SNSN schreef op 23 oktober 2014 11:24:
As a matter of fact, Imtech got “scenario 3” (see last week post). But anyway, it does NOT matter for Imtech financials, although essentially decreases its default risk.
Indeed, if banks would become main shareholders (even for < 30%), this would mean that:
1. A large part of former debts became “convertible”, i.e. would be converted into the shares owned by former debts-holders. It’s actually a good (well known) alternative to “rights issue”, and a good option for Imtech strongly reducing its debts anyway.
2. Default probability would be strongly reduced, as main shareholders - big banks - having much high credit rating (~AA) would "guaranty" almost “zero credit-default-risk” for Imtech (in structural credit risk models it's reflected by the change (reduction) of debts & structure).
3. Potentials for stock to rise, as i) in normal circumstances banks would not like to make losses selling at/under 0.01 (conditional on rational behavior, and a good ax-ante risk management), and ii) reduced debts would allow Imtech to make a reasonable profit (theoretically even at slightly decreasing revenue)
So, it’s good for Imtech anyway....