maliqun61 schreef op 7 oktober 2018 11:25:
Voor die enkelingen die mijn posts elders nog niet gelezen hebben:
Koersdoelverlaging Roth Capital dd 26 september 2018: van € 2,50 naar € 2,25.
MORNING & MID-DAY SUMMARY | EQUITY RESEARCH | September 26, 2018
Pharming Group NV (OTC: PHGUF), Buy, €2.25 PT, Estimate Change, €632.1 Mkt. Cap.(mil)
Last week, Pharming announced a regulatory setback for the expanded Ruconest indication with regards to prophylaxis treatment. We update our model to reflect that event.
Key takeaways, in our opinion, include
1) we delayed expected "on-label" revenue contribution for a prophylaxis indication by ~2 years until 2021,
2) this reduced 2019-22 revenues by €3M, €13M, €18M, and €16M, and
3) this resulted in modest downward EPS forecast revisions.
Maintain Buy rating with price target reduced to €2.25 from €2.50
Nadere toelichting op 1), 2) en 3):
Takeaway #1 - Our expectations for a future prophylaxis indication. Although significant usage of Ruconest likely already occurs as an off-label prophylaxis treatment, we expect that the company will conduct additional clinical trial work to seek a "prophylaxis" label. We target an additional ~2 year delay for approval of the prophylaxis indication.
¦ Takeaway #2 - Revenue impact. We postponed "prophylaxis" revenues from 1Q19 to 1Q21 as a result of the FDA setback. As a result of this delay, we reduced 2019-22 total revenue forecasts to €176M, €228M, €295M, and €383M (from €179M, €241M, €313M, and €399M). Our incremental expectations for the prophylaxis label were already modest given expected off-label usage. We expect off-label usage to continue, but this is a risk.
¦ Takeaway #3 - EPS impact. As a result of lower revenues, we adjusted our 2019-22 EPS targets to €0.085, €0.125, €0.190, and €0.270 (from €0.090, €0.140, €0.210, and €0.290)