Goede samenvatting , geeft duidelijkheid...
From LSE, posted last week
"Produced this for a pal. May as well share here. PS do your own due diligence.
Here's my overview of the testing company Novacyt/Primerdesign which is a French/English listed on both stock exchanges.
They were founded in 2006 and make diagnostic testing kits.
Novacyt supply to 80 countries. Product has been approved by EU, US, UK and this evening The World Health Organisation (WHO).
Novacyt and Roche are only two companies in world approved by WHO.
They have previously made kits for SARS-1, Ebola and MERS.
There are two types of tests:
Antigen - checks if you HAVE COVID
Antibody - checks if you HAD COVID
Novacyt were quickly able to adapt their SARS-1 test to test for COVID-19 (also known as SARS-2).
Novacyt's Antigen test is 100% accurate (will attach reports)
Is quickest Antigen test at 60>90 mins
And apparently the Gold Standard.
The Antibody tests are about 50% accurate and therefore can not be used. I read they are about 3 months away.
UK has looked at 150 Antibody tests and tested 9 which failed.
Antibody tests can take up to 28 days after infection for test to work.
Antigen tests will work around a day after infection.
Both tests are needed. Antigen to immediately diagnose, trace case contacts and regularly test key workers. Plus when enough supply is available test in the community.
Working Antibody test may be available in 3 months and would be used to check if we have immunity (if science shows we can build immunity) .
Billions of tests are needed world wide. The UK could easily use 30m Antigen tests.
Novacyt test is run on PCR testing equipment that is common throughout labs world wide.
Novacyt are currently valued at £146m. Start of Jan they were valued £9.7m.
Novacyt is one of three companies supplying UK, Roche ($275b) and likely Thermo Fisher ($120b).
Not that a comparison should be made against their businesses or valuations. Just highlights what a mino they are and how well they are doing.
Last year sales were of £14.5m.
This year have sold £18.7m COVID tests and currently have capacity to sell approx £40m a month.
Hold enough materials to sell approx £180m of tests.
Could easily have sales of £300m (approx £220 booked) which would equate to around £1.5b value.
If they can double capacity (up by x20 since Feb) they could be valued at £3b.
A x5 to x20 return on investment is possible within 3>9 months.
They will likely announce they have secured more stock in next company announcement.
They have increased company capacity from 200,000 tests a month to 4m.
They have signed manufacturing agreements in America and UK. It is anticipated they will sign a further UK agreements with Glaxo Smith Kline and AstraZeneca (as mentioned by Mat Han**** hinted).
Novacyt - Southampton
Yourgene - UK Manchester (in production)
Second UK manufacturer - Discussions
Unknown US - production?"
From LSE, Part 2
If COVID is resolved quicker than forecast (12>18m) this would reduce Novacyts value.
This seems unlikely with second waves of cases in China and Korea. Governments are going to want to test key workers and travelers for a while and will want access to supplies should it occur.
Novacyt also has some lasting value outside of COVID as its demonstrated ability to produce high quality corona virus test kit quickly.
We are forecast to suffer from Conora virus's at a higher rate in future!! This being the 7th (china / world needs to sort out animal welfare). Novacyt will be well positioned to react to future viruses. Though their value you quickly drop a period prior to virus being defeated. When is the key question lol
It earns £13m from its other business and lost £4.7m in 2019. Company has debts of around £6m. This will be cleared very soon with their incoming profits. They have a gross margin of 85%.
Risk 1: Not able to procure enough materials
Acton: Global suppliers are ramping up production. Have enough to make £180m worth of kits. Signing up with larger partners may help their buying power.
Risk 2: Not able to ramp up manufacturing sufficiently
Acton: Have signed up 2 manufacturers plus look to add 3rd. Own site is running at 100%.
Should add more sites and maybe licence out tech.
Risk 3: Faster or cheaper test released
Acton: Basingstoke hospital in partnership with Optigene and Novacyt released a 5>20 min test. Novacyts current test takes 60>90 mins. This new method uses Novacyts test but on equipment usually used in veterinary. This equipment is faster than most units used for humans!!
The 5>20 min test could cement Novacyts place as number one supplier in the world.
. They will sell as many products as they can make
. They are adapting an Antibody norovirus for COVID. If successful they would be servicing both parts of the pie.
Although the share price has risen by 25 times since Jan it still has scope to rise in multiples. The share price will react to the ability of company to increase capacity, supplies and in line with global testing strategies. The share price does swing violently up and down, don't worry about that, pay attention to the RNS statements (Share holder updates). As long as these contain good news and sales increase the share price will take care of itself. Company usually provides updates every 10 days at 7:00am on a Monday or Friday. These updated will become less frequent as news cycle slows and confidence in company continues to increase.
My investment plan is to hold all my shared until May/June and sell my original investment (assuming more than a doubling) and hold the remainder for approx 8 months. This strategy can change rapidly due to dynamic nature of situation.
While no investment is safe, there are not many better places to invest money right now.
I'll share with you my stock market recovery picks"