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Mooi instap moment Dendreon

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  1. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 10:33
    quote:

    billyboypaars schreef:

    Bravo aan de mensen die dit aandeel in hun portefeuille hadden,is zo moeilijk een heel goed biobedrijf op de kop te tikken,geluk moet je hebben
    Goedemorgen op deze zonnige dag. Wederom heerlijk geslapen (zonder Prozac!!!).

    De zondagoverweging.

    De enige manier om een goed aandeel te vinden is FA (Fundamentele Analyse).
    Op dit forum en op Yahoo zijn de laatste jaren honderden bedrijven langsgekomen. Ik ben dus elke avond zeker en uur bezig met het nazoeken via Yahoo, Google en Pubmed van hun producten en hun combinatie orginaliteit/degelijkheid. Enige medische kennis is dan wel handig.
    Als je tot een bedrijf beslist, dan is het een zaak van lange adem en je niet laten afleiden door bashers, hetgeen niet zo moeilijk is, omdat je zelf de officiele documenten gelezen hebt.

    Maar je zit er dus ook wel eens naast.
    Echt naast is bv. Genta.

    Niet naast maar wel slechte koers is bv Insmed, Gtcb, Calypte. Die aandelen houd ik dus gewoon.

    Niet naast, maar vervelend aandeel (wel goed product) Amilyn: een puur TA gestuurd tradersaandeel. Daar heb ik dus afscheid van genomen.

    Tenslotte, na wat omzwervingen (TMTA. Finisar) houd ik me het laatste jaar alleen nog maar bezig met Biotech.
    Wat betreft DNDN, ik heb nu reeds de op technisch gebied twee potentiele opvolgers van DNDN in portefeuille: BIOM en ENMD, beide 10K, maar BIOM zal ik snel uitbreiden.

    Maar om zaken in perspectief te houden: vanwege de kleine onderzoeksgroepen had Provenge ook afgekeurd kunnen worden!!!!!!

    You win some, you lose some!
    Maar dat is beter te "voorspellen" als je je er in verdiept hebt.
    Bottumline hierbij: het gaat nooit over de korte termijn koersontwikkeling, maar altijd over de potentie in relatie met concurrenten en de potentiele grootte van de te behandelen patientengroep

    Psycho
  2. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 11:17
    Dear Psycho
    Op de FDA Rec voor DNDN is Medarex (MEDX) met 12.6 % gestegen. Bij BIOM zie je dan in de loop van de dag de koers terugzakken, bij MEDX zie je dat na een dipje (tegen luchtijd) de koers tegen slot weer mooi Up gaat. En in laatste 10'mooie stijging met 800 k omzet.

    Kortom, de winstnemers zijn er grotendeels uit. Daarom dan maandag wellicht verdere koersstijging voor MEDX.
    Uiteraard: Mann kann nie wissen

    Zie verder het Medarex draadje - en chart.
    DYODD
  3. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 12:48
    Van de thread: wie is de opvolger van DNDN qua doorbraak op de markt:

    messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28...

    Ik heb volgende post even overgenomen en verkleind:
    tinyurl.com/2betzq
    Je kan dan direct doorklikken naar de betreffende Yahoo pagina van het bedrijf.

    Hier staan een dertigtal potentials.

    Komende weken ga ik ze bestuderen.
    En wie ook wil, welkom.

    Psycho

    Ik maak er wel even een nieuw draadje van, anders zijn we hem zo kwijt.
  4. ludwig mack 1 april 2007 14:15
    doordat de verwachting hoog was en de uitslag voor beurs kwam, steeg vrijdag voor beurs de koers enorm.
    had je daaraan al kunnen zien dat de koers meteen daarna weer zou gaan dalen, niet enorm, maar toch behoorlijk ?
    als leerproces wellicht leerzaam ...., of kun je daar niets uit afleiden ? is deze koersstijging als case uniek ?
    gr
  5. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 15:38
    quote:

    ludwig mack schreef:

    doordat de verwachting hoog was en de uitslag voor beurs kwam, steeg vrijdag voor beurs de koers enorm.
    had je daaraan al kunnen zien dat de koers meteen daarna weer zou gaan dalen, niet enorm, maar toch behoorlijk ?
    als leerproces wellicht leerzaam ...., of kun je daar niets uit afleiden ? is deze koersstijging als case uniek ?
    gr
    Ludwig, hiebij een verzameling interpretaties en samenzweringstheorieen over het koersverloop van vrijdag.

    messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28...

    messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28...

    Meer dan ik kan bedenken. Take your pick!!!

    Psycho
  6. aossa 1 april 2007 15:42
    quote:

    ludwig mack schreef:

    doordat de verwachting hoog was en de uitslag voor beurs kwam, steeg vrijdag voor beurs de koers enorm.
    had je daaraan al kunnen zien dat de koers meteen daarna weer zou gaan dalen, niet enorm, maar toch behoorlijk ?
    als leerproces wellicht leerzaam ...., of kun je daar niets uit afleiden ? is deze koersstijging als case uniek ?
    Totdat het aandeel DNDN stabiele winst gaat vertonen zal je nog veel swing in de koers zien.
    Vergeet niet dat 30% geshort is en shorts niet graag op de blaren gaan zitten maw ze zullen alle mogelijke registers opentrekken tussen nu en 15 mei om de koers van het aandeel lager te krijgen. Of ze het gaat lukken? Wait&See!

    Het is nu zenuwachtig afwachten op het definitief oordeel van het FDA en hoe de verdere financiering gaat opgelost worden (extra emissie, partner, overname ... (?)
  7. ludwig mack 1 april 2007 16:13
    valt me op dat er niet gesproken wordt over toekomstige winsten etc en toekomstige k/w verhoudinghen, wel over shorters: daarmee rekening houdend was het wellicht duidelijk dat 18 dollar bij opening te gek voor woorden was en dat je dan had moeten verkopen; die zekerheid zou je dan moeten hebben, dat kan alleen als je lt-kennis hebt.
    maandag in de herhaling, denk ik niet !
    bekijk het met interesse: heb geen positie en zal ik ook niet (meer) nemen nu .

    groet en succes allen !
  8. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 16:44
    quote:

    aossa schreef:

    Het is nu zenuwachtig afwachten op het definitief oordeel van het FDA en hoe de verdere financiering gaat opgelost worden (extra emissie, partner, overname ... (?)
    Hi Aossa, ik heb begrepen van het Crucell-forum, dat je van een inhoudelijke discussie houdt¿¿!

    Zenuwachtig? Mwahhh.......

    Kans op erkenning 15 mei: 75%-90% (ik denk 100% erkenning en dus marketing plus een fase IV wat betreft werking)
    Geld: tot Q4 2007
    Emissie: stel 4,5 milj aandelen a $12-$15 = verdunning van 5% vd aandelen. Pas de probleme toch!
    Partner: koers + $20 en geen emissie
    Overname: $35 - $65 na goedkeuring

    Zie jij bij mij zweet op het voorhoofd na een gemiddelde instap van $4,85?
    Jawel toch, maar door het zonnetje in mijn tuin!

    Groet,

    Psycho
  9. aossa 1 april 2007 17:15
    quote:

    psycho-pharma schreef:

    [quote=aossa]
    Het is nu zenuwachtig afwachten op het definitief oordeel van het FDA en hoe de verdere financiering gaat opgelost worden (extra emissie, partner, overname ... (?)
    [/quote]

    Hi Aossa, ik heb begrepen van het Crucell-forum, dat je van een inhoudelijke discussie houdt¿¿!

    Zenuwachtig? Mwahhh.......

    Kans op erkenning 15 mei: 75%-90% (ik denk 100% erkenning en dus marketing plus een fase IV wat betreft werking)
    Geld: tot Q4 2007
    Emissie: stel 4,5 milj aandelen a $12-$15 = verdunning van 5% vd aandelen. Pas de probleme toch!
    Partner: koers + $20 en geen emissie
    Overname: $35 - $65 na goedkeuring

    Zie jij bij mij zweet op het voorhoofd na een gemiddelde instap van $4,85?
    Jawel toch, maar door het zonnetje in mijn tuin!
    Geen haar op mijn bijna kale hoofd die er aan dacht jou nerveus te zien, toch niet wanneer je geregeld je pilletjes neemt ;-)

    Mijn opmerking doelde op de markt, die gaat wat op en neer swingen zolang de goedkeuring niet definitief is en de financiering van de toekomst nog niet rond is. Go with the flow ...
  10. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 18:21
    Bijgaande stukje over hoe verder met zou kunnen gaan met dndn heb ik geleend van een meneer op IV die doorgaans er vrijwel nooit naast heeft gezeten.

    Quote "
    So, the very conservative calculus of the situation looks like this from my perspective:

    * FDA Approval = removal of all question of Dendreon's viability = at least $24 to $28 price [my guess, late April 2007] Note, I suspect that this is the juncture where Dendreon will use their shelf filing to raise another $147 million +/-. The dilution will be minimal at those levels, say, adding another 5.5 million shares getting us up to about 88 million total. Rough math then indicates that Dendreon has a total market cap of $2.3 billion. And of the $26 price per share projection, something like $2.90/share will be cash. Zero debt.

    * FDA Approval = ROW partnership (including capital) = $30 to $34 share price. [my guess, before the AUA Meeting (May 19th to the 22nd). I figure they take down another $200 million in capital from the partner in exchange for say, what equates to 6.2 million shares. Now they have 94 million shares outstanding, a market cap of something like $3.0 billion, cash on the order of $450 million and per share cash on the order of $5.00. As my Aussie friend would say, "no worries."

    * New Capital infusion (shelf filing plus partnership funding)+ momentum of previous events triggers restarting clinical trials for other disease states = $34 to $38 a share (just on market psychology alone.) [my guess is no later than say, Fall of 2007 for an announcement like this.]

    * Short covering: any shorts that are still remaining after such a series of events either need to be sedated or will have set themselves ablaze and jumped from a high floor office building. Maybe both. Either way, I figure very conservatively that along the way, short covering combined with all the unwinding of options adds another $4 to $6 to the price giving us a Fall 2007 target of $38 to $44 a share.

    Bear in mind, it kills me to suggest a price so conservative because my more sensible math indicates a figure more on the order of $58 to $63 a share. And by the way, this makes a lot of short hand math sense as well since a number of analysts have suggested that domestic sales alone for Provenge would conservatively equate to a $27 price target. For simplicity sake, if you say ROW more or less equals US valuation, you're already at $54 a share. Again, that's Provenge alone; on label not including off label (inevitable in my view). Add in something for market psychology on the prospect of other applications potentially down the line for breast, colon, lung...whatever, a few brokerage recommendations, a major pharma partner or two and why wouldn't you get to a $5 billion+ market cap (heck, they're already at $1 billion.) And FYI, a $5 billion market cap would likely equate to on the order of $53 a share.

    But none of that math --- which can be argued +/- maybe 20% one way or another --- matters. Nor does the order of events. So long as FDA (PDUFA) signs off and has no onerous labeling restrictions, the dominos start to tumble over in some way. I figure their biggest challenge will be to justify not selling out in toto to one of the large Pharmas. But Gold has come too far to sell out on the cheap (if at all). But one thing is for sure; Gold will definitely put a few more pieces of the puzzle together so that he can gather momentum such that if there is a move to sell the entire company, that the price well above $60 can be validated externally through a third party fairness opinion.

    Again: Warren Buffet says: if you have an interest in a company that has a positive development you do not sell it, you add to your position. Which is just what I'm going to do.

    As always, could be wrong.
  11. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 20:35
    Nog nooit zoveel post gezien op forum's in the US.

    Hier een stukje van Biohealthinvestor.

    by Andrew Vaino
    Vaino's Biotech Corner

    I really can’t think of anything to say about Dendreon (DNDN), the company I wrote about last week. Moves like this make investing in biotech such fun!

    Dendreon’s drug Provenge went before an FDA advisory panel on Thursday. These panels provide guidance that the FDA considers in deciding whether or not to give the drug final approval. The date of final approval has been set as May 15.

    In anticipation of wild trading in the stock on Thursday, trading of DNDN on the NASDAQ was halted. My recommendation of last week, which was highly speculative, was a bull spread created by buying Jan 08 2.5 calls and selling the 7.5 calls. As I mentioned, I was mildly bullish on this stock and the bull spread, I thought, was a prudent play.

    Dendreon had been beaten down in the past year based on Phase 3 clinical data of its drug Provenge (to treat hormone refractory prostate cancer) that did not demonstrate any benefit measured by time to progression of the disease. Average survival time of patients on Provenge, however, was increased by 3-5 months. As well, there were some potential concerns over the safety of the drug: a small number of adverse cardiovascular events occurred.

    In the end, the FDA panel voted unanimously that Provenge was safe, and found by a vote of 13-4 that it was effective. This was good news for DNDN investors. The stock was trading as high as $18 this morning, a staggering increase of 344% over Wednesday’s close of $5.22. Trading volume was also off the chart, with nearly 75% of the entire float having changed hands by noon. The stock closed at $12.93 on a volume of 92M.

    Now, in reaching its final verdict the FDA usually follows the recommendations of the advisory panel, but not always. There are certainly a lot of remaining questions on Provenge, which will provide another round of fun as the May 15 decision date approaches.

    The next few days should be interesting for Dendreon. DNDN has a float of 81.5M shares, of which 26.4M were held short as of March 2007 (according to Nasdaqtrader.com, Yahoo finance shows 20.3M shares short). So, a lot of people were betting against this stock and, it turns out, they bet wrong. These investors, I assume, will be looking to cover over the next few days. My guess is this stock will trend up for the next few days as investors jump in and shorts try to jump out.

    biohealthinvestor.com/2007/04/right-o...

    Pasam
  12. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 22:07
    www.findarticles.com/p/articles/m...

    Here the advisory panel said "no" (based on efficacy) and FDA approved Gemzar made by Eli Lily, anyway. The decision was based on ovarian cancer progression-free survival. They approved it even though it hadn't been shown to increase overall survival and even though the advisory panel recommended rejection.

    The only other incidences of the FDA going against the advisory panel I could find were for silicone breast implants and OTC matters including birth control, highly political hot potatoes.

    I couldn't find any case where an advisory panel said "safe and effective" about a cancer drug and the FDA said no. I'd be interested if anyone knows of such a case.

    This is a novel therapy, if it works (and the Advisory panel thinks it does!) it will change the field of oncology in dramatic ways. All of us should be interested! If DNDN doesn't get a green light their pipeline will take many more years to develop and many more people will die.

    Why would, and how could, the FDA reject this? It is safe, and there is substantial evidence of efficacy. Where is the downside? The Commissioner of the FDA is a cancer survivor and researcher, not a day trader or hedgie. www.fda.gov/oc/voneschenbach/bio....
  13. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 22:14
    quote:

    rac69 schreef:

    ik denk dat het leuke week gaat worden met dndn.
    probeer de dips te kopen
    gaat nog stuk hoger..
    en shortie wil hem mss nog proberen te drukken ivm erg veel april calls naked verkocht
    maar denk niet dat shortie wint

    ;o)
  14. [verwijderd] 1 april 2007 22:34
    By: trdrpez23 Send PM Profile Ignore Recommend Add To Favorites
    Posted as a reply to msg 61751 by cbg3618

    Re: An arbs forward view on Dendreon...../cbg
    I think you are underestimating the options effect on fridays' trading. There was an enormous ammount of profit taking in the options, as those with long call positons sold out alot. I know I had to sell large blocks of stock to offset all the calls I was buying. The april and may 2,5, and 7 calls have such a high delta, the mm's hedge for these were very heavy levels of stock selling.

    Now the fun part. To offset the call purchase, stock sale trades, a huge number of calls are being exercised. As I am no longer a professional mm, I had to do it friday, or I could not keep trading. The real problem for the shorts is the april 5 calls. They sold these to death, to the tune of some 80,000 contracts. I suspect a big number of these will be exercised now, as the downside risk is gone for them. Even if by some disaster the FDA delayed or turned down the BLA, it would not happen until after april goes off the board.

    I think monday is going to be one hell of a fight. We should get some good buying from all those who knew nothing of the DNDN story until this weekend, and likely some funds, versus those still short trying to calm it down to try and begin covering. I think they are still much stronger than most realize. It looks like a probable higher opening, I think $15 is likely very early, then what happens? If the shorts are still willing to play hardball, it could then settle lower on the day. But if any of the shorts head for the door, we could see $20 in a hurry. Going to be very interesting, to say the least.

    Nice call on Friday. Spot on.


  15. spyfly 2 april 2007 13:38
    Hij gaat nu al los voorbeurs...beetje op en neer rond de 13. Tjonge jonge...mooi aandeel afgelopen vrijdag!
  16. [verwijderd] 2 april 2007 14:29
    quote:

    spyfly schreef:

    Hij gaat nu al los voorbeurs...beetje op en neer rond de 13. Tjonge jonge...mooi aandeel afgelopen vrijdag!
    500k omzet 13.75
  17. [verwijderd] 2 april 2007 14:36
    Plugplug:

    BusinessWeek Online
    A Dramatic Day for Dendreon
    Monday April 2, 8:08 am ET

    Dendreon's (NasdaqGM:DNDN - News) stock price surged nearly 150% on Mar. 30 after news that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory committee vouched for the company's Provenge compound - even though the prostate cancer treatment may not kill tumors. Studies suggest, however, that the drug extends peoples' lives.

    The panel of outside experts voted 17 to 0 in favor of Provenge's safety and 13 to 4 on its efficacy. Now Dendreon expects an FDA decision on Provenge by May 15, 2007. "If approved, Provenge could become a breakthrough treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer who currently have few treatment options," Dendreon CEO Mitchell H. Gold, M.D. said in a press release Mar. 29. After the news Dendreon's stock soared 148% to $12.93 per share on the Nasdaq March 30.

    Provenge is designed to stimulate a patient's immune system against prostate cancer. Although researchers failed in their efforts to prove that the treatment can slow cancer, Dendreon had announced in February, 2005, that a four-month study of 127 men showed patients on Provenge had a 4.5 month improvement in their median survival and a greater than 3-fold increase in survival at 36 months when compared to patients on a placebo.

    Questions were raised at the panel meeting about problems such as the small number of patients involved in the trial, according to Needham & Co. Several committee members, including Maha Hussain, M.D., Professor of Medicine and Urology at the University of Michigan, pointed out that a larger trial with 500 to 700 patients is needed to more adequately address the efficacy of Provenge. But panel members in large part agreed that Provenge is safe and relatively well tolerated compared to chemotherapy treatments, with the most common side effects including things like chills, fever, fatigue, and nausea. "Although the agency is not bound to follow the panel's recommendation, we believe that it is increasingly likely that the drug will be approved by the FDA," Needham analyst Mark Monane said in a research note.

    While the FDA grapples with whether it can safely make the drug available yet, men suffering from prostate cancer are watching the clock tick. Around 30,000 men die from prostate cancer each year, making it the second largest cancer killer for men after lung cancer. But some common methods to help such patients have raised eyebrows during recent years. The PSA test, for example, is wildly inaccurate -- it carries a 75% false-positive rating -- and there's little or no evidence that widespread use correlates with lower mortality rates (see BusinessWeek.com, 6/20/04, "Bad Marks for a Prostate Cancer Test").

    "We think there's nothing better than survival -- and the patients made that clear in the meeting that this is all they care about is living longer and better lives," said Monique Greer, senior director of corporate communications at Dendreon.

    P.
  18. spyfly 2 april 2007 14:40
    quote:

    psycho-pharma schreef:

    Plugplug:

    BusinessWeek Online
    A Dramatic Day for Dendreon
    Monday April 2, 8:08 am ET

    Dendreon's (NasdaqGM:DNDN - News) stock price surged nearly 150% on Mar. 30 after news that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory committee vouched for the company's Provenge compound - even though the prostate cancer treatment may not kill tumors. Studies suggest, however, that the drug extends peoples' lives.

    The panel of outside experts voted 17 to 0 in favor of Provenge's safety and 13 to 4 on its efficacy. Now Dendreon expects an FDA decision on Provenge by May 15, 2007. "If approved, Provenge could become a breakthrough treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer who currently have few treatment options," Dendreon CEO Mitchell H. Gold, M.D. said in a press release Mar. 29. After the news Dendreon's stock soared 148% to $12.93 per share on the Nasdaq March 30.

    Provenge is designed to stimulate a patient's immune system against prostate cancer. Although researchers failed in their efforts to prove that the treatment can slow cancer, Dendreon had announced in February, 2005, that a four-month study of 127 men showed patients on Provenge had a 4.5 month improvement in their median survival and a greater than 3-fold increase in survival at 36 months when compared to patients on a placebo.

    Questions were raised at the panel meeting about problems such as the small number of patients involved in the trial, according to Needham & Co. Several committee members, including Maha Hussain, M.D., Professor of Medicine and Urology at the University of Michigan, pointed out that a larger trial with 500 to 700 patients is needed to more adequately address the efficacy of Provenge. But panel members in large part agreed that Provenge is safe and relatively well tolerated compared to chemotherapy treatments, with the most common side effects including things like chills, fever, fatigue, and nausea. "Although the agency is not bound to follow the panel's recommendation, we believe that it is increasingly likely that the drug will be approved by the FDA," Needham analyst Mark Monane said in a research note.

    While the FDA grapples with whether it can safely make the drug available yet, men suffering from prostate cancer are watching the clock tick. Around 30,000 men die from prostate cancer each year, making it the second largest cancer killer for men after lung cancer. But some common methods to help such patients have raised eyebrows during recent years. The PSA test, for example, is wildly inaccurate -- it carries a 75% false-positive rating -- and there's little or no evidence that widespread use correlates with lower mortality rates (see BusinessWeek.com, 6/20/04, "Bad Marks for a Prostate Cancer Test").

    "We think there's nothing better than survival -- and the patients made that clear in the meeting that this is all they care about is living longer and better lives," said Monique Greer, senior director of corporate communications at Dendreon.

    P.
    Ik snap de titel van het bericht niet zo...of lees ik nu echt ergens overheen (A Dramatic Day for Dendreon)
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