MisterBlues schreef op 3 november 2020 14:45:
Dat verwacht ik niet. Zit niet in hun stijl.
Hier nog een geweldige post van DD_Police van een naburig forum: :)
Two options here:
1. Interim results are good; or
2. They are so good, that the trial needs be halted for ethical reasons to give the placebo patients RLF-100.
There is a third and forth option, both highly unlikely, that the drug isn't very effective or that Dr. J and crew defrauded us.
Option 1 - if the results are good but not great, and they got leaked, then the sell off is justified. The trial may proceed, conclude in December and maybe we get FDA approval. Maybe we make a few sales, maybe we don't as better options show up. Outcome is that this is not the silver bullet to covid. If you believe in this story, you are better off selling today and moving on. If this is the case, then the stock will not yield great returns. If I personally believed in this option, I would cash out today and move on.
Option 2 - Results are so good that the trial will be stopped. If this wasn't an option, than why would Ram say this in the article?
Relief Therapeutics (RLF 0.446 -3.88%) wants to inform you about the decision of the monitoring committee in any case. However, Selvaraju explains that in the event of dropping out of the study because of outstanding results, the data cannot be communicated immediately. "We would have to withhold the details in the case until they are checked by scientists and published in a specialist journal."
Is Ram trying to prep us for what is to come? Does he know the data yet? Let's do some math:
The interim data lock was at least 6 days ago, or more if patient 102 died (who enrolled on 9/30). 28 days later is October 28 for data lock. Takes 2-3 days to compile data and send it towards DSMB. If the data is blowout good, it shouldn't take more than 2-3 days to figure it out. You recommend to Ram and Dr. J ASAP to consider halting the trial. So if the data is that good, then there is a realistic possibility that Ram knows about it.
Remember that Ram is a banker, so why would he go to some obscure newspaper that is citing Mirabaud (who has already proven incompetence when linking RLF-100 to Phasebio's VIP analogue designed to target VPAC2 receptor, while ours targets VPAC1)? Why didn't Ram go to a more reputable source? Maybe because he is a banker himself? Maybe he knows the great data and wants to give all his hedge fund buddies a chance to load up cheap? In case you didn't know Ram is a Managing Director Equity Research Analyst in Biotech sector. All of his clients are Hedge funds, mutual funds, etc. You don't think he would want his clients to load up on the stock as cheap as possible if results were that good?
One thing is for sure, Mirabaud's analysis of Relief and RLF-100 is horrible. They are either purposely incompetent (so buddies can load up cheap), or they know that the drug doesn't work and are trying to let the public know it is time to sell, so that their short selling buddies can cash in. You have to decide which scenario is more likely here.
There is a 5th option as well. The results are great, but since we are close to enrolling all 165 patients, the DSMB might just recommend waiting for the trial to conclude to get more solid data.
If we don't hear about interim results by end of next week, there is 80% chance the trial is getting halted. If we don't hear a week later it is 95% chance the trial is stopped. No news is good news for the next two weeks. The longer the better.
It is election day, you vote with your wallet today. Buy, Hold, Sell. I know what I am doing...