Flooi schreef op 28 augustus 2023 21:56:
Beste leden, al een aantal jaar volg ik dit forum maar heb nu toch maar een account aangemaakt. Zelf beleg ik ook via ABN en viel mij op dat er intern inderdaad ren advies is de laatste is van 28 Juli 25€ , daarbij staat het volgende:
Argumentatie
In November 2018, Fugro launched its ‘Path to Profitable Growth’ strategy, with the plan to become the world’s leading geodata specialist. It defined three objectives: 1. Capture growth in energy & infrastructure by pushing volumes higher through its market-leading platforms and making its pricing mechanism smarter while improving efficiency 2. Differentiate via integrated digital solutions to maintain its market leadership, but also to deliver on its efficiency improvement goals. 3. Leverage core expertise in new growth markets, understanding that its dependence on oil & gas has been too high in the recent past. Fugro is expanding in markets such as ‘water supply’, ‘ocean mapping’, ‘flood protection’ and ‘secure positioning’. For the mid-term (2023-2024 now), Fugro defined targets of an EBIT margin of 8-12%, a ROCE of 10-15%, and a FCF of 4-7% of revenue, with expected revenues of € 1.6-2.0bn and expected capex of € 80-110m. Expecting Fugro to meet its mid-term targets, we assume it will new higher mid-term targets at its next CMD in H2 2023. We expect Fugro to improve its EBIT margin ambitions to 10-15% (from 8-12%), and its ROCE ambitions to 15+% (from 10-15%). We expect the company to re-install its dividend policy, albeit with stock optionality in light of the strongly growing end markets. We see room for further upgrades in consensus estimates and again reiterate that at the CMD mid-November we expect Fugro to further lift its medium term return and margin ambitions. Using similar valuation metrics as for our old TP (c. 7x 24e
EBITDA, 11-12x 24e EBIT and 14x PER, we have a 12 months target price of € 25. Using similar valuation metrics for our 2025e earnings forecasts, would yield a 24 months TP of € 30.
Met het laatste bericht:
28/7/23 Feedback analyst meeting
CEO Mark Heine and CFO Barbara Geelen hosted a live analyst meeting in Amsterdam, with main focus on the fact that Fugro in 2023 will deliver on its mid-term margin and return targets, with the promise to update the market on strategy and future targets at the CMD on 14 November.Margin outlook H2 2023. After having delivered on 8.9% EBIT margin in H1 despite two project disappointments in the Middle East (delayed start Adnoc’s Zakum project, downtime on a jack-up), the CEO confirms that H2 margins normally from a seasonal perspective are better than H1, that Zakum now has started up, but is not yet willing to confirm this also this year will be the case.Capex. Fugro for 2023 is guiding for € 200-225m of capex. In H1 this was just € 71.8m including an estimated c. € 25m for the first Topaz vessel (now named Fugro Resilience), implying it expects another c. € 130-150m for H2. The 2nd Topaz vessel will be delivered in Q3. Both vessels will be in the yard for conversion and upgrade to become operational in 2024. Fugro further is close to agreeing on extension of the lease contracts for the Fugro Scout and Voyager, and aims to also upgrade these vessels with a hybrid package plus DP capabilities. Disciplined working capital management. With H1 revenues 22% higher than a year ago, working capital was up by just 8% to € 275m, reducing the DSO in peak season to 82 days from 89 days a year ago, and in percentage of revenues to 14.1% from 15.7%, in our view showing the CFO is making progress in managing its treasury but also in adjusting client contract conditions. Backlog up 21%. Fugro’s backlog in Americas is up 30% y-o-y, in Asia Pacific up 31%, in Middle East – India up 51% but in Europe-Africa up just 6%. CEO Mark Heine reiterates that main region Europe-Africa already earlier delivered on a strong recovery track and that now the other regions are following. We assume the new capex is also meant to further expand the Europe potential. Committed to become dividend stock again. The CFO confirmed that key conditions for bringing dividend back are there: the cash generation is good, and the balance sheet clean. But she also reminds that the current market is offering a lot of growth opportunities as well. The CEO stated “we absolutely have the intention to become a dividend stock again”, as such strengthening our view that the company will probably announce such dividend plan at the CMD in November.Weaker performance Land. Revenues in Land were 8.6% higher than a year ago, but c. € 30m lower than expected due to the Middle East project delays. We assume the profit miss in Middle East was c. € 10m and thus are happy to see that the Zakum project has now started./