SNSN schreef op 24 februari 2014 12:20:
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NO, it's not true..... Of course, by wrong "sampling" (on particular horizon) one can get any desired "results". But, this is happening when people do NOT understand how statistic sampling is working and how this must be used.... Applying such (wrong) "sampling" one can, for instance, easy "prove" that the educational level in NL is the same like (or even lower than) in Africa - standard mistake of "bad students".
So far, you are actually trying to substitute the reality by your own desire... Do NOT mix up "your wishes" with objective stuff (they may easy be checked using standard math & data-base)
At this point in time we can only say that the existing uptrends are intact - it’s objective and you can’t change it. Before writing something you would better read the graphs - take a look at the 9- , 3-months and 2-weeks graphs, and may also try to draw the trend lines....(or better apply standard “regression tests”). You'll see that we are sitting in rising channels... For the recent behavior take also a look at the bullish reversal formations (although a bit weak with light volume) since very strong bullish reversal "heavy hammer" (high volume)on Feb 12.
By the way, the downside risk for undervalued kpn is the lowest among other aex funds (those who didn’t believe this were investing in “rising PostNL” - they have the results now)
As for the “technical risk”, don’t forget that we are rising faster than our systemic trend-channel formed since Aug 2013. So, the “strongest risk” is still a "flattening" of current trend, i.e. the “risk” is “to rise not so fast”.....
One more time - as you see (constant drift), we do NOT have any new objective info and follow standard technical pattern trading....(regular changing sub-trends we move up within the trend borders formed couple of weeks ago). Thus, our pattern target is ~3.0-3.04 (it is also a “mid-term resistance”) with possible short consolidation at ~2.82-2.84.
PS. Yes, the fair value is around ~4.0 - and it's a good incentive, especially if you take into account that a very large volume is still sitting above ~3.2. Again, undervalued kpn is NOT correlated with (overvalued) aex and other indices, which are preparing for corrections and high volatility....