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OCI - 2020

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BultiesBrothers
0
@jessebrown, is al het nieuws van Argus gratis en openbaar? Ik kan hun nieuws niet altijd goed vinden op de site. Bij ICIS kon je tot voorkort nog koppen lezen en nieuwsberichten aan elkaar sleutelen, maar alles is achter een betaal muur gekomen helaas...
BultiesBrothers
0
www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2...

In het kort. Vanwege winter in China, te weinig gasvoorraden die gebruikt kunnen worden om methanol te produceren. Ook Iran kampt met hetzelfde probleem. Meer gas is nodig voor huishoudelijk gebruik (verwarming). Daarbovenop komt is er weinig aanvoer naar China omdat ze er de laagste methanol prijzen hebben, dus alles gaat naar andere markten waar hogere prijzen zijn.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Watch industry analyst Sam Liang discuss the uptrend in China's methanol market amid tight supply conditions.

Domestic methanol prices hit highest level since April 2019
Domestic supply tightens on continuous shutdown of gas-based units
Price gap between China and overseas markets continues to widen
Ruval
0
quote:

jessebrown schreef op 23 december 2020 20:34:

Ik vraag mij eigenlijk af voor wie ik al die mooie artikelen plaats,er is geen enkele belangstelling hier op het forum,geen enkele positieve reactie ,dit is dan ook het laatste wat ik hier plaats,zoek het zelf maar uit.
Jesse, zeker wel ik lees ze altijd met belangstelling dus vooral doorgaan hoor!
eduardo3105
0
quote:

Ruval schreef op 23 december 2020 21:29:

[...]
Jesse, zeker wel ik lees ze altijd met belangstelling dus vooral doorgaan hoor!
sluit mij daarbij aan
RJ 80
0
Dito van mijn kant Jesse. Ik lees ze ook altijd, ben meer een lezer op dit forum, omdat ik wel aandeelhouder ben, maar minder van de stof weet dan o.a. jij. ABtje van mij.
Snovkov
0
@Jesse ik lees ook mee. Thanks!
Weet iemand trouwens hoeveel % van de omzet van OCI uit Methanol komt?
Krentenmenten
0
quote:

Snovkov schreef op 24 december 2020 08:14:

@Jesse ik lees ook mee. Thanks!
Weet iemand trouwens hoeveel % van de omzet van OCI uit Methanol komt?
niet veel, dacht ik
Appel72
0
quote:

Snovkov schreef op 24 december 2020 08:14:

@Jesse ik lees ook mee. Thanks!
Weet iemand trouwens hoeveel % van de omzet van OCI uit Methanol komt?
Dit is 24%(Q3 2020) zal nu wel iets meer zijn gezien de gestegen MeOH prijzen.
BuitengewoonBinnen
0
Jesse sorry ik ben een passief forum lid maar ik waardeer zeer wat je er op zet !
Snovkov
0
Ik ben even uitgestapt. De methamol prijzen zullen stijgen (25% vd omzet) maar de fertilizer marges niet (75% van de omzet). Gas wordt duurder en verkoopprijzen stijgen niet navenant mee. Dus geen significante schuldenafbouw. Ik pik ze later weer op tussen de 11 en 12 want ik denk dat 2022 wel interessant gaat worden. Enige risico is een eventuele verkoop van activiteiten van de methanol maar wat blijft er daarna over?
de schaatser
0
quote:

Snovkov schreef op 24 december 2020 09:10:

Ik ben even uitgestapt. De methamol prijzen zullen stijgen (25% vd omzet) maar de fertilizer marges niet (75% van de omzet). Gas wordt duurder en verkoopprijzen stijgen niet navenant mee. Dus geen significante schuldenafbouw. Ik pik ze later weer op tussen de 11 en 12 want ik denk dat 2022 wel interessant gaat worden. Enige risico is een eventuele verkoop van activiteiten van de methanol maar wat blijft er daarna over?
Die 11 en 12 ga jij bij Oci niet meer zien.
De kans dat het 21 en 22 ligt 90 % hoger dan de 11 en 12.
jessebrown
0
Dank voor de bemoedigende reactie,s ik zal proberen om nieuws uit de sector te blijven plaatsen,ook al weet
ik dat het plaatsen van nieuws de koers niet zal helpen,deze vaart zijn eigen weg,het blijft een aandeel wat veel heftiger reageert op minder goed nieuws,maar de potentie is er om hoger te gaan.
Daarom
0
de schaatser
0
Jessebrown,

bedankt dat je, je kennis met ons deelt.
Echt een wezenlijke bijdrage.
Allemaal een gezond en gelukkige Kerst toegewenst.
jessebrown
1
Nog 1 dan voor het Kerstweekend en allen fijne feestdagen en gezond nieuwjaar !
Deze info resulteert in een mixbag voor prijsontwikkeling (minder export China positief minder vraag
India niet gunstig en steeds maar weer capiciteit uitbreiding en dat is de molensteen waar de sector
al decenia mee kampt en blijft frustreren voor hogere afzetprijzen.
Viewpoint: Will India dominate urea again in 2021?
Published date: 24 December 2020

Share:
The global urea market has marched to India's beat throughout the second half of 2020, with prices driven by its purchasing rounds.

India, the world's largest urea importer, is in the midst of a record demand year, only increasing its significance for global trade.

Indian urea imports totalled 9.1mn t in the last fiscal year running April 2019-March 2020, according to government data. This year it has purchased over 9mn t of urea already to date.

The total global traded urea market is around 50mn t, putting India's substantial buying into context.

Indian state buyer RCF purchased a record 2.18mn t in a single tender during October, which illustrated the hot run of buying that has taken place.

Indian sales in recent tenders have represented the best netback prices for global suppliers. India has swept up spot cargoes by purchasing vast quantities and permitted higher prices to be achieved east and west of Suez by drawing in supplies from multiple regions, including many non-traditional suppliers to Asia-Pacific.

But the periods in between Indian tenders have seen prices stagnate and fall, highlighting the inadequacy of price support from other markets.

Indian urea imports are forecast at a record 11mn t and consumption is expected to total around 36.2mn t for calendar 2020, according to Argus Analytics, driven by increased crop plantings and healthy monsoon rainfall. But with new capacity coming on stream and a slight slowdown in agricultural demand expected, 2021 imports are forecast to decline nearer to 9mn t and consumption to 35.4mn t.

While still a substantial quantity, this could mean fewer import tenders are required next calendar year. On the evidence of this year, it is unclear which major markets will be able to support prices if India buys less.

Brazil will see record imports this year, likely to approach 6.5mn t, but it has offered little in the way of price support in recent months. The US market can be a driver heading into, and during, the northern hemisphere spring, but has less of an influence on global pricing through the year than India. Moreover, US imports are forecast to largely stagnate next year, at below 5mn t.

China is the world's largest urea producer and an important exporter. Reduced exports from the country next year because of increased domestic demand — both agricultural and industrial — could see exports shrink nearer to 4mn t from around the 5.3mn t forecast for this year, according to Argus Analytics. Less export supply from China could partly offset lower Indian buying.

But large-scale capacity additions are also expected to come on stream next year globally, which will ensure overall supply remains ample.

India has orchestrated the market during much of 2020. It is unclear who will take the lead if India has a quieter 2021.
Ruval
0
quote:

jessebrown schreef op 24 december 2020 17:44:

Nog 1 dan voor het Kerstweekend en allen fijne feestdagen en gezond nieuwjaar !
Deze info resulteert in een mixbag voor prijsontwikkeling (minder export China positief minder vraag
India niet gunstig en steeds maar weer capiciteit uitbreiding en dat is de molensteen waar de sector
al decenia mee kampt en blijft frustreren voor hogere afzetprijzen.
Viewpoint: Will India dominate urea again in 2021?
Published date: 24 December 2020

Share:
The global urea market has marched to India's beat throughout the second half of 2020, with prices driven by its purchasing rounds.

India, the world's largest urea importer, is in the midst of a record demand year, only increasing its significance for global trade.

Indian urea imports totalled 9.1mn t in the last fiscal year running April 2019-March 2020, according to government data. This year it has purchased over 9mn t of urea already to date.

The total global traded urea market is around 50mn t, putting India's substantial buying into context.

Indian state buyer RCF purchased a record 2.18mn t in a single tender during October, which illustrated the hot run of buying that has taken place.

Indian sales in recent tenders have represented the best netback prices for global suppliers. India has swept up spot cargoes by purchasing vast quantities and permitted higher prices to be achieved east and west of Suez by drawing in supplies from multiple regions, including many non-traditional suppliers to Asia-Pacific.

But the periods in between Indian tenders have seen prices stagnate and fall, highlighting the inadequacy of price support from other markets.

Indian urea imports are forecast at a record 11mn t and consumption is expected to total around 36.2mn t for calendar 2020, according to Argus Analytics, driven by increased crop plantings and healthy monsoon rainfall. But with new capacity coming on stream and a slight slowdown in agricultural demand expected, 2021 imports are forecast to decline nearer to 9mn t and consumption to 35.4mn t.

While still a substantial quantity, this could mean fewer import tenders are required next calendar year. On the evidence of this year, it is unclear which major markets will be able to support prices if India buys less.

Brazil will see record imports this year, likely to approach 6.5mn t, but it has offered little in the way of price support in recent months. The US market can be a driver heading into, and during, the northern hemisphere spring, but has less of an influence on global pricing through the year than India. Moreover, US imports are forecast to largely stagnate next year, at below 5mn t.

China is the world's largest urea producer and an important exporter. Reduced exports from the country next year because of increased domestic demand — both agricultural and industrial — could see exports shrink nearer to 4mn t from around the 5.3mn t forecast for this year, according to Argus Analytics. Less export supply from China could partly offset lower Indian buying.

But large-scale capacity additions are also expected to come on stream next year globally, which will ensure overall supply remains ample.

India has orchestrated the market during much of 2020. It is unclear who will take the lead if India has a quieter 2021.
Dank Jesse!
BultiesBrothers
0
According to Rabobank, prices across the global fertilizer complex have climbed off ten-year lows during the second half of 2020, primarily supported by improved demand in several major geographies. This has played out most significantly in Brazil and India, two of the top-three biggest importers in the globe for the last five years.

In Brazil, improved commodity prices continue to fuel the run of strong farmer margins. “This year, we expect fertilizer demand in Brazil to increase for the fifth straight year. Year-to-date imports have risen 8% y/y, a 23% increase on 2015”, said Matheus Almeida, Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs at Rabobank.

In India, a strong kharif season and local government reforms contributed to a surge in local sales – the local government reported a 15% y/y increase in fertilizer sales for the first half of the year.

Demand has picked up in other regions too. In Australia, Rabobank expects winter crop production to increase 63% y/y, which has already translated to a 26% y/y increase in nitrogen sales in 1H20.

Heavy supplies and growing production capacity will continue to weigh on prices across the nutrient complex. “In the immediate term, we expect urea and phosphate prices to continue to be supported by demand until the start of 2Q21. Once seasonal demand from the northern hemisphere subsides, markets will again be exposed to heavy supplies,” says Almeida. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) expects another 9 million t of urea production capacity – a 4.5% increase and well above their forecast demand growth of 1%. Almost half of that new capacity is likely to appear in India, reducing its activity in global markets.

“On an encouraging note for fertilizer suppliers, we see a more positive time ahead for potash markets. We expect that importers in China and India will continue to cover inventories, and sustained demand in the US and Brazil will ensure demand remains,” concludes Almeida. On the supply side, current low prices may limit production in high-cost plants and delay new projects coming online. As a result, potash prices are expected to increase at a constant rate over 1H21.

Als ze nou bekend maken dat ze de toko in q1 2021 gaan verkopen dan ben ik er wel gerust op dat de koers flink kan herstellen....;)
Daarom
0
'OCI zou daarom zomaar eens de verrassing van 2021 kunnen worden'... bron IEX premium
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Vertraagd 11 aug 2022 17:35
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