SNSN schreef op 8 november 2017 18:57:
For the last months the stock has formed (bearish) 'rising wedge' pattern with the target price ~160 Eur for Nov 8.
The lower edge of that 'rising wedge' pattern was broken down yesterday at ~159.
After the lower pattern edge was broken (see above), the actual 'pattern target' should be ~142. However, the 'first target' is just around ~152 - strong resistance at the lower edge of rising (trading) channel formed since Aug 29.
In general, at current P/E = ~35 (price/earning ratio) the stock is highly overpriced. Actually above ~120 it's not an 'investment stock' any more, but just a 'trading stock' for the active 'mid-size speculators' - day-traders (using basic 'trading strategies' with usd & eur 'hedging accounts', given well expected declining for Eur/Usd-rates since Aug 29 - compare with the stock 'rising channel' above).
Indeed, 'investment stocks' usually have P/E ratios in the range 15 - 26. Compare with the P/E ratios for diff indices: P/E (S&P) = ~25; P/E (Nasdaq 100) = ~26; P/E (Dow Ind) = 21. For instance, for EPS = 9.2 Usd for 'Apple' (AAPL), the E/P ratio is just around ~19.
So, given stock's current annual earnings ~4.66 (1.23 + 1.05 + 1.08 +1.3) the stock's fair value is in the range ~ 70-121 (assuming the stock is an 'investment' one).
Again, given the Q3-report (take a look at the 'net booking') the 'net sales' in the next quarter Q4-2017 will be much lower, i.e. around ~2.28, than in the Q3-2017 (read old posts for details). As for the EPS for Q4-2017, it will be also well below the EPS from Q3-2017, to be precise - just around ~1.26, i.e. very close to the EPS = 1.23 for Q4-2016.
So, take care. Good luck.