nestel schreef op 23 november 2012 11:18:
A few more thoughts on TNT Express – Implied probability of deal happening is only 19%
Het gaat NIET alleen over de , volgens hen, 19% ! Zie de vermelde koers bij 50/50 volgens hen...valueandopportunity.com/2012/11/21/a-......
For TNT Express, the truly “undisturbed” price the day before the offer was 6,34 EUR, so the current price is around 10% higher than that level.
...
There were a couple of articles which said that there is now a 50/50 chance of the deal happening, like here.
However at current prices(6.95 EUR) we can relatively easily calculate the implied probability of the deal happening:
Undisturbed price: 6.34 EUR
Current prcie: 6.95 EUR
Offer price: 9,50 EUR
So the implied probabality of the deal happening can be calculated the following way:
(6.95-6.34) / (9.50-6.34) = 19.3%.
Anyone who thinks that there is really a 50/50 chance of the deal happening should buy now as the expected share price under this assumption should be 7.92 EUR (6.34 + (9.5-6.34)/2).Going back to timing: What we haven’t seen here is a upmove of the stock like we have seen with Rhoen. So far we only saw the price going doen and the implied probability of the deal happening decreasing.
B) intrinsic value
This is somwhow difficult. The 9,50 EUR is a “private market” value, maybe including a premium for synergies.
TNT Express since its spin off has yet to prove that they can achieve margins like their competitors. Based on Q3 numbers, they are curently heading to something like 220 mn “operating income” or EBITDA for 2012 which equals an “operating margin” of only 3%.
UPS for example has an operating margin of 11.4%, FedEx of 7.8%. Deutsche Post has an ~9% EBIT Margin in the Express segment. So TNT has definitely some room to improve.
If we assume 8% operating margin, TNT would show ~600 mn EBITDA. Current EV is 3.5 bn, potential EV/EBITDA ~6.
This is much lower than UPS (10x EV/EBITDA) but higher than Fedex (4.9x). Deutsche Post is at 5 times EV/EBITDA.
So at current prices and assuming quite a turn around, TNT Express is not really cheap. So any investment would be a pure “Merger arbitrage” or “control premium” inevstment which might or not work out.
No action yet.
Edit: During writing this post, the share price jumped some 3.5% compared to yesterday, is this the first leg of the rebound ?…..
Vanaf 14.30 afgelopen 2 dagen grote significante TNT volumespikes en koers up. Dus toch buitenlandse kopers..