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OIL, the Final Thread(/t?)

1.143 Posts
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  1. [verwijderd] 7 juni 2006 16:52
    Greenspan: Pricey oil no big deal, yet

    Says world economy has weathered price of energy well due to deregulation and globalization; defends big fund money in oil.
    June 7, 2006: 10:42 AM EDT

    (NEW YORK) - CNNMoney.com) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman told lawmakers Wednesday that thanks to deregulation and globalization, the U.S. and world economy has been able to withstand the high price of oil, but some recent signs indicate that may be ending.

    "It is difficult to find serious erosion in world economic activity as a result of rising oil prices," said Greenspan, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations committee. "But recent data indicate we are finally experiencing some impact."

    Greenspan generally supported market forces as a means of dealing with energy policy and cautioned against what he said was a growing trend toward protectionism within the U.S., saying flexibility had helped allow the country to weather not only the recent oil price shocks but other major events like September 11, 2001 and the stock market crash of 1987.

    "It undermines the flexibility process," He said. "It limits the ability of everything to move."

    He also defended big investment fund money in the oil markets, often criticized for artificially driving up prices, as bringing about necessary changes.

    "Speculators...[T]end to advance the adjustment process so when corrections occur they are far less abrupt," he said. "We are literally seeing significant acceleration of energy production in the corporate sector and a decline in demand. That would not have happened without the financial sector."

    He said high prices have been effective in bringing helping bring the growth in demand down, but said more is needed.

    "One in seven barrels [of oil production worldwide] are used on U.S. highways," said Greenspan. "How do we get consumption down?"

    Although he said more conservation is needed, he didn't directly answer one Senator who asked if the government should take the lead in aggressively developing new energy sources.

    He blamed the high prices partly on a lack of refining capacity and partly on a lack of reinvestment by foreign nationalized oil companies.

    Greenspan pointed out that U.S. oil consumption has risen far slower than its growth in GDP and that bio fuels such as ethanol derived from plant stalks and other material, as well as nuclear and clean coal, will help wean the country from oil in the future.

    But he also pointed to simple supple and demand rules - the fact that additions to proven reserves have not kept pace with current production - as another reason why prices have spiked.

    money.cnn.com/2006/06/07/news/economy...
  2. [verwijderd] 7 juni 2006 17:43
    Slecht nieuws voor Europa:

    EU stelt Opec gerust over vraag naar olie

    De Europese Unie zal de komende jaren om steeds meer olie vragen, ondanks alternatieve energiebronnen als biodiesel en windmolens.

    Gerustgesteld
    Minister Martin Bartenstein van huidig EU-voorzitter Oostenrijk zei dat tijdens een persconferentie in Brussel na de derde EU-OPEC ontmoeting. De Opec, een organisatie van olieproducerende en -exporterende landen, wilde graag die zekerheid hebben. De organisatie zegt gerustgesteld te zijn.

    Alternatieven
    De Europese Unie onderzoekt al geruime tijd alternatieve energebronnen en neemt deze ook in gebruik. De Opec was bang dat dit ten koste zou gaan van de vraag naar olie. "We hebben tamelijk grote investeringen gepland, dus we willen wel enige vraagzekerheid."

    Piekprijs
    De woorden komen vreemd over gezien de huidige hoge olieprijs waar de economieën onder gebukt gaan. Dit zou een minder drukkend effect hebben wanneer er minder afhankelijkheid was van de olieprijs. Maar Opec-voorzitter Daukoru noemt de huidige prijs een piek.

    Speculatie
    "De huidige prijzen moeten ons denken niet bepalen. We zien hierbij de rol van speculanten. En de raffinage is een knelpunt: maatschappijen hebben te weinig geïnvesteerd in nieuwe raffinaderijen voor de groeiende vraag." Daukuro zegt dat de Opec zelf de prijs niet kan laten dalen. Hij verwacht dat de prijs daalt wanneer de Verenigde Staten en Iran hun conflict bijleggen. Iran is één van de grootste olie-exporteurs ter wereld.

    www.rtl.nl/(/financien/rtlz/home/)/co...

  3. [verwijderd] 7 juni 2006 20:23
    ik lees positieve elementen uit greenspan's praatje , "economie veel sterker gegroeid dan vraag naar olie"

    van dft

    Greenspan: nauwelijks gevolgen hoge olieprijs


    AMSTERDAM (ANP-AFX) - De hoge olieprijzen hebben nog geen kwalijke gevolgen hebben gehad voor de Amerikaanse en de wereldeconomie. Dit komt door de economische globalisering en deregulatie, aldus Alan Greenspan.
    De voormalig voorzitter van het stelsel van Amerikaanse centrale banken sprak woensdag een commissie van de Amerikaanse Senaat toe. Volgens Greenspan, die eind januari aftrad na achttien jaar leiding te hebben gegeven aan de Federal Reserve, hangt de huidige hoge olieprijs gedeeltelijk samen met een gebrek aan raffinagecapaciteit en investeringen door genationaliseerde oliemaatschappijen in het buitenland.
    "Het is echter moeilijk te zien waar in de wereld de hoge olieprijs merkbaar voor economische erosie heeft gezorgd. Alleen uit recente data valt eindelijk iets van een kwalijke invloed van de hoge olieprijs op te maken." Volgens Greenspan hebben Amerikaanse bedrijven de hogere energieprijzen weten op te vangen door efficiënter te gaan werken. Alleen de Amerikaanse consument heeft volgens hem last van de hoge olieprijzen.
    Biobrandstoffen
    De oud-Fed-voorman wees er verder op dat het Amerikaanse bruto binnenlands product (bbp), de totale waarde van alle in de VS geproduceerde goederen en diensten, veel sterker is gegroeid dan het oliegebruik in de Verenigde Staten. Volgens Greenspan zorgen de hoge olieprijzen er voor dat de VS na verloop van tijd minder afhankelijk worden van olie. Hij denkt dat biobrandstoffen, zoals ethanol en koolzaadolie, in de toekomst de VS zullen helpen het olieverbruik terug te dringen.
    De 80-jarige Greenspan liet zich niet uit over het rentebeleid in de VS of over economische verwachtingen. Het was zijn eerste toespraak in de Senaat sinds zijn aftreden. Greenspan heeft tegenwoordig een eigen adviesbureau, geeft speeches en werkt aan een boek. Hij is bij de Fed opgevolgd door Ben Bernanke.
  4. [verwijderd] 7 juni 2006 20:36
    quote:

    eurodrop schreef:

    ik lees positieve elementen uit greenspan's praatje , "economie veel sterker gegroeid dan vraag naar olie"

    van dft

    Voor de KT zeker. Voor de LT is het niet zo positief. Logisch ook. De hoge prijs begint langzaam aan door te werken. Contracten met nog een lage olie/gasprijs verdwijnen langzaam uit het systeem.
  5. [verwijderd] 7 juni 2006 22:37
    ja, idd.
    wordt lang uitzieken deze olie-dorst.

    wel:
    bouw (8jaar)nieuwe stuwdam in china aangekondigd (capac. 2/3 van 3klovendam)

    iedereen aan de navigator (tomtom en cs)
    1:20 auto's -vraag omhoog (japanners ?)

    antonov (rijdt goedkoper)

    rds bij aanstaande 1e orkaan

  6. [verwijderd] 9 juni 2006 10:29
    Oil sticks at $70 as supply concerns hard to shake

    SINGAPORE - Oil prices consolidated above $70 on Friday as traders remained cautious on the potential for improved supplies from Iraq and reduced tension over Iran’s nuclear programme.

    US crude oil had risen 5 cents to $70,40 a barrel in early trade, after falling 47 cents yesterday. London Brent crude rose 14 cents to $69,19 a barrel.

    Prices dipped below $70 yesterday after US aircraft killed Al-Qaeda’s leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, raising some hope for an improvement in security that could help Iraq’s wrecked oil industry recover.

    But analysts warned against reading too much into the killing of Zarqawi, who masterminded the deaths of hundreds in bombings, saying it would not end threats to an oil sector curtailed by decades of war and sanctions.

    "We suspect that the death of Zarqawi will not bring more security to the Iraqi oil sector, where political instability and violence will continue to hamper exports and investment," said David Thurtell of the Commomwealth Bank of Australia.

    Iraq is struggling to pump 2 million barrels per day, down from about 2,5 million bpd before the US-led invasion in 2003. A quarter of Nigeria’s output has also been cut by militant attacks while concern remains over Iran’s supplies.

    Iran launched a fresh round of uranium enrichment this week just as world powers offered it incentives to halt nuclear fuel work with the potential to produce atomic bombs, a UN watchdog said yesterday.

    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday the Islamic state would "talk about mutual concerns and solving misunderstandings in the international arena."

    But the president’s remarks came a day after Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh said Iran could still use its oil exports for leverage in the dispute over its nuclear programme.

    Traders also remain on edge over supply disruptions in Nigeria, the world’s eight-largest exporter, where militants released five kidnapped South Korean contractors yesterday, after attacking a Shell-operated facility in the Niger Delta.

    The bullish impact of supply disruptions and geopolitical tension is being moderated by worries that high prices are feeding inflation and slower growth in key consumers such as the US, helping push oil down from April’s record $75,35.

    A draft Group of 8 communique, seen by Reuters yesterday, said high oil prices may damage the world economy more in the future than they have done so far.

    A signal on supply and demand came from US government data this week that showed a further rise in gasoline and distillate fuel stocks, providing a more comfortable supply cushion for the northern summer when drivers take to the roads.

    US crude supplies also increased unexpectedly last week on lower refinery output, taking stocks 4,2% above this time last year.

    Opec crude producers have been pumping at near full rates in a bid to ease prices and agreed last week to keep output levels unchanged.

    The cartel will raise oil shipments by 210,000 bpd in the four weeks to June 24, with extra barrels heading to Asian consumers, an oil shipping analyst said yesterday.

    And production from non-Opec Norway, the third-biggest exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia, rose to a preliminary 2,38 million bpd on average in May from 2,22 million in April, government figures showed yesterday

    www.businessday.co.za/articles/econom...
  7. [verwijderd] 14 juni 2006 18:05
    BP investeert 50 miljard dollar in vinden van olie

    Het Britse olie- en gasconcern British Petroleum (BP) trekt de komende vijf jaar 50 miljard dollar uit voor het vinden, winnen en produceren van nieuwe energiebronnen.

    Het bedrag is ongeveer gelijk aan de investeringen van de afgelopen vijf jaar. Toen trok BP 47 miljard dollar uit. Het nieuwe investeringsgeld wordt aangewend voor gasprojecten in in Alaska, Indonesië, de Kaspische Zee en het oosten van Siberië. Verder wordt de olieproductie vergroot in Angola, Rusland en de Golf van Mexico.

    Noordzee
    BP stelt dat de productie van olie in de Noordzee over het hoogtepunt is. Toch zal het de komende vijf jaar 6 miljard uittrekken voor de winning van olie en gas dat er nog te vinden is.

    Biobrandstof
    Nog eens een half miljard wordt uitgetrokken voor het onderzoek naar andere energie, zoals biobrandstoffen. BP richt zich met het onderzoek op biologische componenten die met fossiele brandstoffen kunnen worden gemengd en op methoden om meer biobrandstoffen uit gewassen te halen. Ook denkt het concern aan nieuwe plantensoorten die een grotere opbrengst hebben en die kunnen worden geteeld in gebieden die ongeschikt zijn voor voedselgewassen.

    www.rtl.nl/(/financien/rtlz/home/)/co...
  8. [verwijderd] 20 juni 2006 12:46
    Oil up; U.N. Iran action still possible
    But gains in crude are limited by fear that high prices will lessen demand.
    June 20, 2006: 6:39 AM EDT

    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil pushed toward $70 a barrel on Tuesday on the risk of a disruption to Iranian supplies, but was limited by fears that high prices and tighter policies in China and the United States will curb demand.

    U.S. light, sweet crude gained 72 cents to $69.70 a barrel on Tuesday ahead of the July contract's expiry, having lost 90 cents or 1.3 percent on Monday. European benchmark Brent crude was down 10 cents at $68.01.

    Oil prices, which have traded in a $68-$73 band for more than six weeks, fell a day ago after Iran's foreign minister said there was a "positive atmosphere" in the dispute over its atomic work, raising hopes for a resolution to the six-month standoff.

    But he did not say when Tehran would respond to a package of incentives meant to stop its nuclear programme, and President George Bush reiterated on Monday that Iran faced the prospect of U.N. Security Council action if it rejected the offer.

    "The Iranian nuclear issue can turn very bullish any time and therefore ... is flooring the market in the short-term," French bank Societe Generale said in a report.

    The six world powers which offered the package have given Iran, the fourth biggest oil exporter, until a Group of 8 industrialized nations summit in mid-July to reply.

    U.S., China demand worries
    Concerns over the strength of oil demand in the two biggest consumers has also undermined prices, pushing them further away from a record high $75.35 a barrel in April, when fears over Iran's supply and the loss of a quarter of Nigeria's output reignited anxiety over the global supply chain.

    "The market is caught between the big macro picture of not enough surplus production and refining capacity on the one hand, and faltering demand on the other hand," said Tony Nunan, assistant general manager of risk management at Mitsubishi.

    In its monthly report on Monday, OPEC said near-record $70 a barrel oil was already curbing demand and the full effects of higher interest rates may be felt next year.

    On Friday China, the world's second-biggest oil user, moved to curb growth by raising the proportion of money banks must keep in reserve, triggering a slump in other commodity markets.

    Since the start of the year OPEC, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia, has slowed output in anticipation of slowing demand and as global crude oil stocks reached 20-year highs. As a share of demand, stocks are well below where they were in the 1970s.

    U.S. crude inventories were expected to have eased by 100,000 barrels last week, while gasoline stocks rose by a hefty 1.1 million barrels, their eighth build in a row, despite the start of the driving season, according to a Reuters poll.

    The first weather-related U.S. refinery glitches occurred on Monday, sounding a warning after weather forecasters have predicted a more active than average hurricane season.

    Citgo Petroleum's refinery in Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Total SA's Port Arthur, Texas, refineries had to interrupt production on Monday due to heavy rainstorms. Operations returned to normal later in the day.

    money.cnn.com/2006/06/20/markets/oil....
  9. [verwijderd] 20 juni 2006 16:05
    Hoe op te vangen? Lijkt me tijd dat "de" beleidsmakers nachten wakker gaan liggen...

    EIA: Future world oil demand to soar!
    By Karl Heilman
    20 Jun 2006 at 09:44 AM

    World oil demand should soar from this year's almost 86 million barrels per day to 118 million bpd by 2030, even though higher fuel prices will cut back some petroleum usage, the U.S. government's top energy forecasting agency predicted Tuesday.

    Much of the growth in global oil consumption over the next quarter century will come from the non-industrialized nations in Asia, where the strong economies of China and India will gobble up more barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy.

    "Much of the world's incremental oil demand is projected for use in the transportation sector, where there are few competitive alternatives to petroleum," EIA said in its annual long-term international energy supply and demand forecast.

    www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?r...
  10. [verwijderd] 21 juni 2006 16:51
    Olie vooralsnog licht down op de voorraadcijfers...

    Oil prices teeter as crude stocks swell

    But a surprise build comes as gasoline supplies miss mark.
    June 21, 2006: 10:43 AM EDT

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Oil prices see-sawed Wednesday after the government said crude supplies rose more than expected.

    U.S. crude for August delivery gained 11 cents to 69.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil was nearly flat just prior to the report.

    The Energy Information Administration, in its weekly stockpile report, said crude supplies rose by 1.4 million barrels. Analysts were looking for a drop of 200,000 barrels, according to Reuters.

    Distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, rose by 1.7 million barrels while gasoline supples increased by 300,000 barrels. Analysts were looking for a 1.2 million gain in distillate stocks and a 1.2 million barrel build in gasoline supplies.

    money.cnn.com/2006/06/21/markets/oil_...
  11. [verwijderd] 5 juli 2006 19:08
    quote:

    postzak schreef:

    Olie staat boven de $ 74. Valt me weer op hoe weinig aandacht er voor is.
    Boven de $ 75 met dank aan N-Korea. Al valt het effect mee, omdat er in die regio weinig olie geproduceerd wordt.
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de volitaliteit verwacht indicator betekend: Market moving event/hoge(re) volatiliteit verwacht