Maart. Best Q1 ever

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geldmaker
0
Inderdaad jammer heb zelf geen zin om de hele dag achter de computer te zitten maar blijft naar.
Zou echt willen dat ze bij iedere muisklik een fee zouden heffen .Goed voor de schatkist en de echte BELEGGERS.
Leuk om te zien dat Zwarte Ridder er weer is.
gerrit 69
0
De laatste beursdag voor de Pasen zijn de omzetten zoals gewoonlijk op de beurs laag en eigenlijk geen maatstaf om een goed beeld te vormen.
Het aandeel AMG probeert te herstellen maar loopt zich stuk tegen de weerstand van € 36,00
Volgende week dinsdag zal het met weinig nieuws ook wel een rustige beursdag worden.
Just lucky
1
Aan het begin een grote koper en de koers ging flink omhoog. Koper ging weg, omzet zakt en de algoritmes nemen het weer over. Met miniscule orders koers weer flink teruggezet.
DeZwarteRidder
0
quote:

geldmaker schreef op 29 maart 2018 11:22:


Inderdaad jammer heb zelf geen zin om de hele dag achter de computer te zitten maar blijft naar.
Zou echt willen dat ze bij iedere muisklik een fee zouden heffen .Goed voor de schatkist en de echte BELEGGERS.
Leuk om te zien dat Zwarte Ridder er weer is.

Eerlijk gezegd word ik niet goed van dat gezeur over elektrische auto's op dit draadje, want die hebben niks te maken met AMG.

AMG heeft ALLEEN te maken met de PRIJS van lithium (op dit moment zelfs dat nog niet).
We hebben helemaal niks aan 100 miljoen elektrische auto's als de lithiumprijs gaat dalen.

Struin
0
En zo is het, pluim zwarte ridder!!! AMG is veel en veel meer dan alleen lithium:-)
dasD
0
Pasen gaat Amg een paar gouden eieren leggen.

Amg zal rijzen uit het dramatische koersverloop (van de laatste 2 maanden).

Fijn lang weekend gewenst en een fijn paasfeest (voor de gelovige mens)

Tom3
1
Matt Bohlsen zijn laatste opinie over lithium juniors:
seekingalpha.com/article/4159678-lith...

Dat de EV markt geen invloed heeft op de prijs van lithium is een belachelijk idee.
Just lucky
0
Volgens mij had iemand op dit forum gevraagd om een update met wat foto's. Dat hebben ze dus gedaan:)
dasD
0
Oh cool. De fotos waar ik vorige week om gevraagd had staan op de site.
Dank je redementzoeker

Die planning zit snor !

Ziet er goed uit. Plaatje zegt meer dan 1000 forumopmerkingen (bij wijze van verspreken)

Bijna openingsfeestje.

Wanneer stond de opening gepland?

Umi1
18
mede aandeelhouders, ik heb een blog over AMG geschreven op Seeking Alpha.
Enig idee waar ik aanpassingen kan doen, wat beter & duidelijker moet? Het leest nog niet echt vlot & is een hele hoop om te verwerken. Dus graag gefundeerde kritiek, dan ik na wat aanpassingen dit mss als volwaardig 'artikel' posten.

seekingalpha.com/instablog/33835835-u...
Topperke
3
quote:

DeZwarteRidder schreef op 29 maart 2018 11:34:


[...]
Eerlijk gezegd word ik niet goed van dat gezeur over elektrische auto's op dit draadje, want die hebben niks te maken met AMG.

AMG heeft ALLEEN te maken met de PRIJS van lithium (op dit moment zelfs dat nog niet).
We hebben helemaal niks aan 100 miljoen elektrische auto's als de lithiumprijs gaat dalen.



Wat een zever.
De 2 grootste factoren voor de lithiumprijs zijn volgens mij:
1. Het aanbod: hoeveel nieuwe mijnen worden er geopend?
2. De vraag: het grootste deel beïnvloed door de elektrische auto's. Hoe meer vraag naar elektrische auto's, hoe meer vraag naar lithium en hoe hoger de prijs zal gaan van lithium. Logisch toch.

In vele artikels valt te lezen dat het aanbod van lithium beperkt zal blijven de komende jaren. Langs de andere kant willen vele auto-instructeurs tegen 2025 25%+ van hun omzet uit elektrische auto's halen. China is ook heel belangrijk & de trend is daar volledig richting elektrisch!
Ik geloof dat we deze hoge lithiumprijs kunnen vasthouden.
Aan deze lithiumprijzen zal lithium by far de grootste winstmotor worden voor AMG doordat ze hierop zo'n enorme marges hebben.
Tom3
0
quote:

Umi1 schreef op 29 maart 2018 14:01:


mede aandeelhouders, ik heb een blog over AMG geschreven op Seeking Alpha.
Enig idee waar ik aanpassingen kan doen, wat beter & duidelijker moet? Het leest nog niet echt vlot & is een hele hoop om te verwerken. Dus graag gefundeerde kritiek, dan ik na wat aanpassingen dit mss als volwaardig 'artikel' posten.

seekingalpha.com/instablog/33835835-u...


Ziet er goed uit Umi1. Er zijn een paar Engelse woorden die iets anders zouden kunnen worden geformuleerd maar het is niet storend. AB
Topperke
0
quote:

Umi1 schreef op 29 maart 2018 14:01:


mede aandeelhouders, ik heb een blog over AMG geschreven op Seeking Alpha.
Enig idee waar ik aanpassingen kan doen, wat beter & duidelijker moet? Het leest nog niet echt vlot & is een hele hoop om te verwerken. Dus graag gefundeerde kritiek, dan ik na wat aanpassingen dit mss als volwaardig 'artikel' posten.

seekingalpha.com/instablog/33835835-u...

Top initiatief!
gerrit 69
2
Voor de liefhebbers van AMG.

Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG)
Mar. 28, 2018 9:51 PM ET|Includes: Albemarle Corporation (ALB), ALTAF, AMVMF, AZZVF, FMC, GALXF, KDDRF, LAC, LGORF, LIT, OROCF, PILBF, PRPCF, SQM, TSLA, TWNAF, UMICY
Summary
A global critical materials company at the forefront of CO2 reduction trends.

AMG looks very interesting @ €35 per share. Shareprice dropped significantly last month, although results came in better than analyst consensus.

Average analyst consensus (AMG site) is € 52,4. That's aprox. 50% upside @ present share price.

AMG is starting lithium concentrate production in a few months. 90k ton spodumene a year in fase 1 & doubling that in 2020. Downstream LCE is expected in the future.

AMG is planning to expand it's Vanadium recycling business with 30% by the end of 2019.

Introduction

AMG is divided in 2 main segments;

- Critical Materials; basically they mine, recycle or proces the following metals; Vanadium, Lithium , Tantalum & Niobium, Titanium & Aluminum alloys, Chrome/superalloys, Silicon, Antimony, Graphite.

- Engineering; They are the world leader in vacuum heat treatment services. Better known as 'ALD vacuum technologies'. They mainly serve automotive, aerospace, energy (including solar and nuclear), superalloys and specialty steel industries.

If you like more info about their businesses, this link is a good starting point!

AMG trades @ Euronext Amsterdam (NYSE:AMX). The ticker symbol is (AMG.AS). AMG reports its results in US$ but the stock trades in €.

I'm only going to cover a few (probably the most profitable) businesses within AMG.

Lithium Project

AMG's most important mining activities are located in Brazil @ the Mibra mine. They are exploiting that (open pit) mine for more than 40 years. Tantalum & Niobium has been there most important ore for years. But several years ago they noticed that there were high degrees of lithium in that ore. So they started a pilot plant & stockpiled the tailings of the processed ore. 7 years later they are ready to start production. Official opening is planned the 15th of may. AMG's states that they are among the lowest cost hard rock producers, if not the lowest cost producer. AMG’s spodumene operating costs benefit from the production of tantalum concentrate, which absorb the costs of mining and initial ore processing (crushing and grinding), they target a production cost of 134$/ton. So with current prices of around 850-950$/ton for spodumene that is highly profitable! The lithium story is planned in 3 stages;

- Fase 1; 90 k ton spodumene. 3year 'variable' contract @ somewhere north of 800$/ton (related to some Chinese spot prices & with downside protection I assume)

- Fase 2; 90k ton spodumene + doubling Tantalum production to 600k lbs concentrate + expanding of the mine infrastructure. The Capex for this project will come in @ around $ 110M. MGMT said they were in negotiations for an off take agreement. (last conference call)

- Fase 3; Downstream Lithium. This project is progressing well, they already got a site location & are under negotiation with (local) Brazilian governments. AMG seeks for stable LT contracts. AMG expects LCE production costs of aprox. 4000$/ton.

the life of mine would be aprox. 20 years, but I expect more drilling to come in the future.

You can find more info in this presentation.

Tantalum mining & processing

It's a bit comparable to the Cobalt story, most of the world supply comes from (illegal) mining in Congo, Rwanda & Burundi. AMG delivers conflict free Tantalum & that is an asset these days! There were some issues last year, such as a fire in 1 of the 2 production lines & a contract termination by 'GAM'. AMG did not agree with the decision of GAM & this story is going to be continued in court. The production line is back on steams since the end of september & insurance paid all the damage done. In the meanwhile AMG has sold al it's Tantalum in a 1year contract. I guess they don't want to sell on a long term contract, cause of the 'GAM' courtcase. The GAM-contract was very profitable, rumors say it came @ 130$/lb. Spot prices were 96$/lb on the 2nd of march according to AMG's latest presentation. That's 14% higher than the average for Q4 17.

One of the main uses of tantalum is in the production of electronic components, mainly portable electronics.

an older Roskill report on Tantalum; (the info on AMG is wrong though :) )

Vanadium Recycling

AMG Vanadium is the sole producer/recycler of FeV in North America. They have LT contracts to process and recycle spent catalysts from a major oil refinery in North America. This is a very cost effective & environmentally friendly way to process FeV. Since there are no competitors left in NA, AMG Vanadium must be doing something right?! AMG has LT contracts with downside protection, so that's very interesting to stay profitable when prices are on the lower side. @ current prices of 34 to 35$/lb, AMG will make a load of money. This business was highly profitable during 2017 when the average price was aprox 15,4$/lb. The great news is that AMG will expand it's business with 30% by the end of 2019 (if they get environmental approval, I don't expect any problems there since it's a critical material to the USA). Dutch bank ING, expects it to impact Ebitda with $ 12,5M in case FeV prices normalize & with $ 27,5M if prices stay high, prices were aprox. 27$/lb when their analyst spoke to the newspaper. So if prices remain where they are. There would be even more upside!

Why are Vanadium prices that high? It's a mixture of reasons; Chinese environmental restrictions which lowers the output significantly, new rebar standards in China & higher demand for Vanadium redox batteries.
gerrit 69
2
Vervolg;

Titanium aluminides

AMG Titanium Alloys and Coatings is a world-leader in the production of advanced materials for the aerospace industry and the largest qualified provider of TiAl feedstock for all major commercial turbine engine manufacturers. They signed a contract with Pratt & Whitney 2 years ago. This industry is growing fast cause of the worldwide trend for CO2 reductions & growing population. This business comes with a high backlog & great visibility & will be growing fast in the next years. AMG installed extra capacity last year.

Financials

AMG has a very solid balance sheet, with $ 10,3M net debt or a 0,1x Net Debt/Ebitda. They recently renewed their credit facilities & now have up to $ 650M to spend! Which I don't think they will need any time soon, since they can finance most of their growth projects with their strong free cashflows.

There is a 'small' & manageable pension debt. I will not go into it any further, as most company's do have them with the current low interest rates.

AMG runs solid free cash flows. I exclude working capital movements & use the maintenance capex to calculate the FCF. In 2017 AMG produced up to $ 68M FCF, which was a great result. Definitely if we take in account that the maintenance capex was up $12M (after few years in austerity mode from '13 to '15) from their expected LT maintenance capex. So with a normalized Mcapex that could've been $ 80M! In 2016 FCF was $ 47,1M. But that year there was a one of payment of $ 23M for their pension scheme. So without that payment, FCF would've been $70M. Just to give an idea what kind of cashflows we can expect from their current business & to prove that they can finance most of their projects with their cash flows.

So that looks very healthy!

Investment Thesis

Last year AMG set some long term goals (AMG expected EBITDA to exceed $200 million within 5 years), and they recently adjusted their forecast already, since it was too conservative! They now expect to achieve those goals in 2020. During the latest conference call, the CEO Heinz Schimmelbush stated that there was even some upside to that. & even now I think the MGMT is still too conservative (and I think analysts do think the same)...

Ebitda was $ 125,5M in 2017, so you would think it's impossible to get to that $200M level? oh... You forgot about the expansions in Tantalum, lithium & Vanadium??

180k ton spodumene... If we take in consideration Morgan Stanley's bearish thoughts on the Lithium market & we forecast a LT spodumene price of 550$/ton. The operating costs were 134$/ton, if we take transportation & some maintenance capex in consideration, 200$/ton seems to be fair. So 550-200 gives you an Ebitda margin of 350$/ton. That would account for an Ebitda of $ 63M.

ING expects the 30% expansion in Vanadium recycling to deliver an extra $12,5M (normalized prices) & an extra $27,5M (@ +- 27$/lb), We remain conservative & use $ 12,5M in our calculations.

I expect the extra 300.000 lb Tantalum to bring in an extra $15M Ebitda at current prices, but again lets stay conservative & account $ 10M.

So if we take 2017 as a base year; Ebitda was $ 125,5M & we account no further growth in those businesses. Then we add up the expansions/new businesses below;

Spodumene = $ 63M

FeV = $ 12,5M

Ta= $ 10M

total Ebitda 2020 => $ 211M

So even if Morgan Stanley is right about future lithium prices, AMG will seem to succeed!

Enough with Ebitda... I rather use 'free cash flows' to value a company; Let's try to figure out what Cashflows AMG can produce in 2019 & 2020.

If we go back to the cashflows above we set $ 80M as a base case for AMG's current business(we take into account the 'normalized maintenance capex' for 2017). This is a conservative number as current pricing is significantly better than in 2017.

so first we gonna do some math. AMG's LT contract has a price of over 800 $/ton. we gonna use that for the first 90k spodumene & than we will be a bit more conservative for the 2nd 90k @ 650$/ton. We account an all-in operating cost of 200$/ton & we account a tax rate of 30% on Ebitda. For FeV & Ta we assume a FCF to Ebitda conversion rate of 65%.

- 2018; base case +10M (high FeV prices) + 35k spodumene @850$/ton

=> 80 +10 + 16 = $ 106M

- 2019; base case + 90k spodumene => 80 + 38 = $ 118M

- 2020; base case + 90k + 90k + 30% extra FeV + 300k lb Tantalum

=> 80 + 38 + 28 + 8 + 6 = $ 160,5M

Current market price of AMG is € 1113M (current share price = € 35,1 & 31,7M diluted shares). €/$ = 1,23 ; so market price in US dollar would be $ 1369M.

so if we take that into account we can calculate forward FCF yields;

2018; 7,74%

2019: 8,62%

2020; 11,7%

Conclusion

Based on these figures AMG looks very appealing to me. Even when we use these conservative numbers & it looks like all 5 covering analysts do agree, with price targets in the range of €50 to €55 an a buy rating.

AMG lost almost 30% since it's year high (€47,2), but the business got even more profitable since then... Quickly rising Vanadium prices & better pricing in Tantalum & Silicon should significantly raise profitabillity in 2018. So prices went down on sentiment? But as we all know; in the long run the market is a weighing machine!

a (forward 2020) 11,7% yield is hard to find these days! If you know any, let me know ;)

And there's even more upside if AMG's manages to go further downstream to LCE production. & that's what they're planning to do...

Disclosure: I am/we are long AMVMF.

Additional disclosure: I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice. This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

**************
Fijne Paasdagen iedereen.
Topperke
1
De inhoud van jouw bericht is sterk Umi.
De verwoording is inderdaad niet altijd zo sterk.
Waar je steeds rekening mee moet houden als je een synthese schrijft is dat je nooit 'ik' of 'wij' moet gebruiken. Dat doet het onprofessioneel overkomen.
Vb1: If we take in consideration Morgan Stanley's bearish thoughts on the Lithium market & we forecast a LT spodumene price of 550$/ton.
Taking in consideration Morgan Stanley's bearish thoughts on the Lithium market and forecasting a LT spodumene price of 550$/ton
Vb2: They recently renewed their credit facilities & now have up to $ 650M to spend. Which I don't think they will need any time soon, since they can finance most of their growth projects with their strong free cashflows.
They recently renewed their credit facilities & now have up to $ 650M to spend. AMG can finance most of its growth projects with its strong free cashflow. Hence they will not need this money soon.

Veel linking words gebruiken en geen smileys gebruiken, zou het artikel nog een stuk professioneler doen lijken.
Grote Zwarte Vogel
1
Mooi Umi!
Misschien zou je in je blog ook iets meer kunnen vermelden van AMG GfE. Volgens mij zijn ze de leverancier van een aantal Vanadium producten die gebruikte worden om de emissies terug te dringen (mooi he, leveren en dan later terughalen voor recycling tegen lagere kosten dan delving. Dat loopt met oplopende prijzen ook nog eens op) Daarnaast is AMG GfE de leverancier voor het vanadium in redox batteries (een leverantie voor Zuid Duits windpark werd expliciet genoemd in het annual report, maar ik heb nog steeds geen details kunnen vinden helaas).

www.gfe.com/en/product-range/vanadium...



Daarnaast wil ik je vragen om AUB een nieuw topic voor april aan te maken waarin je de highlights van jouw blog ook verwerkt. Het liefst ook in het Engels! Zou je dat willen doen?? Heel veel AB's zullen je ten deel vallen ;)
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