MisterBlues schreef op 15 oktober 2020 20:18:
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Hoe een zekere DD_Police de webcast van vandaag ervaren heeft:
Main takeaways from the Presentation today by Dr. Javitt:
1. By far the most important takeaway is the 21 EAP Patient study vs. 24 patient “control group”: I did not know this, but Dr. Javitt said that the 21 and 24 patients were treated at the exact same hospital, by the exact same doctors, using the exact same Standard of Care, AT THE EXACT SAME TIME!!! The only difference was that 21 got RLF-100 and 24 didn’t. This is an absolutely huge detail that wasn’t communicated in the past. P<0.0001 means that our placebo-controlled trial will absolutely destroy the p-value as well. I really think that 102 patients is more than enough to stop trial TWO WEEKS FROM NOW! In the past I assumed that they pulled out of a database those 24 patients. This is HUGE!
2. Pricing of $9k - $16k per patient for IV Treatment and 600k – 800k annual courses. That is $5.4b - $12.8b annual run rate, o/w half goes to Relief. I believe that Dr. Javitt was talking about US market only.
3. Inhaled Aviptadil at 3-6m patients per year. I believe this covers US market. At $300 a pop that still gets us an additional $1b in annual revenue.
4. Sounds like NeuroRX is doing a merger to list on NYSE. To me it sounded like a reverse merger, where NeuroRX buys some worthless publicly traded on NYSE company just for the ticker symbol and listing to avoid IPO route costs.
5. RLF-100 Approval is all but guaranteed. I still believe that the major hold up is manufacturing. They probably just started lining up manufacturing in August, and it take months just to hash out the legal stuff, sign contracts, then hire employees, train, and start producing. Then you have inspections and quality control (including FDA). I am sure we will get EUA once there is enough drug available. Worst thing you can do is get EUA and run out of drug overnight due to high demand. Once the ball gets rolling, we will get EUA and full approval likely as well.
6. Valuation – At the low end of $6b revenue, of which half goes to Relief, we are looking at $3b in potential annual revenue. It is hard to gauge how sustainable this will be. But if they can expand to other markets (ARDS, Asthma, Sarcoidosis, PH, pneumonia, etc.) and sustain or grow that $3b in revenue, then you are looking at $30b market cap or $10/share. If Dr. Javitt was only talking about the U.S. market, then opening up the rest of the world to RLF-100 will get us above $10/share.