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In gold we trust

1. [verwijderd] 16 november 2009 22:19

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   GOLD $1138.50 +21.80
   
   Today gold hits all-time new highs as we hit numbers
   some analysts had been hoping for by Christmas. Noth-
   ing ever happens on time I guess, but one gold bug who
   has been predicting that market pretty well has been Bob
   Hoye of Institutional Advisors and he wrote an interesting
   comment on November 14th.
   Hoye and Ross Clark write, “gold is generating it’s first
   daily upside exhaustion alert since January 2008.” They
   add, “This alert occurs when a market exhibits urgency on
   the part of investors to buy. Major tops have been seen in
   gold when weekly and monthly alerts are generated. Daily
   signals, such as this, tend to occur around minor highs
   and lead to corrections back to test the most recent break-
   out or a pause until the 20-day moving average catches up
   to the price.”
   Hoye then writes, “In this case, $1070 appears to be a
   reasonable targeted support.”
   We all know that nothing goes straight up or for that
   matter, straight down, so it will be interesting to see just
   how accurate Hoye is with this prediction.
   
   _________________
   If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
   
   
2. [verwijderd] 16 november 2009 22:30

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   Paar maanden al Gung Ho.
   
   Wat bezielt die man?
   
   Verdient-ie er aan?
   
   Ik zou nooit in goud gaan.
   
   Bij een crash, crasht goud
   
   zelfs méér!
3. [verwijderd] 17 november 2009 07:19

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   quote:

   Andy schreef:

   Paar maanden al Gung Ho.
   
   Wat bezielt die man?
   
   Verdient-ie er aan?
   
   

   Howdy, zou 't familie zijn?
   
   Sarah Palin's facebook alias is GUN HO
   
   >--:-)-->
4. [verwijderd] 17 november 2009 08:47

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   Het interessante zit 'm natuurlijk in het verschil tussen $ en €. Wat doen de Amerikanen anders dan de Europeanen...hoe ziet de goudprijs in Euro's eruit...maar ouwehoer gerust door over goldismoney.com en L.vonMises en andere bullshit hoor...
   
   Voor zover ik weet ziet de balans van de ECB er net zo verrot uit als die van de FED momenteel, dus daar kan het niet aan liggen op het eerste gezicht.
5. [verwijderd] 23 november 2009 10:11

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   Gold worry mounting, but some bulls charging on
   Commentary: Some gold bugs aren't worried about the metal's rapid bid-up
   
   NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold's surge has made some observers nervous, but not all.
   
   Gold was up every day last week. Spot gold finished at $1150.90, up for the third week in a row.
   
   Mark Hulbert is worried about the 68% reading on his Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by The Hulbert Financial Digest. It came in unchanged at 68% on Friday evening, for the ninth day running. ( See Mark Hulbert's Nov. 20 column.)
   
   And long-time gold bug Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell cautioned: "I'd hold off on buying more gold now. The reason I say that is the point & figure chart. ... Gold is rather 'stretched' at this point. ... If gold continues higher, that's fine with me, but I'd hesitate to buy it now. Gold is overbought, it's on a 'high pole,' and it appears overdue for a correction."
   
   Russell, of course, never trades gold -- he is either buying or not buying.
   
   But the chart-oriented Aden Forecast is not flinching. ( See Oct. 8 column.) Updating on Thursday, editors Mary Anne and Pamela Aden pointed to a "C rise" -- an intermediate, recurring rise -- on the chart.
   
   The Adens said: "Gold is soaring, hitting new record highs almost daily. This C rise is going strong. Our initial $1,200 target level for this year's rise has nearly been reached, but gold could go higher. ... Note that gold rose 56% and 58%, respectively, in the last two C rises. So far, gold has risen 32% in the current C rise. Plus, its leading indicator still has room to rise further before it reaches the 'too high' area. Since this rise is powerful, the gains this time around could be similar to those in 2006 and 2008. And if they are, gold could continue up to near the $1,350 level before this C rise is over."
   
   "We'll be watching closely, but for now, hold on to all of your metals-related investments," they said.
   
   Lately, of course, there has been a good deal of news about otherwise normal U.S. hedge-fund managers getting into gold, notably Wednesday's announcement of a Paulson & Co. gold fund. See full story on Paulson's gold-fund plan.
   
   Some long-time observers of gold think they already see signs of a new force in the market.
   
   As Le Metropole Café's Bill Murphy put it on Friday in his characteristically conspiratorial way: "The Gold Cartel's traders don't realize, or don't know how to handle, the 'new buyers.' In days of old, they would suck in the spec longs, getting shorter and shorter as the price went higher and higher. Then they would pull the plug by dumping physical gold into the market and bombing the derivatives paper market. Eventually fund longs would sell as the technicals turned bearish. The market would cascade down with a number of funds eventually going short. The Gold Cartel would cover and up we would go again."
   
   "This time the buyers are the biggest of money ... countries, largest hedge funds, etc. They are competing against each other and want to buy more gold on any dips the Gold Cartel hands to them. It shows in the price action."
   
   Le Metropole Café's trademark monitoring of gold's main physical markets has yet to find evidence those buyers have pulled out. (See Web site.)
   
   A Sunday posting on the site concludes: "Given the time of the year, the Aden sisters may well be right."
   _________________
   If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
   
   
6. [verwijderd] 24 november 2009 08:45

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   Quotable
   “[T]he sanguine outlook embedded in US bond markets creates risks for central banks
   wishing to tighten policy ahead of the major central banks. Synchronised policy easing
   to fight off the Great Recession means that the world's central banks will also be
   tightening monetary policy in a cluster, much like cyclists in a peloton. The front riders in
   a peloton typically have more flexibility but also face stronger headwinds than the other
   riders, who are content to reduce their wind-drag by riding in the mass of the group.
   Early-hiking central banks, similarly, face the dual headwinds of currency appreciation
   and unresponsive asset markets since the latter have strong ties to their counterparts in
   the major economies. Low bond yields in the US and other major economies tend to put
   downward pressure on bond yields elsewhere in the world. Early-hiking central banks
   like the BoI, the RBA and the Norges Bank, and later the RBI and the BoK, will likely find
   it difficult to raise long-term interest rates while bond yields in the major economics are
   priced for perfection...for now!”
   
   Manoj Pradhan, Morgan Stanley
   
   FX Trading – Regulatory Bank Cure – A Massive Unintended Fear Move to Gold?
   John Ross wrote in a recent Currency Currents he didn’t want to rip-off the Milk Board
   advertising campaign by asking if you’ve “Got Gold.” But it appears more and more
   have “Got Gold.” Yet another new high was chalked up this morning in white-hot yellow
   metal. This comes at a very bad time for me and may reflect a lot deeper systemic
   concerns than we now realize.
   
   Long-timer readers have heard the story of my father in law, whom I love dearly (most
   of the time). My father-in-law (MFL) has held gold and silver for a long-time, as long as I
   have been dating his best asset—that is going on 34-years now. MFL has been known to
   hide buckets of coins and said precious metals in his walls at times, which should give
   you an idea of just how much of a bug he is. MFL will be attending the Crooks
   Thanksgiving feast on Thursday, thus my problem now that gold has surged again into
   the ozone (as I remember many times I shared the view with MFL that gold would never
   get above $1,000 again). Thursday will be a day of Turkey, football games, and “I told
   you so” gold investing gloating—rightfully so I guess. But, I can take solace anyway, as
   he loves his daughter, and gold is doing good things for his estate. 
   
   That long winded entry was an attempt to make this point: I think the gold move now
   represents much more than a US dollar fear move. As we’ve pointed out before, gold in
   a massive new high, and yet the US dollar index has still not breached its old low
   (presently the $ index is trading about 7% above its March 2008 low). The move in gold
   appears to be more systemic, especially when you factor in the potential for disruption
   in the things we used to consider risk-free—government bonds.
   
   In a great piece from Financial Times writer and assistant editor Gillian Tett, “Could
   sovereign debt be the new subprime?” she writes [our emphasis]:
   
   “[A]s policymakers rush to implement reforms in response to one financial
   calamity, they are apt to create distortions that pave the way for the next
   disaster. Just such an unintended consequence could now be festering in the
   banking sector, as its balance sheets are increasingly stuffed with government
   bonds.
   
   “These days, there is a near-unanimous belief among western regulators that
   one way to prevent a repeat of the 2007-08 crisis is to stop banks taking crazy
   risks with subprime mortgage bonds or complex instruments such as
   collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). Instead, banks are being urged to hold a
   higher proportion of their assets in the form of ‘safe’ instruments, most notably
   sovereign or quasi-sovereign debt. G20 regulators are holding regular meetings
   in Basel to draw up rules on how banks should do this, as part of a wider reform
   of financial regulation.
   
   “In theory, that move sounds very sensible. One reason why large banks
   crumbled last year was that many were carrying vast quantities of highly rated
   CDOs and other toxic paper. These not only lost their value during the crisis, but
   also became impossible to trade, creating a liquidity shock for the banks.
   
   “Government bonds, by contrast, remained liquid during the recent crisis (and
   have been so in the past few decades). So it appears appealing to hold more of
   them, particularly given that sovereign debt is also widely presumed to be ultra
   safe; so safe that the yield on government bonds is known as the ‘risk-free rate’.
   
   “But could this flight to the ‘safety’ of government bonds in itself be creating
   subtle new dangers? Government debt, after all, has soared to levels not seen in
   peacetime for centuries, if ever, in many countries, not least the US and UK.
   Fiscal deficits are swelling across the western world. And the level of political
   commitment to curbing those deficits remains uncertain – not least because with
   yields currently so low there is less pressure on politicians to push through
   reform.
   
   In other words, the bank regulatory cure which governments are so proud of is part
   and parcel to the massive global liquidity bubble being created. Gee, unintended
   consequences flowing from governments who typically lag the real world by a massive
   degree? Now that’s just shocking!!
   
   Back to Gillian:
   
   “Finance ministries are hardly likely to complain about the banks’ investments.
   Major industrialised countries will need to sell more than $12,000bn worth of
   government bonds this year and next to fund their fiscal hole. This is a rise of
   at least a third, or $3,000bn, in just two years.”
   
   The government, thanks to its reform, has insured ready buyers for all its paper; this
   allows them to more easily paper-over the initial stimulus they created, with taxpayer
   money, which ended up to a large degree on the balance sheets of the same banks
   (thanks to the incentive of risk-free spread borrowing at zero and holding government
   paper at 3%) that will be buying more of the paper created to cover the holes created by
   the stimulus, which will be eventually plugged by more taxpayer money.
   
   Convoluted? It’s not hard to see why unintended consequences can flow from that
   sequence of blunders is it?
   
   Credit default swaps (yet another invention from our Wall Street Frankenstein builders)
   are reflecting growing concern among sovereign debt of core European countries—
   Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal (PIGS when put I the right order), add Ireland, Iceland,
   Eastern Europe, etc. Fitch has already warned the UK on debt and the possibility of a
   ratings downgrade. Japan now above 200% debt to GDP recently received a stern Fitch
   lecture. And of course, the risk-free or all standard risk-free credits, the US, can’t
   continue to skate by given their massive fiscal irresponsibility consistently flowing from
   its policies.
   
   Thus, if the risk-free rate, upon which a whole lot of financial theory and portfolio
   modeling is based, becomes in doubt, the game changes in a big way, and not a good
   way. A search for risk-free may come right back to the question: “Got gold.” I’m sure
   it’s a question I will get on Thanksgiving Day.
   
   If you don't trust GOLD,the on
7. [verwijderd] 26 november 2009 22:02

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   Gold (GOLDC : NYMEX : US$1187.00), Net Change: 21.20, % Change: 1.82% SPDR Gold ETF (GLD : NYSE : US$116.62), Net Change: 1.89, % Change: 1.65%, Volume: 24,552,533
   
   Less is not more, more is more. The Financial Chronicle, citing unnamed sources, is reporting that India is "open to buying" more gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Reserve Bank of India, which bought 200 tonnes of gold from IMF on November 3, may buy the IMF’s remaining 201.3 tonnes, and terms are now being negotiated, the Chronicle said. An IMF
   spokesperson said the gold sale process was still under way and "there is no fixed timetable for completing the sale". Its spokesperson further said that “the fund does not wish to comment on discussions with individual members." On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Russia's central bank bought 15.6 tonnes of gold in October, increasing its gold holdings by 2.6% to 606.5
   tonnes. The central bank went on to say that it will look to increase gold reserves this year to keep its investments diverse. As of November 1, gold made up 4.7% of Russia's total gold and foreign exchange reserves of $434.43 billion. Russia's central bank has been steadily increasing its gold holdings, at the beginning of 2009, the central bank held roughly 519.4 tonnes. Russia joins the likes of India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka as countries that recently added to their gold holdings. When the IMF sold 200 metric tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India a couple of weeks back, many speculated that China will grab the IMF's other 203 tonnes. Does China, the world's biggest gold producer, really have to go after IMF's gold? For China, who has almost
   $800 billion of U.S. Treasury debt in its portfolio, US$7 billion in gold sounds like a mere drop in the bucket. Could China buy the IMF's gold just to spur the game on? Notably, the IMF yesterday announced the sale of 10 tonnes of gold to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The sale was conducted on the basis of market prices prevailing on November 23, 2009 with proceeds equivalent to US$375 million.
   
   _________________
   If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
   
   
8. [verwijderd] 1 december 2009 09:24

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   Gold acquires new investment aura
   When HSBC closes its vaults to hundreds of American gold bugs (investors) next July, it will be shutting the door on one of the fastest growing trends in the investment community.
   By James Quinn, US Business Editor : 5:34PM GMT 29 Nov 2009
   
   Gold ingots of various weights,. Investors see it as a safe haven in unsettled times Photo: Julian Simmonds
   Although the British-based bank has decided to stop retail investors depositing the shiny stuff at its New York vaults in favour of storing gold for higher paying institutional customers, it has not stopped the rest of the world from clamouring to join the gold rush.
   From the Indian central bank - rumoured to be buying another 200 tonnes from the International Monetary Fund - to hedge fund manager John Paulson - in the process of setting up a new gold only fund - everyone is buying gold. Even Harrods is getting in on the act by selling gold bars. Changed days from the end of the last decade when the UK joined other parts of the world in ending the "gold standard".
   In spite of HSBC's actions, one of the fastest growing areas of gold investment is ordinary investors buying actual bars of gold. Data from the World Gold Council shows that the number of retail investors buying gold in its physical form – as opposed to investing in gold futures contracts or gold miners - rose by 11pc in the three months to September, compared to the previous three months.
   In monetary terms this was equivalent to $7bn (£4.25bn), some $5.7bn of which went on physical gold, in the form of bars and official coins, while the remaining $1.3bn was spent on exchange traded funds (ETFs), which invest in real gold and not futures or contracts.
   Although only a recent trend in the UK, retail investors' demand for the shimmering metal has become big business in the US, with a host of companies devoted to convincing would-be gold bugs to part with their money in return for a real piece of the action.
   One reason for this is the US Mint's sophisticated coin issuance programme, which produces a number of special coins purely for this purpose. The most popular of these is the American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin – the only bullion coin whose weight, content and purity is guaranteed by the US Treasury.
   The Eagle comes in four different weights, and four different face values. And although the one-ounce coin may have a face value of $50, it is worth its weight in gold, quite literally, recently trading on the website of Goldline International, one of many internet retailers, for $1,216.94. The fact that the market for the US's coins is among the most liquid in the world does not hurt either.
   In fact, so strong has buying been that the US Mint this week suspended sales of its American Eagle one ounce coins until early December, as demand has outstripped supply. The weight of gold coins sold by the US Mint far this year has exceeded the one million ounce mark, up 40pc year-on-year, at levels not seen since 1999.
   Such consumption has in part been fuelled by the recent surge in the price of gold, and the relative weakness of the dollar. Gold continues to hit new highs, touching $1,187 an ounce last week, having already risen 33pc year-to-date in dollar terms. But in reality, after stripping out inflation, current prices are only about half gold's earlier highs.
   That said, there is evidence that the momentum is continuing, with Gluskin Sheff's chief economist David Rosenberg pointing out that there are now "very deep pockets" underpinning demand for gold.
   The increasingly attractive metal is also on the up because it makes investors feel safe – in two ways. First, after two years of sharp share price falls and dollar weakness, gold appears to some to offer a safe haven.
   Mr Rosenberg points to market suggestions that Russia's central bank wants to add another 30 tonnes of gold to its cache by year-end, on top of the 15.5 tonnes it purchased in October.
   Such buying, by central banks, which largely abandoned the gold standard in the late 1990s and drove its price down to $250 an ounce in 1999, is a key driver. China and Sri Lanka are among the other Asian nations that have recently raised the amount of their total reserves they hold as gold.
   Second, after a financial crisis which has seen many lose their shirts, investors are drawn to gold because they can actually see and touch it.
   According to Bob Higgins, chief executive of First State Depository, a precious metals vault in Wilmington, Delaware, the number of first-time buyers wanting to store gold at his facility so far this year has been "off the charts".
   "We've reached a point in the economy, where people who have talked about putting there money into gold nearly every day of their lives have finally begun to invest in it."
   Higgins prides himself on his one-on-one service, and notes that a number of new customers have travelled to Delaware to look at the depository vaults, to make sure not only that they exist but that there is gold locked inside.
   The vaults – the exact location of which cannot be disclosed for security reasons – are insured for up to $400m, and covered by a sophisticated security system designed with the help of insurer Lloyd's of London and watched over by 36 cameras.
   Although a number of his customers are individuals – he is hoping to benefit from HSBC's New York vault closure decision - Higgins is also developing a growing business with the corporate middle-men who help private investors buy and store their gold. Ireland's GoldCore – a wealth manager which specialises in precious metal investing – notes on its websites that some of its clients have begun to use Higgins' US facility, for example.
   For a retired builder from just outside Chicago who stores his $50,000 or so of gold bars at a rival depository, it's all about the safety. "I can touch it, I can see it, lord, I can even smell it if I want to. You just don't get that sense of security gambling with shares," says John, who prefers not to disclose his surname.
   Now living off his savings, and with no real pension to speak of, those bars are part of his lifeline: "I don't want to get caught out like so many did. I can't afford to. I just want to know what's mine is mine."
   _________________
   If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
   
   
9. [verwijderd] 2 december 2009 09:13

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   Jim Rogers: Budget deficits pushing up gold prices
   By David Lew
   What is the real reason behind the historic rise in gold prices? Futures and spot prices of gold across global commodity bourses and bullion markets have been surging for the past few months. Gold price touched a high of $1195 per ounce in the last week of November.
   
   Bullion analysts have been maintaining that depreciating US dollar is one main reason for the big rise in gold prices. Now, global commodities investment guru Jim Rogers says budget deficits in many countries across the world are propping up gold prices.
   
   Is it true? Jim Rogers has forecast that gold prices would zoom to a record $2000 per ounce in the next decade, beginning next year. Rogers, who has been aggressively investing in agricultural commodities, especially in China, has also recently maintained that given a chance to invest in bullion, he would put his money in silver and palladium, and not in gold, as the yellow metal prices are on fire.
   
   But is budgetary deficits spurring gold, and bullion trade in into the high-price tag level?
   
   Here is what Jim Rogers told Business Week:
   
   “Gold’s recent price surge is thanks to budget deficits. “Deficits are going berserk nearly everywhere. Throughout history, printing money has led to weaker currencies and higher prices for real assets.”
   
   “here are many, many pessimists about the dollar, including me. So many pessimists that I suspect there's a rally coming.”
   
   “I have no idea why there should be, but things do usually rally when you have this many bears at the same time. I've actually accumulated a few more dollars.”
   
   There is sense in what Jim Rogers is saying. He should know, as some of his best known books like Adventure Capitalist, Investment Biker, A Bull in China, and Hot Commodities have been eye-opening to the world economy, commodities market and investment ideas.
   
   Budget deficits are ballooning in most of the countries across the world. Global leader United States is hard hit by budgetary deficits; so are countries like Britain, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa. In fact, the city state of Dubai, that has been proclaimed as the epicentre of modern development is under severe strain these days, thanks to a serious debt crisis.
   
   Dubai, one of the major gold trading centres in the world, along with Mumbai and Beijing, is today going through a major credit default fear. Many say gold price will boom or doom thanks to the credit bubble repercussions in Dubai.
   
   One best example for budget deficit is Britain. British government has been hit hard by budgetary deficits that the country’s finances are said to be in a tight spot.
   
   Read a recent Times Online report on Britain’s precarious economy:
   
   “Britain’s threadbare public finances were thrown back into the spotlight today as it was revealed the Government was forced to borrow £11.4 billion in October to meet its bills - the worst figure for the month since records began in 1946.
   
   Tax receipts collapsed by £4.1 billion compared with October 2008 while spending was £4.5 billion greater as the recession took its toll on corporate profits and consumer spending while welfare payments surged.
   
   Total public sector net debt grew to £829.7 billion, equivalent to 59.2 per cent of total national output, by the end of October. That compares to £695.1 billion and 48.6 per cent a year earlier.”
   
   It is unlikely that countries like Britain will be able to bring down the budgetary deficit in the near future. So will gold price continue to flourish to the record $2000 per ounce, as predicted by Jim Rogers? Let us wait and watch.
   
   David Lew is a bullion commentator with Commodity Online. You can contact him at info@commodityonline.com.
   
   _________________
   If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
   
   
10. [verwijderd] 2 december 2009 16:14

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    Gold (GOLDC : NYMEX : US$1200.20), Net Change: 17.90, % Change: 1.51% SPDR Gold ETF (GLD : NYSE : US$117.38), Net Change: 1.74, % Change: 1.50%, Volume: 27,624,607
    
    It's Goldberg, not Rosenberg. Bloomberg quoted Ji Xiaonan, the head of the supervisory committee at the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in China, in saying, the country should increase the amount of gold it holds in reserves to reduce potential losses from a depreciating dollar. Ji recommended that China increase its gold reserves to 6,000 tonnes within three-to-five years and possibly to 10,000 tonnes in eight to 10 years. David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist with Gluskin Sheff + Associates pondered this and said, "If China were to lift their gold reserves to 5,000 tonnes,
    which is equivalent to about two years of global production, that shift in demand would boost the gold price by $800/oz to around $2,000 ($1,978) based on our models. If China moves towards 10,000 tonnes, well, that would end up taking the gold
    price to $2,623/ounce if our calculations are in the ball-park." While still a self-described gold bull, Rosenberg does caution that, "we could get a meaningful gold correction at any time, and we are talking about a correction in what is still a secular bull market - the 200-day moving average is $970/oz, which means we could get as much as a 20% pullback and no fundamental trendline would be violated." According to Xinhua, China has increased its gold reserves by 76% to 1,054 tons since 2003.
    
    _________________
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
    
11. [verwijderd] 4 december 2009 08:55

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    Gold Price Hits Record as Gold Fever Grips Wall Street
    
    December 3rd, 2009 - 9:42 am | by GoldAlert
    Gold Price News
    
    Gold prices continued their vertical ascent as the price of gold hit a high of $1,226.50 before settling back near $1,215. Calls for higher gold prices are widespread as a mini-gold fever has broken out on Wall Street. After rising 13% last month, gold has began December with the same vigor as it did in November. Gold mining stocks have been the hottest sector in the marketplace with the Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF (GDX) up by 29.2% over the past five weeks. Bullish sentiment is near an extreme, with the Marketvane bullish consensus figure at 89% bulls.
    
    Long-time gold bulls have been re-iterating their calls for a much higher gold price in the future. Peter Schiff told CNBC yesterday that the gold price was headed to $5,000. Schiff exclaimed, “It might not hit $5,000 this year or next year, but it will eventually-maybe before Barack Obama leaves the White House.” Schiff went on to state that, “I don’t think there’s enough gold to meet the new demand that’s coming - because gold is money, it’s not just some other commodity.”
    
    Jim Rogers, in his recent interview with Businessweek told Maria Bartiromo that he expected gold to “be over a couple thousand dollars an ounce” and succinctly summed up why gold has been moving higher, “Deficits are going berserk nearly everywhere. Throughout history, printing money has led to weaker currencies and higher prices for real assets.”
    
    Societe Generale analyst Dylan Grice recently penned a research report outlining why the price of gold was actually very cheap near its current level. Grice’s paper concluded that, “One way to value gold, therefore, is to ask at what gold price the value of outstanding central bank paper would be completely backed by gold. The US owns nearly 263 million troy ounces of gold (the world’s biggest holder) while the Fed’s monetary base is $1.7 trillion. So the price of gold at which the US dollars would be fully gold-backed is currently around $6,300.”
    
    Amidst calls for $5,000 and $6,300 gold, there has been some talk of a gold bubble with a deputy governor at the People’s Bank of China being the latest to opine on the topic. Hu Xiaolian told a Hong Kong newspaper that “Gold prices are currently high and commodities markets should be careful of a potential asset bubble forming.” Federal Reserve officials did acknowledge that their zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing programs may fuel “excessive” speculation in and could potentially cause a rise in inflation expectations.
    
    What could derail the gold price? The most obvious answer is a U.S. dollar rally, one that feeds on itself and shakes out the late longs. The popularity of the dollar carry trade has grown and if the dollar begins to rally, then short covering in the greenback and liquidation in the assets purchased would likely cause a general sell-off in the markets. A rally in the U.S. dollar could be spurred by the Federal Reserve telegraphing a change in its monetary policy. There is growing speculation that the rise in the gold price is on the radar screens of Fed officials.
    
    Longtime market veteran Richard Russell opined on Tuesday, “The gold action is now persistent enough and impressive enough to worry the Fed. Therefore, I think we are near some kind of inflection point.” Russell speculated that the Fed may attempt to manipulate the price lower. Regardless of whether this comes to pass, the bottom line is that as the gold price rally intensifies, policymakers will be forced to pay increasing attention to it - and possibly to act.
    
    Initial jobless claims came in at -457,000 this morning, better than market expectations. If economic data continues to improve and stock markets around the globe keep rising at their current pace, Federal Reserve officials will be forced to either join their counterparts in Australia, who have begun to tighten monetary policy, or they will face a potential acceleration of the U.S. dollar’s decline - and risk a more parabolic rise in the gold price.
    _________________
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
    
12. [verwijderd] 9 december 2009 13:52

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    Gold's enemies multiplying
    Nouriel Roubini has joined the gold naysayers, but Alec Hogg reckons he'd better beware.
    Author: Alec Hogg
    Posted: Wednesday , 09 Dec 2009
    JOHANNESBURG -
    There's nothing like kicking a golden dog when it's down.
    Just as the metal's recent surge runs out of steam - temporarily perhaps - new voices are being added to the recently silenced crowd which never misses an opportunity of dissing the "barbarous relic". Among the e-mails being circulated by the anti-gold lobby is an interview in late October by Nouriel Roubini, or Dr Doom as he prefers to be called, who told Yahoo Finance you'll never find him among bullion's supporters.
    Roubini opined: "I don't believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there's slack in the labour markets with unemployment above 10% in all the advanced economies. So there's no inflation, and there's not going to be for the time being."
    To prove that there's always two sides to any argument, no lesser light than the world's greatest investor Warren Buffett takes the contrary approach. At his Berkshire Hathaway AGM in May, and a number of times since, Buffett has warned that the US government's money creating policies must lead to a resurgence in Public Enemy #1. As he put it in Omaha seven months ago: "You can bet on inflation...." But he looks for other assets - like US equities - rather than gold as a better hedge against the ravages of price increases.
    Continuing along his theme, Roubini added: "The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon, if you have another depression. But we've avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they're just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there's nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can't move up 20-30% unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don't see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon."
    Funny thing, there were plenty of Roubini-clones talking the same language around the turn of the century when the price was a quarter of its current level. Among them then treasurer and now UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown whose bright idea it was to dump more than half the Bank of England's gold (415t of 715t to be exact) in late 1999. The price was then around $280 an ounce. At current prices, the cost of Brown's decision to the British taxpayer is a staggering $11.4bn - that's $186 for every man, woman and child living on Europe's offshore island. Part of the reason why he's certain to be tossed out of office in the next general election. Which provides an appropriate warning to Roubini and his like: Beware of trying to predict the gold price. We South Africans learnt long ago it tends to do exactly the opposite of what you forecast.
    Write to Alec Hogg: alec@moneyweb.co.za or follow him on www.twitter.com/alechogg. Alec Hogg is Moneyweb's and Mineweb's founder and editor in chief.
    _________________
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
    
13. [verwijderd] 9 december 2009 14:18

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    hoe meer kopstukken tegen goud, des te meer/beter je in goud kan investeren.
    
    Goud is geen wondermiddel, maar geld wel...het komt uit het niets!
    De jeugd van tegenwoordig is zo slecht in rekenen geworden, dat ze geld niet eens zullen missen als rekeneenheid. Ze worden later gewoon per gram(of delen ervan) afgezet.
    
    
14. [verwijderd] 16 december 2009 09:23

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    CENTRAL BANK GOLD BUYING
    Gold's Old Enemies: Allies in 2010
    A number of the world's most prominent gold experts, including Sprott Asset Management's John Embry, are expecting central banks to play a very supportive role in underpinning the rise in the gold market in 2010
    Author: Marc Davis (BNWnews.ca)
    Posted: Tuesday , 15 Dec 2009
    VANCOUVER -
    Central banks - the long-time nemesis of the gold sector - are doing an about-face to become its biggest supporters. And this quantum shift promises to gather momentum in 2010 with the prospect of a new era of net buying continuing to fuel robust demand for bullion.
    So say several of the world's most prominent gold fund managers and investment industry gurus. They include John Embry, a renowned, long-time gold advocate and the chief investment strategist at Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management, which runs the Sprott Gold and Precious Metals Fund.
    "I think central banks will most certainly underpin the price of gold next year," Embry says.
    In fact, he believes the advent of net central bank purchases of gold is "virtually assured" in 2010 and beyond. Most notably, next year promises to be the first in over two decades that central banks opt to buy more gold than they sell.
    Embry's prescient predictions in recent years about gold's inevitable ascendancy are not just being validated by jittery central bankers. Since last year's financial crisis, there has also been a buying frenzy among many of the world's multi-billion dollar hedge funds, as well as plenty of other institutional investors and of course legions of individual speculators. All have been buying in record amounts. And most are venturing into the gold sector for the very first time.
    Similarly, gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) are attracting ever-increasing numbers of rattled investors, who view gold as the ultimate hedge against a weakening US dollar and continued instability in the US economy. The prospect of a continuation of low interest rates for some time to come is also adding to the yellow metal's universal appeal.
    Among the various other movers and shakers in the investment industry who are boldly endorsing this new Gold Rush is London-based Evy Hambro, who runs two of the world's largest commodities funds, BlackRock World Mining Fund and the Gold & General Fund.
    He too is also forecasting a paradigm shift in central bank gold transactions in 2010, which he argues will provide bullion's spot price with continued support in its current trading range - in excess of the $1,000-mark.
    "Gold's role is gathering a lot more attention in terms of risk diversification," he adds with a quintessentially British penchant for understatement. .
    Another gold advocate who has his finger on the pulse of Europe's largest financial marketplace is Nick Brooks, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities in London. He agrees that we are witnessing a global paradigm shift. One where major sovereign investors (state-owned investment funds), in particular, are increasingly hedging against an ailing dollar in favor of bullion.
    "India is likely just the tip of the iceberg with China, Russia and other major emerging market central banks indicating their interest in building their holdings of gold as part of their diversification away from the U.S. dollar," Brooks says. "This appears to be a structural change that may support the gold price on a medium to longer term basis."
    That said, there still remains one big seller that continues to cast a shadow over gold's increasing luster - the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is still committed to its well-publicized goal of unloading a remaining 201.3 tonnes of gold to raise money for its lending activities. Originally, it had over 400 tonnes to sell.
    However, an announcement that India's central bank bought 200 tonnes (6.43 million ounces) from the IMF at an average price of $1,045 an ounce in late October was a defining moment for the gold market. It represents the first overt move by a major central bank to aggressively diversify out of its foreign-exchange currency reserves, especially US dollars.
    It also gave gold a huge psychological boost by alleviating concerns that the IMF would gradually ease its holdings onto the market and cap gold's price upside as the Bank of England did a decade ago. (Net sales by the Bank of England and other European central banks were instrumental in depressing bullion's price in the late 1990s).
    Now there is considerable speculation that other major buyers will emerge among the world's largest central banks to soak up the balance of the IMF's overhang on the market. Certainly China is among them. Its official policy is to exchange a larger percentage of its $2.7 trillion in mostly US dollar-denominated currency reserves for hard assets. China is already the world's leading hoarder of gold, having revealed in April that it held 1,054 tonnes - a jump of 76% from its last official tally six years earlier.
    Embry, who has been following the gold sector for over 30 years, believes that Chinese officials must be keenly eyeing the remaining 200-plus tonnes of gold that the IMF has up for grabs. Yet, he notes that Beijing has to date proven to be a shrewd and "very clandestine" buyer that prefers not to over-excite the gold market by signaling its intentions to speculators.
    In fact, China's central bank was positioning itself to try to buy, at a discount, all of the gold that the IMF originally had for sale before "India stole a march on everyone" with its brazen buying spree, Embry says.
    He believes that the Chinese are therefore probably loathe to paying a premium to India's $1,045 average purchase price, especially since the headline-grabbing trade fueled a parabolic rise in gold prices (around $170) in November and early December before a pronounced pullback ensued.
    Yet, there are plenty of other much smaller gold-hungry central banks elsewhere in the world, especially in Asia, that may not wait to see if gold drops much further before they act, Embry says.
    "I think the rest of the IMF's gold will be spoken for without any difficulty...I expect somebody to come out of the woodwork, including the Russians, who are continually adding to their reserves," he adds.
    Indeed, central bank officials the world over are waking up to the fact that their predecessors acquired gold reserves in the first place to stave off currency devaluations. And that impetus is once again taking on a heightened importance against a backdrop of "continued economic and currency uncertainty, and inflation concerns." This is the conclusion of a recent report by the London-based World Gold Council.
    "In the official sector, we expect to see a continuing trend of central banks diversifying their dollar exposure in favor of the proven store of value represented by gold," the report adds.
    _________________
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
    
15. [verwijderd] 17 december 2009 04:52

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    quote:

    Gung Ho schreef:

    CENTRAL BANK GOLD BUYING
    Gold's Old Enemies: Allies in 2010
    A number of the world's most prominent gold experts, including Sprott Asset Management's John Embry, are expecting central banks to play a very supportive role in underpinning the rise in the gold market in 2010
    Author: Marc Davis (BNWnews.ca)
    Posted: Tuesday , 15 Dec 2009
    VANCOUVER -
    Central banks - the long-time nemesis of the gold sector - are doing an about-face to become its biggest supporters.
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record?****
    
    

    Howdy, ****Show me the record please, a grafiek, 'n tabel, anything.
    
    Je moet natuurlijk niet alleen maar de goud-gunstige artikelen hier plaatsen.
    Je moet ook eerlijk de negatieve artikelen presenteren, waarvan er genoeg te vinden zijn.
    
    Hieronder een voorbeeld, van gisteren, en nog wel uit China:
    
    .............Central Banks buying Gold, dus opletten geblazen.
    
    Goud is 'n BUY als de C.B.s verkopen en vice versa.............................
    
    Ja, I trust Gold, but I don't trust the Central Banks, ze wedden altijd op het verkeerde paard:
    
    THE CHINA POST
    Updated Thursday, December 17, 2009 10:48 am TWN, By Claudia Carpenter and Pham-Duy Nguyen, Bloomberg
    Gold buying by central banks may send a signal to..... SELL
    
    Some of the biggest buyers of GOLD may be sending THE STRONGEST SIGNAL TO SELL it, if past performance is indicative of future results.
    
    Central banks, holding about 18 percent of all gold ever mined, are expanding their reserves for the first time in a generation as a nine-year bull market drives prices to a record.
    
    The banks will buy 13.8 million ounces (429 metric tons) this year, worth US$15.5 billion, for the first net expansion in reserves since 1988, New York-based researcher CPM Group estimates. Gold fell 15 percent that year and took another 15 years to trade again at the same price as central banks from Switzerland to the UK cut their holdings.
    
    India, China and Russia are now adding to reserves as gold nears its longest winning streak since at least 1948. They're joining a rush as investors in exchange-traded funds amass holdings to rival the biggest central banks. Clive Capital LLC, manager of the biggest commodities hedge fund, had its best return since May last month, led by gains in precious metals.
    
    “This is late in the game to be buying gold,” said Peter Morici, a professor of business at the University of Maryland in College Park and former economic adviser to the U.S. government. “Central banks are not known for their investment acumen. What it reflects is a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy and the long-term durability of the dollar as a store of value.”
    
    Countries were also increasing their holdings in 1980 when gold peaked at US$850 an ounce, data compiled by the London-based World Gold Council show. The record was exceeded 28 years later.
    
    They sold a net 4,880 tons since 1999, as prices tumbled to a 20-year low of US$251.95 an ounce, according to estimates from London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. Prices began to recover in 2001, reaching a record US$1,226.56 on Dec. 3 and trading Wednesday at US$1,124.44 at 2 p.m. in Singapore.
    
    This year's 5.4 percent slump in the U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against six counterparts, is increasing the appetite for bullion. While gold and the dollar are traditional stores of value in times of economic stress, the U.S. currency proved no refuge as the Federal Reserve more than doubled its balance sheet to US$2.19 trillion in 15 months.
    
    The dollar's share of global currency reserves fell to a decade low of 62.8 percent in the second quarter, the International Monetary Fund said Sept. 30.
    
    India bought 200 tons from the IMF in October, the Washington-based lender said. It was the biggest single central- bank purchase in at least 30 years over such a short period, according to Timothy Green, author of “The Ages of Gold.”
    
    Gold has jumped 27 percent this year in dollars and yuan, 31 percent in rubles and 22 percent in euros as investors sought to diversify their holdings amid the worst global recession since World War II. Governments spent at least US$12 trillion to lift their economies out of the slump.
    
    Houdoe
    
    >--:-)-->
16. [verwijderd] 17 december 2009 07:43

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    Ik vind deze analyse wel interessant.
    
    As Good As Gold
    John Browne
    Dec 17, 2009
    
    As the price of gold has pulled back from its recent run up to $1,200, many investors are left to ponder what exactly drives the movement of such an important and financially sensitive commodity.
    
    Most people are aware that gold prices respond to inflation expectations and that central banks, as the largest holders of gold, are big players in the market. But there is a very murky understanding as to why and how these players affect prices, and what their ultimate goal may be.
    
    Although I profess no great insight into how central bankers from Bombay, Berlin and Beijing are looking to manage the global gold market, a better understanding of how our current system came to be provides some clue about gold's recent behavior.
    
    The First World War was not only catastrophic to an entire generation of Europeans, but it also left the international financial system in tatters. After the war, the great powers met in Rome to re-establish a workable international financial system. The British pound sterling, which had always been fully convertible into gold, was selected as the official 'reserve currency.' Then, during the Great Crash of the 1930's, the collapse of Austrian and German banks triggered a run on sterling for conversion into gold. Unable to withstand the assault, sterling was replaced as the reserve by the U.S. dollar. Although the dollar was also convertible into gold, the Roosevelt administration had limited the risk to the U.S. Treasury by restricting redemption to central banks.
    
    In 1944, the newly established International Monetary Fund (IMF) selected the U.S dollar as its 'international reserve asset', which enshrined a quasi-gold standard to undergird global financial transactions. However, the inflationary policies of most governments caused the market gold price to rise above the official price of $35 an ounce.
    
    In 1961, as the price of gold drifted higher relative to the dollar, the major central banks formed the London Gold Pool, a 'gentleman's club' to coordinate gold sales in order to stabilize gold prices. But by 1971, the dollar's devaluation had overwhelmed their coordinated interventions. Ultimately, President Nixon was compelled to break the dollar's last links to gold by closing the 'gold window' to other central banks. For the first time in human history, the world monetary system 'floated'.
    
    Since then, major central banks have continued to debase their currencies at pace with the U.S. dollar. In 1978, via the IMF, they moved to demonetize gold, which stood to expose the true inflation rate.
    
    This was first carried out by massive central bank sales of gold in exchange for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF. When this failed, the U.S. gained support, in 1999, for the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) to coordinate the release of central bank gold onto the market.
    
    Officially, at least, this was meant to prevent central banks from dumping gold. However, it is highly suspicious that these nominally independent central banks would take coordinated action to support the gold price. This is especially true given that they've spent the last forty years trying to do the opposite. In my opinion, it is much more likely that the CBGA was designed to covertly time purchases and sales to magnify gold's price volatility, in order to dissuade investors from holding it over the long term.
    
    I believe this intervention is the biggest factor currently distorting the gold market. But the precious metals investor should understand that central banks can only pressure the market, not dictate it. Gold will move up as the following dynamics unravel.
    
    First, the dollar has benefited from its reserve status, which creates demand for dollars to complete various transactions. However, the conditions that put the dollar on the world monetary throne have already changed, and it's just a matter of time before it is forced to abdicate. Just as French endured as the international diplomatic language long after France waned as a world power, so too is the dollar coasting upon its former glory. When the dollar loses its reserve status, demand for the greenback will evaporate.
    
    Second, many holders of surplus currency have diversified massively into the euro. But the euro is a tower built on unlevel ground. Already it is showing cracks as Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal exhibit signs of economic failure. What's more, the EU is about to assume responsibility for basket-case Iceland. If the solvent states of the union succumb to pressure to bail out their weaker neighbors, the euro will lose all of its newfound credibility with investors.
    
    Third, the U.S government has been successful in distorting the official inflation figures downward, reducing evidence of current inflation. Fortunately for the feds, people tend to think in 'nominal' rather than 'real' value terms. For example, investors still feel good buying stocks and bonds of American companies in U.S. dollars. They don't realize that when measured in terms of gold, or real money, the S&P has lost some 20 percent over the past ten years. Over the same period, the U.S. dollar has lost over 280 percent!
    
    Fourth (and perhaps least understood), the massive inflation already created by the Fed remains hidden within the banking system. As long as banks are able to lend directly to the Fed and Treasury at no risk, they have no incentive to circulate their new dollars. Only when the banks leverage up and lend to industry, or are forced to do so, will the prices for consumer goods skyrocket.
    
    Finally, by changing accounting standards for the banks' toxic assets and making self-congratulatory pronouncements, the government has created the impression that crisis has been averted and faith restored in paper currencies. This feeling of relief is flawed fundamentally. It will not be long before investors are brought to the devastating realization that true recovery from a credit boom requires tightening and recession - that Washington did not avert catastrophe, but ensured it.
    
    As these dynamics unravel, the full consequences of U.S. profligacy will be felt around the world. The central bankers could sign any agreement they wish but it won't stem the meteoric rise of gold. By then, investors will understand that those left holding dollars will be left holding the bill.
    
    
17. [verwijderd] 3 januari 2010 17:19

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    Voor wie nog mee wil doen ....
    
    2009 was hoe dan ook een van de beste beursjaren ooit en dat was met name te merken in alle resource stocks met spectaculaire resultaten, let eens op de uitslagen maar goed dit gold natuurlijk ook voor GH's eigen Not Guts No Glory porto die het afgelopen jaar gezien de correspondentie nauwgezet gevolgd werd door heel wat betaalde resource abo analisten tot de duurste aan toe. Maar goed GH blijft ook in 2010 geconcentreerd op P & H en laat de market darlings van Baystreet aan de bekende scribenten en huizen over.
    
    Mijn lijstje voor 2010...
    
    C.CIN:CNQ
    LCC.V
    MAI.TO
    FVI.V
    SMZ.V
    
    Canada International Minerals
    Lumina Copper
    Minera Andes
    Fortuna Silver
    Sinchao Metals
    
    In ieder geval allemaal veel succes en gezond 2010 en je kunt nog steeds meedoen.
    
    GH
    
    

    quote:

    "wilge" schreef:

    Afgelopen jaren deden forumleden van dit forum mee met de edelmetaalcompetitie. Ook voor 2010 organiseer ik weer een competitie met mooie prijzen. Wil je ook een top 5 maken met edelmetaalminers die het goed kunnen gaan doen in 2010.... meld je dan aan en post hier het rijtje: uiteraard pas na 1 januari want je hoeft nu nog niet je juweeltjes te verklappen.
    
    Meer info: [url=http://www.edelmetaal-info.nl/edelmetaalcompetitie_2010.html]Edelmetaalcompetitie 2010[/url]
    
    Allemaal een goed 2010 toegewenst![/quote]

    _________________
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
    
18. smith&jones 3 januari 2010 19:35

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    1 van je kandidaten: de SP van MAI is al een half jaar cooked....
    Sinchao: leuk, onlangs eens opgedolven, potentiele multibagger.
    
    Verder: Geef mij maar JIN.
    
    S&J.
19. [verwijderd] 4 januari 2010 11:46

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    Hi S&J,
    
    Das helemaal waar en als je Rob mag geloven a partner from hell maar MAI heeft zelf ook ijzers in het vuur die los van de winstgevende JV dit jaar nog wel eens extra kunnen knallen. Bovendien net als bij Fortuna is broker C afgelopen maand beide aandelen aan het oppompen en dat betekent over het algemeen veel hogere koersen. De fundamentals van beide alleen al zijn uitstekend en bieden wat dat betreft perspektieven dat zal C niet zijn ontgaan. Sinchao is natuurlijk zeer speculatief maar heeft een bijzonder lage MC en staat zeker nog niet op het radar van de market darling pumpers maar dat kan zo omslaan.
    
    We zullen zien
    
    Succes
    
    GH
    
    

    quote:

    smith&jones schreef:

    1 van je kandidaten: de SP van MAI is al een half jaar cooked....
    Sinchao: leuk, onlangs eens opgedolven, potentiele multibagger.
    
    Verder: Geef mij maar JIN.
    
    S&J.
    

    LAWSUIT UNDER WAY
    GATA sues U.S. Fed over gold swap disclosure
    Perhaps tilting against windmills, GATA in the U.S. is using the Courts to seek Federal Reserve disclosure of its actions in the gold markets which GATA reckons has led to the suppression of the gold price.
    Posted: Thursday , 31 Dec 2009
    The controversial Gold Anti Trust Action Committee (known as GATA) which believes that there has been a global concerted effort by governments and colluding bankers and some mining companies to suppress the price of gold over the years, has entered a lawsuit in the U.S. Court System seeking a court order for disclosure of the U.S. Federal Reserve's records of its market intervention which, GATA claims, has been instrumental in suppressing the monetary metal's price.
    The suit was filed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia and targets Fed records involving gold swaps, exchanges of gold with foreign financial institutions. In a letter dated September 17 this year to GATA's law firm, William J. Olson P.C. of Vienna, Virginia, GATA says Fed Board of Governors member Kevin M. Warsh acknowledged that the Fed has gold swap agreements with foreign banks but insisted that such documents remain secret.
    The lawsuit follows GATA's efforts to obtain from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department a candid accounting of the U.S. government's involvement in the gold market. "These efforts" says GATA "parallel those of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who long has been proposing legislation to audit the Fed. The Fed has wrapped in secrecy much of its massive intervention in the markets over the last year, and Paul's legislation recently was approved by the U.S. House of Representatives."
    The Fed claims that its gold swap records involve "trade secrets" exempt from disclosure under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act.
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
20. [verwijderd] 11 januari 2010 09:38

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    THE OLD ORDER CHANGETH
    China - gold's No1 producer and consumer is taking control of the market
    With China now the world's No. 1 producer and consumer of gold, and the prospect of Chinese and Indian demand alone exceeding 1,000 tonnes a year in the next few years, gold's price looks to be under new control.Author: Lawrence Williams Posted: Friday , 08 Jan 2010
    LONDON -
    It now looks for sure that China, in 2009, overtook India as the world's largest gold consumer. The ‘Middle Kingdom' had already surpassed South Africa and the U.S. as the world's largest gold miner a year earlier. Latest figures out of Beijing suggest that gold demand in China grew by an estimated 13.8% to around 450 tonnes in 2009, while India's estimated consumption last year is put at only around 210 tonnes - about half its consumption level in 2008. Much of the disparity last year was due to a decline in Indian buying as purchasers were put off by higher prices.
    This year initial projections suggest that although Indian demand may well recover to near 2008 levels, Chinese buying will keep it well ahead - but then projections made in January are prone to tempt fate. Even so, the reported pre-Chinese New Year surge in gold buying by the general public in China could mean this year's disparity in the figures becomes even wider.
    On the production side, China's output reached a new high of 282.5 tonnes for the first 11 months of the year suggesting an overall total of around 310 tonnes for the full year, assuming November's monthly output figure of just short of 28 tonnes was maintained in December.
    What does remain to be seen though is how much of this assumed 310 tonnes will have been picked up by the general public, and how much by the State, and the suggestion is that the State may well have retained it all, which means the public is buying imported gold. Although Chinese reporting of State holdings can be obscure to say the least as it differs depending on which government entity technically holds the gold. China has in the past not reported official gold reserve growth until the gold is physically moved into Central Bank coffers - if then!
    This all makes the estimates of non Central Bank gold supply and demand virtually impossible to assess accurately (if indeed this has ever been really possible) given the unknown of where the world's largest producer's gold is actually going - depending on what statistics the Chinese are prepared to release to the outside world. Digging too deeply locally could end one in jail, as Rio Tinto's iron ore pricing negotiators have found out to their cost!
    What is apparent though, and this has been confirmed by various statements and anecdotal evidence, is that the Chinese government and Central Bank is wary of the declining value of the dollar, given the nation's enormous dollar reserves, and is feverishly pushing state entities into diversifying its reserve base - hence the suggestion that all China's newly mined gold may well be sitting in government coffers - and also why China doesn't appear to have stepped in to buy IMF gold. It can happily expand its gold reserves surreptitiously which doesn't rock the markets too much.
    If, for example, China had bought the IMF gold on offer, the signal this would have sent to the markets could have led to a huge gold price surge and a consequent devaluation of the dollar and, given China's enormous dollar holdings, this doesn't make economic sense. Far rather buy the gold under the table from its own producers and hide it from the world at large until such a time it may be economically expedient to announce it.
    Given the Chinese populace is taking its lead from the government and, apparently, buying gold as an ultimate insurance policy either as jewellery or bullion, should the price start slipping back substantially it would be easy for China to announce it has taken another couple of hundred tonnes into its reserves and the market would bounce back again, so protecting its' citizens investments. This is pure speculation of course, but does seem a logical way of looking at Chinese economic policy with respect to gold and its own public.
    Take the following comments from Nidhi Nath Srinivas of India's Economic Times:
    "Since 2003, Beijing has been buying most of the gold excavated and refined locally. It was a perfect strategy. No one in the international market became the wiser and the bill was paid in yuans. Today, China has more than 1,000 tonnes in its official vaults, up 75% in six years. Its gold reserves are now the fifth-largest among national central banks after the US, Germany, France and Italy. This insurance helped mandarins in Beijing sleep easier at night.
    
    "But the public still had no such hedge. So, Beijing has begun actively encouraging people to invest up to 5% of their income in gold and silver. The biddable Chinese have diligently followed this advice. Full-year 2009 private demand in mainland China could outstrip India by a fifth."
    Given China's explosive growth, which has to be bringing ever more and more of its enormous population into the urban middle classes with ever increasing purchasing power, this ongoing rise in purchases by the Chinese public is likely to continue to expand. China may not have the gold purchase gene ingrained into its psyche like India, but gold has still had an important place in the Chinese mind, and now the rising wealth means more and more people have the purchasing power to buy some - even if in pretty small amounts.
    But you can't rule out India either. Its population is on a similar scale to China's, and may even outstrip it in the years ahead and its economic growth is rapid, although not as substantial as China's. The Indian government has also taken the lead, through its 200 tonne purchase ofIMF gold, and the state too is sanctioning its own institutions (state controlled banks and the Post Office) to sell gold coins and bullion to the people. As the Indian gold buying public becomes more used to the current higher gold price levels - and there is at least a suggestion that this is already happening - then demand there is likely to return and increase. It may not take more than say five years, assuming growth continues at the current rate in China and India, for combined demand to reach 1,000 tonnes a year. Now that's an awfully big hunk out of world gold production (over 40%) - and there are a lot of other countries where gold purchase is endemic in the system, not to mention the U.S. gold bugs who have been soaking up the U.S. Mint's allocations of Eagles and Buffaloes and the ever growing ETF investment in bullion. On these grounds alone perhaps the recent growth in the gold price is more than justified, and there is the suggestion that there is more to come.
    Obviously, though, where there is huge gold investment, at some stage disinvestment could materialise which could wipe the smile off gold investors' faces, but while economic turmoil continues - and it ain't over yet' - this seems unlikely to happen except perhaps in terms of forced liquidations if there is another stock market collapse. And, as we saw in October 2008 when funds were having to offload anything of value to preserve liquidity, gold held up best of all and was the first to bounce back to prior levels.
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it