saffi2002 schreef:
[quote=Eisbear]
[quote=saffi2002]
Na vijf jaar uit Vivus te zijn geweest zit ik er sterk over te denken weer eens een positie in te nemen. Zijn er nog meer mensen die nog steeds met een schuin oog naar Vivus kijken?
Groetjes, Saffi
finance.yahoo.com/news/Vivus-Qnexa-in...We view Qnexa as the leading phase III obesity candidate under development today. Vivus, Inc. (NasdaqGM: VVUS - News) has shown that Qnexa offers a synergistic benefit off added weight loss to patients beyond what can be achieved with phentermine or topiramate alone.
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Symbol Price Change
VVUS 4.93 0.00
{"s" : "vvus","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""} Phase III data released by the company from the EQUATE program in December 2008 demonstrated the drug to be both highly efficacious and well tolerated. Patients on the full commercial dose of Qnexa lost a placebo-adjusted 16.5 lbs, or 7.5% of their body weight, after only 28 weeks of treatment. Additionally, we are less concerned with the safety, specifically the cardiovascular or psychiatric side effects, of the drug compared to recently rejected and discontinued cannabinoid type 1 receptor molecules at several large pharmaceutical companies.
Our trepidation at this point stems from the lack of long-term safety data -- currently being conducted -- and a lack of confidence in the FDA. That being said, if approved for obesity, Qnexa has blockbuster ($1 billion plus) potential. Vivus is also developing the drug for type 2 diabetes, an enormous problem with significant co-morbidity in the obesity population (and vice versa). Mid-stage diabetes data has been outstanding. Full approval in both obesity and type 2 diabetes, along with a strong worldwide commercialization partner to market it, makes Qnexa a multi-billion dollar drug.
Vivus current trades with a market capitalization of only $310 million. Management exited the first quarter 2009 with $165 million in cash on hand, positive initial phase III data on a potential blockbuster multi-billion dollar drug, and two additional niche multi-hundred million dollar phase III drugs in sexual dysfunction.
By almost all calculations, the stock looks significantly undervalued. However, the risks of clinical development are high and getting drugs past the U.S. FDA, specifically in the area of behaviorally modification such as obesity, has been difficult.
The key wildcard events over the next few quarters include the 56-week phase III data on Qnexa from the EQUIP and CONQUER clinical trials -- expected in the third quarter 2009, and the initial phase III data on avanafil -- expected in the fourth quarter of 2009. Additionally, management is likely to start entertaining partnership discussions on Qnexa, and potentially even avanafil and Luramist, later in 2009.
Vivus would be an extremely attractive acquisition target for a larger pharmaceutical company. Obesity is a highly coveted and wide-open market. Big pharma managements are clearly interested in obesity, as well as sexual dysfunction. The acquisition of Vivus brings in three phase III candidates -- something most big pharma companies are in desperate need of. As visibility on Qnexa and avanafil improve, we would not be surprised to see interest from potential suitors soar.
Read the full analyst report on VVUS
[/quote]
Ik heb een positie ingenomen op 4,65. Lijkt me LT een mooi aandeel, goed gepositioneerd.
[/quote]
VVUS: + 72%....
Ik hoop dat jij ook een fijne dag had ;)
mvg, Saffi