold Delivery and this: Rabobank Halts Gold Delivery).

Based on several inquiries in response to the article I co-authored with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts – LINK – I wanted to clarify a couple points.

It is of critical importance to distinguish between paper gold and physical gold. The majority of gold commentary generically references the trading of gold, without differentiating between “paper gold” – Comex gold futures and other paper-derived products like GLD or bank investment accounts marketed to wealthy clients – and actual physical bars. The difference is crucial because paper gold contracts can be printed in unlimited quantities and dumped on the market. But the seller of real gold takes the risk that his buyer on the other side might demand delivery of the physical gold. If the seller of a futures contract or a bank investment product like the ones marketed by JP Morgan et al is selling security interest in gold that is not really in the vault, the buyer of that product does not own gold. He does not get to make any rules.

The issue is that historically big buyers of physical gold would leave their gold in bank and Central Bank vaults rather than paying the cost of taking delivery in their own possession for safekeeping (cost of transporation + insurance). But China as well as other big buyers now require all purchases to be delivered to their own safekeeping because they no longer trust the western banks and Central Banks. The Fed and its banks have been leasing and borrowing gold from all the vaults in the west in order to have enough gold to deliver to the Asian/Indian buyers. This has kept the price down in order to support the U.S dollar and the euro. The ratio of paper gold products to actual physical gold is at least 90-100:1. At least.

But this gold Ponzi scheme is coming to an end and all signs indicate that the Fed, BOE and ECB are out of physical gold other than some gold in the GLD Trust and scrap remnants sitting at the back of bank vaults that has to be melted and recast in order to deliver to Asia. We know for a fact that the scant 5 tonnes of gold shipped from the NY Fed vault to the German Bundesbank had to melted and recast. And now Germany is left holding 5 tonnes of the 1500 tonnes it gave to the U.S. after WWII for safekeeping.

The bottom line is that the Fed does not have Germany’s gold and there will eventually be consequences. This is how sacred the German public considers gold: Imagine that Germany came to this country, took over all the Starbucks, shopping malls and reality tv production studios. Next imagine that they shut them all down and forbid any access to them at all. None. Imagine the response of the U.S. public. That is what is starting to foment in Germany over the missing gold issue.

As I mentioned in the article linked above, Venezuela was able repatriate 160 tonnes of gold in four months. Why is it going to take the U.S. 7 years to ship back 300 tonnes to Germany when it would require just two trans-Atlantic cargo shipments via air? The cost of shipping and insurance is miniscule compared to the value of 300 tonnes. It’s because the gold is not there. It’s gone. No public official is willing to state the obvious and mostly oblivious Americans have no clue it’s even an issue.

But it is an issue and the severity of that issue will grow with time. Already German politicians are preparing legislation that will demand the repatriation of ALL of Germany’s gold from the U.S. and France. That will be fun to watch our Government if the legislation passes.

www.wallstreetsectorselector.com/2014...
B_B
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Verzoek om de repatriatie van goud op 17 augustus 2011 (Venezuela) en op 4 januari 2013 (Duitsland) en de daling van de goudprijs.
Bijlage:
B_B
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Friday, February 14, 2014, 07.37 AM
CGSE eyes China gold warehouse

SINGAPORE: The Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (CGSE), based in Hong Kong, aims to launch a physical bullion trading exchange and a 1,500-tonne depository in mainland China within the next year, its president said yesterday.

The century-old firm, which runs Hong Kong’s only physical bullion trading exchange, has been in talks to open a warehouse in China’s free trade zone in the Qianhai district of Shenzhen.

The warehouse will primarily serve jewellery makers, some of whom are already trading members of CGSE in Hong Kong. Reuters

www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES...

Bewaren en beleggen in goud wordt steeds meer en makkelijker in Azie.
Ook de overheden helpen een handje mee, ze promoten zelfs het kopen van goud.
B_B
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Feb 14, 2014 10:29 AM
.....
Indonesia’s shrinking current-account deficit has turned the rupiah into the world’s best-performing emerging-market currency this year, after it weakened in 2013 by more than any other peer apart from Argentina’s peso.
.....
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-14/rup...


- Het herstel van de Emerging Markets Currencies is negatief voor de dollar.
(only the Russian Ruble is still in trouble)

- Door buitenlandse investeerders aan te trekken voor de alsmaar stijgende Amerikaanse beurzen , kunnen ze de Dollar een beetje steunen.
(het volume bij de rally van de afgelopen dagen was laag, waarschijnlijk manipulatie)
B_B
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quote:

B_B schreef op 11 feb 2014 om 19:55:


- De traditionele gold lovers uit Azie zijn nu rijk en kopen massaal goud om te BEWAREN.



Ze zijn bang om de boot te missen.
Elke dip is een mooi instapmoment.
B_B
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Deze traditionele gold lovers hebben oogkleppen op als ze goud kopen.
Ze zien alleen de goudprijs. Ze kijken niet naar de koers van de dollar etc.
Binnenkort kunnen de profs niet meer verklaren waarom goud zo snel stijgt.
bodemvisser50
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Alle shorters zijn ook met hun staart tussen de benen moeten vertrekken.
Up naar de 1400 en dat zal niet lang duren.
B_B
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Sina Financial News June 28, 2013 – At the Lujiazui Forum River Nocturne sub-forum held today, China National Gold Group Corporation General Manager Zhaoxue said the United States intends to suppress gold to ensure the Dollar’s dominance, that the fall in the price of gold was premeditated, and a part of the currency war.

“The hottest topic at the moment is oil and gold. The ground war we are seeing around the world is I think war for oil whereas gold is the currency war. Why? We observe that the integrity was the driver for US Dollar to become world reserve currency. The US Dollar and gold decoupling from 1971 caused the US Dollar to depreciate massively. From 1990 onwards, the Eurozone was in consultation to form a strong Euro to counter the US Dollar, in order to prevent the latter from stripping Europe of its wealth. The Euro was born in 1999, supported by its strong economy and 11,000 tons of gold.

With the birth of the Euro a competitor to the US Dollar was created, and so the US decided to lay a trap for the Eurozone as part of the currency war. Some countries in the Eurozone violated the Eurozone’s norms by issuing bonds. Which entities participated in the issuance? US investment banks. After the debt was issued, it was US ratings agencies that struck a blow to the Eurozone by saying that its economies had problems.

Only gold remains on par with the US Dollar to benefit from the Eurozone and Euros collapse. This is why the US began to suppress gold by issuing a statement two months ago that the Eurozone will sell its gold when it is unable to service its debt, then stating three days later that the news was false. Furthermore Goldman Sachs made a forecast for the gold price at the beginning of the year but suddenly changed its course saying the gold price will fall to $1300. Buffet said that he would not buy gold even if its price fell to 800USD. Our research indicates that Buffet made a lot of money from four gold companies. So his statement is inconsistent with his personal action.

Bernanke’s speech followed, saying that monetary easing will end, that the US economy is improving. This series of examples shows that the fall of the gold price is premeditated. So I say that this process is a genuine currency war.

www.ingoldwetrust.ch/sun-zhaoxue-us-i...
B_B
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15 de febrero de 2014
.....
Banco de México (Bank of Mexico or Banxico) claims to have 120 tons of gold stored at the Bank of England (BoE). Nevertheless, on December last year Banxico told me that the BIS said a physical inspection of its gold at the BoE was “not possible”. Should this be seen as an alert sign for investors and other central banks?
.....
inteligenciafinancieraglobal.blogspot...
B_B
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quote:

B_B schreef op 11 feb 2014 om 19:55:


- Zelfs een aantal Europese landen (o.a. Duitsland) hebben ook genoeg van de dollar dominantie. De Euro heeft de Dollar nooit mogen overtreffen als Reserve Currency (dankzij Amerika).




Deutsche quits gold price-setting as regulators investigate fix
Jan 20, 2014 02:16 GMT
.....
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank will withdraw from gold and silver benchmark price setting, it said on Friday, as European regulators investigate suspected manipulation of precious metals prices by banks.
Germany's largest bank and some of its rivals are taking a battering over a series of other scandals and inquiries regarding manipulation of interest rates and foreign exchange.
.....
In mid-December, German banking regulator Bafin demanded documents from Deutsche Bank under an inquiry into suspected manipulation of benchmark gold and silver prices by banks, the Financial Times reported, citing sources.
.....
www.metal.com/newscontent/56812_deuts...



Germany and France plan secure new data network
Erik Kirschbaum BERLIN
Monday 17 February 2014
GERMANY and France are ­discussing plans to build a European communications network to improve data protection and avoid emails and other information passing through the United States.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is to open talks with French President Francois Hollande this week following revelations of mass surveillance by the US National Security Agency (NSA) that have prompted huge concern in Europe.
.....
www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-new...



No guarantee for Chinese Dama's gold dream to shine
2014-02-17
.....
There are different voices about gold prices trend in 2014. Goldman Sachs believes gold will still stay in a significant downward trend, at least 15 percent while European banks, represented by Deutsche Bank, believe it is to emerge, at least to 1,400 dollars per ounce.
.....
www.ecns.cn/business/2014/02-17/10112...



Duitsland en de Deutsche Bank staan niet meer aan de kant van de Dollar.
[verwijderd]
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Zie het duitse goud dat in de VS zou moeten liggen als een betaling van Duitsland aan de VS als vergoeding voor WOII
B_B
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JANUARY 13, 2014
DUTCH CENTRAL BANK TIGHT-LIPPED ABOUT GOLD POLICY

Only 11 % of Dutch official gold reserves, which is 613 tons in total, is stored in Amsterdam. The rest is held abroad; 20 % in Ottawa, 20 % in London and 49 % in New York. Because of my belief that gold will re-enter the monetary system within a few years I’m most concerned about the safety of the official gold reserves of the Netherlands held abroad, just like the Germans are, expressed by the repatriation of their gold reserves.
.....
I have heard second hand information that the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) and the Federal reserve (the custodian of the Dutch gold in New York) had some correspondence in recent years about monetary gold, but the Dutch did not decide to repatriate any gold because the subject was rather sensitive, according to my source. Through which we can conclude it’s very likely the FED doesn’t hold all the foreign gold they claim, how else can this subject be sensitive? If a friend would store a book in my home for 30 years but would like to have it back at a certain moment I would be happy to return it. Only if I would have lost or sold the book his request would be rather sensitive.
In The Netherlands we have a law called WOB (Wet Openbaarheid van Bestuur). It means the law for openness of governess, this is the Dutch version of FOIA.

On December 12, 2013 I sent the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) a WOB request to inspect all correspondence, from the past 45 years, regarding monetary gold between DNB and all other central banks, mainly the Federal Reserve.

The next day I got a call from DNB in which they told me they received the request and it would be processed, confirmed by a letter four days later.

Wow, great service I thought. I was looking forward to reading the correspondence.

But then on December 20, 2013, I got another letter from DNB.

Translated in short: the WOB act applies for just about everything the government does, except its gold dealings. What a surprise..
.....
www.silverdoctors.com/dutch-central-b...
Bijlage:
B_B
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Gold moving into balance, perhaps even deficit – World Gold Council
By: Martin Creamer
18th February 2014

JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – The gold market appeared to be moving back towards a balance and even a deficit quite quickly, World Gold Council (WGC) MD investment strategy Marcus Grubb said on Tuesday.

Gold hit a three-and-a-half-month peak on Monday as fear over US economic growth and a weaker dollar added to the metals’ safe-haven appeal, extending its gains after rising the most in six months last week.

Grubb told Mining Weekly Online that he expected to see a much better year for gold this year than in 2013, when demand got the precious metal totalled 3 756.1 t, worth $170-billion, down 15% on 2012.

“The gold market is bottoming out here,” he said, adding that the move of gold from the West to East had happened with the big move of exchange-traded fund (ETF) tonnage to satisfy mainly Asian consumer demand.

Some 880 t of gold – or 28-million ounces on top of recycling and mine production – flowed out of ETFs into the market in 2013, which was probably four to five times the yearly output of the largest gold miner.

With ETFs already turning positive, that was unlikely to be repeated.

“We think this market is moving back towards a balance and even a deficit quite quickly,” Grubb added to Mining Weekly Online.

Investors who had reduced their gold in the first six weeks of this year on the basis of a lack of perceived risk had already been put on the spot.

On the demand side, both investment and consumer demand were expected to remain at 2013 levels, while on the supply side, little change was expected.

Recycling, which dropped 14% last year, might even drop again in 2014, and mine production was unlikely to rise.

Emerging-market central banks were indicating that they wanted to buy more gold and were on the bid in the current market.

Overall, the WGC expected central banks and especially the emerging-market banks, to continue to be buyers of probably similar amounts in 2014 as in 2013, although no formal targets had been set yet.

The council expected the buying trend of the central banks to remain intact, albeit at a more moderate pace.

The 368.6 t bought in 2013 represented the four consecutive year of central bank buying and a fifth buying year was expected.

An eye would, however, be kept on the central bank gold agreement, which was up for renewal when it ended in September.

Gold demand remained strong in China, exemplified by an unexpected 29 t delivery in one day on the Shanghai Gold Exchange last week, well after the end of the New Year celebration.
.....
www.miningweekly.com/article/gold-mov...
B_B
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Op 03-02-'14 om 17:05 uur schreef bennie:
FED zal dit jaar alleen praten over tapering, maar heimelijk doorgaan met QE.
Externe tapering wordt steeds groter (Emerging Markets verkopen massaal U.S. treasuries).
Iemand moet blijven kopen.
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