AMG - februari 2020

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Zo te zien toch flink rode opening van een min 3 a 4%. Wordt wat mij betreft dan een mooi instappunt.

bezinteergebelegt schreef op 27 februari 2020 08:56:

Zo te zien toch flink rode opening van een min 3 a 4%. Wordt wat mij betreft dan een mooi instappunt.

Ik zou nog even wachten, de shorters moeten nog wakker worden.
Allen. Ik moet nog een plukje van 10 minuten. Doe ik vanavond.
Maar werk roept. Ik heb ook wat dingen die al in de geschreven statement staat uit het "transcript" gelaten.


Operation headwinds

Price declines recessionary price levels. below 2008 crisis levels.
Further risk reduction. German plant: 20000t annum battery grade lithium by end 2022
Sees more opportunities for growth through industry consolidation and through the nurturing of technology startups

To this end we appointed ABN AMRO and CITI as joint global coordinators to establish of an Amsterdam IPO.
Presently it is priority to establish AMG tech ipo readiness. including corp structures audits and then market conditions.
Truly stand-alone with majority independent board.

Higher levels of vanadium and chrome metal. Increasing volumes in 5 of 7 of units.

Q4 2018 / Q04 2019 comparison: mainly due to 7.5 million exceptional customer payment.
Technolgies Q4 1.2 book to bill ratio: Due to large orders of remelting/turbine blade coating and induction furnaces
This strong order intake continued in January due a strong turbine blade coating furnace orders resulting in a 10 year high order backlog as the end of the month.

Important to point out that Zanesville vanadium project is separately funded via municipal bond. As such we carry restricted cash on our balance sheet which is earmarked to fund this project and we don't need any corporate cash or cash flow to pay for it.
The net debt excluding municipal bond line in our liquidity disclosure represents our corporate debt e.g. our non-project debt.
Which is net of our 226 million of corporate cash which we hold on our balance sheet.

Eric Jackson:
- All prices weak. Nothing illustrates this more clearly than the fact thjat FeV index prices were $52,64 in Q4 2018 and $11,50 in Q42019 (78% decline).
- Q1 2020 recovery. FeV increased more than 30% QTD as high cost producers exit or reduce production and demand continues to be strong. Silicon metal prices have increased similarly
- Focus is to better manage price risks, improve operational efficiencies and be the low cost producer
- Despite prices all of our units are EBITDA positive and deliver strong operational cash flow. This compares very favorably when we look at publicly information on our competitors and pierce.
- Our largest price in liquidity exposure historically is being FeV. Glencore delivers much more consistent results.
- Ohio is proceeding as planned.
- Weak tantalum and spodumene prices negatively impacted results. Responded by reducing overhead costs and renegotiating number of service agreements
- Given weakness in lithium market were reduced production and granted short term relief to our major spodumene customer. We will return to full capacity by the end of the first quarter.
- We have also sold 100% of our tantalum production capacity for 2020
- 250 million in new engineering orders through the year
- comment on corona virus: we implemented a divers global supply chain that is not overly reliant on anyone country as a critical supplier
We therefor do not presently anticipate major disruption in the supply chains of our core operation. Major strength of AMG businesses. in many cases we offer a secure alternative to Chinese origin products.

- Advancements of cornerstones for long term value creation: circular economy in OHIO
- AMG Critical Materials have appeared to reach a bottom as 2020 market pricing is showing signs of improvement

Henk: Working capital reversal in Q4. Bit higher than expected. Clarify?
Partial reversal in Q1?
- Part seasonal, part is contract we signed with Glencore which enables us to sell more finished goods.

Henk: Gross profit margins for Technologies. Exclude 7.5M one off in 2018.
Margin 23% versus 27% 2018. Due lower Titanium or market aerospace components pricing pressure?
- All due to lower Titanium prices. No price pressure in Engineering. Only past trough metal prices.

Henk: Restructuring Brazil. Surprise.
Looks like permanent measure to do headcount reduction.
Lithium customer. Gives relief?
- Jackson: Reduces production Q4 2019 / Q1 2020 because back-up inventory in China in Li.
We will deliver the expected amount rebalanced over 2020. Is win-win. Prices are low.
Extra focus on cost of production process.

Henk: Guidance. In past EBITDA, now profit.
- You can replace EBITDA with profitability.

Henk: Price expectation in forecast? Partially based on V price moving upward.
- We expect a slight price correction from present prices. That already happened for Silicon Metal.
Profound increase. Expecting price correction for Vanadium. +60% of Vanadium in the world is happening in China.
We feel that the large steel mills are operating in China, therefor demand regards to rebar is not massively changed.
Certain supply difficulties occur or are occurring. No Vanadium coming out of China at the moment.
World relies on China.
Also, we expect good results on Engineering, reflects backlog.

Stijn: First question on Technologies. You Mentioned issues regarding 737MAX.
Will you see actual impact in 2020? Explanation on weak performance in Q4?
- It's Boeing, not 737MAX. Yes, we expect impact on Ti Alloy. Regarding Leap engine
Reduction. Material impact.
- Due to weak Ti prices. No time effect due to volatility in Q1 2020.

Stijn: Lithium. YOY volumes.
Do you expect to compensate in the remainder of the year in 2020?
Current market situation in Lithium with oversupply mainly in Aus spodumene.
Does this impact plans Lithium expansion?
- Litihium expansion: Is focused on the hydroxide plant in Germany. Quality consolidator of diversified supply.
Also element in financing of expansion of Brazil into Chemicals. Sophistic project finance structure.
Certain imports into Germany provided by that plant.
The whole thing start with that German plant to be the necessary condition of this whole thing to work.
It's a broader question, not only spodumene. Risk management in Brazil.

Stijn: Recent announcements regarding vanadium, like spent catalyst contract renewal and Glencore.
Could you elaborate on how these actions de-risk vanadium expansion.
When to see benefit?
- Main parameter for profitability is foremost the recycling fees.
Recycling fees provide base cashflow. 3 other cashflows: Vanadium, Molybdenum and [...]
Is conctractional fee. Vanadium process show up in our cashflow.
De-risking is massive. We experienced the volatility build up of inventory in 18/19.
The customer watch upward spike, delayed deliveries and therefor inventory build-up.
Contract eliminates risk, whatever is produced is sold once produced.
Contractional index prices do apply.
70M EBITDA drop in 19 would never occurred with contract in place.
De-risking supply side: working complementing very large contract book on feed.
Seeking new catalysts. Spent catalysts seeking home.

Martijn: Regarding IPO Technologies. Can you elaborate timing? Shall we still think 2020?
Regards use of proceeds. Would that build to the German conversion plant or looking for other projects (eg V redux batteries)?
- Timing is ABN AMRO quote. Bad time to make guidance statements on capital market events in aerospace markets. Boeing situation is fluid.
We need to have predictability in this area. When we see stabilization and predictability.
But in the interim we make this company very sellable and attractive. It's a beneficial exercise anyway.
- Redux: We are very aware of market opportunities in Vanadium area. Distinct opportunity.
Prominent candidate for stationary batteries, grid stabilization for net in eg Germany.
Where renewable energy grows is marching ahead especially in solar and where necessary growth to make that happen economically is market size multiples!
We are heavenly involved in study V redux batteries.
That is also related to our future ability to produce V2O5. Strategic element.
You need price predictability (main hurdle) and we are low cost producer.
When people sum up advantages they come to the major disadvantage of Vanadium volatility.
Our strategic objective is to remove that bottleneck.

Martijn: High cost producers exiting vanadium market. Expectation or actually seeing?
- Stone coal producers in China, environmental implications,. They go in and they go out.
Our expectation is that this will; vanish as a mixture of environmental policies and emission controls.
It's unsustainable as regard to the true sense of this word.
Martijn: So expectation?
- Nobody sees anything in China right now :).
Exports have been going down dramatically quarter by quarter.
Reduction in exports is reduction in production.

Martijn: Fluid Boeing situation.
Expecting production stop till June/July?
- No production stop. We are not Ti Alloys delivering particularly to one party.
We are delivering engines for many planes.
You get the letter and then you reduce production.

Martijn: Impact of reduction?
- Impact is not material.

Martijn: German lithium conversion plant. Subsidy?
- Looks progressive. We have customer discussions in a broad way, using our new laboratory.

Martijn: Guidance on spending in 2020
- 250M: 200M Zanesville and 50M rest of company.

Fox WIld
Nou voorlopig valt de daling mij erg mee. Koers nu 20,42.

Edit: iets te vroeg gejuicht. De grote jongens zijn wakker, nu 19,93.
Beursblik: comeback in de maak voor AMG

AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group
20,21 -0,44 -2,13 % Euronext Amsterdam

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) AMG gaat nog steeds gebukt onder scherp dalende grondstofprijzen, maar de outlook wijst voorzichtig omhoog. Dit stelde analist Paul Weeteling van IEX donderdag in reactie op de cijfers van het bedrijf.

AMG heeft in het afgelopen kwartaal de resultaten onder druk zien staan door de scherp gedaalde grondstofprijzen, merkte de analist op. Operationeel gaat het volgens hem echter "vrij redelijk". De fors opgelopen schuldgraad verhoogt het risico, maar de plannen die AMG met het kapitaal heeft, zijn goed doordacht, aldus Weeteling, die wijst op een uitbreiding van de bestaande vanadium-activiteiten en de bouw en uitbreiding van een lithiumfabriek op het terrein van een bestaande mijn.

De operationele kasstroom noemde Weeteling positief. "Dit was, op de schuldratio na, de enige parameter die steeg ten opzichte van vorig jaar dankzij sterk afgenomen voorraden", aldus de analist.

Volgens AMG is het "extreem moeilijk" om een outlook voor 2020 af te geven. Het coronavirus en de problemen van Boeing met de 737 MAX zijn hier mede debet aan. "Toch zijn er wel degelijk een aantal hoopgevende signalen te melden zoals de stabilisatie van grondstofprijzen op een weliswaar laag niveau", aldus IEX.

Verder herhaalde Weeteling de woorden van AMG dat de vanadiumprijs al met 30 procent is opgelopen dit jaar en dat het orderboek van AMG Technologies zich op recordniveau bevindt.

AMG rekent voor 2020 wel op een verbetering van de winstgevendheid. "Dit komt over als een open deur", aldus Weeteling.

"Resumerend was afgelopen kwartaal dus vooral een voortzetting van de voorgaande kwartalen qua resultaten. De kasstroom was een meevaller en de outlook geeft aan dat we in het eerste kwartaal een lichte verbetering mogen verwachten", zo concludeerde de analist.

Volgens IEX is er een comeback in de maak. "AMG zit met name in de grondstoffen die de duurzaamheidsrevolutie ondersteunen dus daar verwachten we het meest krachtige herstel." Daarnaast kan de mogelijke afsplitsing van AMG Technologies volgens IEX "aardig wat" opleveren, al maakt dat het bedrijf nog cyclischer.

IEX handhaafde dan ook het koopadvies. Het aandeel AMG daalde donderdagochtend met 3,2 procent tot 20,00 euro.

Door: ABM Financial News.
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
AEX zal weer dezelfde comeback moeten maken zoals gisteren. Zie ik echter niet 2 dagen op rij gebeuren. Koersreactie valt me eerlijk gezegd nog mee. -4% bij AEX van -2%. Sentiment niet mee. Hopelijk trekt AEX aan en kunnen we tussen quitte en -2% (maar dus > € 20,00) sluiten.
Fox WIld
@TegenBeterWetenin: Ik heb gisteravond de cc beluisterd en volgens mij vroeg Henk Veerman als 2e of 3e vraag naar de timeline voor de IPO van Technology, maar dat zie ik (nog) niet terug in je verslag.
Erwin S
het houdt goed stand. Als het sentiment (Algemene) nu positief omdraait met 1 of 2 positieve adviezen zou het zomaar weer de 23-25 kunnen opzoeken
Louis Pasciuto
Van net debt positief naar 162 miljoen negatief in een jaar omdat Heinz zo nodig wat aandeelhouders tevreden moest houden, wat niet gelukt is omdat de koers lager staat.
Jammer van het algehele slechte sentiment maar koers blijft desalniettemin nu redelijk liggen.

Wat calls september opgepakt.

Zie het ook nog wel groen gaan vandaag.
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Vertraagd 16 sep 2021 17:35
Koers 31,180
Verschil +0,020 (+0,06%)
Hoog 32,020
Laag 31,180
Volume 225.720
Volume gemiddeld 235.408
Volume gisteren 397.634

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