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In gold we trust

1. relic 7 juli 2010 16:39

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   Tja, nu verkopen (op de top) en dan later als het ingestort is voor veel goedkoper terugkopen.
   Ze snappen wel hoe je geld moet maken...
   
   Centrale bankiers ruilen en masse goud voor cash
   
   07-07-2010 15:59:56
   
   Brussel (tijd) - Centrale bankiers bieden tegen een recordtempo een deel van hun goudvoorraad aan bij de Bank voor Internationale Betalingen (BIB), de centrale bankier van de centrale bankiers, in ruil voor cash. Dat schrijft de Amerikaanse zakenkrant The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
   
   Centrale banken gebruiken steeds meer de BIB als een soort 'pandjeshuis' om geld op te halen. Sinds december boden ze - dankbaar gebruik makend van de recordprijzen voor het gele metaal - 349 metrische ton goud aan in ruil voor 14 miljard dollar cash. Dat leert een onopvallende statistiek op pagina 163 van het jaarverslag van de BIB.
   
   Analisten bestempelen het cijfer als een verrassing. Ze gingen er doorgaans van uit dat de centrale banken hun goudvoorraad op peil hielden. Nu blijkt dat ze swapovereenkomsten sloten. Daarbij verkopen ze goud in ruil voor cash, met de belofte het goud later terug te kopen. Volgens het goudonderzoeksbureau GFMS wilden centrale bankiers wat extra cash achter de hand houden. 'Het ruikt naar een soort noodingreep', zegt GFMS-directeur Philip Klapwijk.
2. [verwijderd] 12 juli 2010 16:57

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   Secret gold swap has spooked the market - Telegraph 12-07-10 16:49
   Meanwhile, economists and gold market-watchers were determined to hunt down which bank is short of cash – curious about who is using their stash of precious metal for what looks suspiciously like a secret bailout.
   At first it looked like the BIS was swapping gold with a troubled central bank. After all, the institution is the central bankers' bank and its purpose to conduct transactions with national monetary authorities.
   Central banks in the troubled southern zone of Europe were considered the most likely perpetrators.
   According to the World Gold Council, central banks in Greece, Spain and Portugal held 112.2, 281.6 and 382.5 tons of gold respectively in June – leading analysts to point fingers at Portugal, or a combination of the three.
   But Edel Tully, an analyst from UBS, noted that eurozone central banks would be severely limited with what they could do with the influx of extra cash – unable to transfer it straight to governments or make use of the primary bond markets.
   She then listed the only other potential monetary authorities with enough gold as the US, China, Switzerland, Japan, Russia, India and Taiwan – and the International Monetary Fund.
   This led to musings that the counterparty was the IMF, making sense because the lender of last resort is historically prone to cash shortages and has been quietly selling off gold in the first half of the year.
   Renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair adopted this explanation. The panic came when people mistook a lease for a swap, he argues. Far from being a big release of gold into the market, it is simply a commercial arrangement between the IMF and BIS with a favourable rate of interest paid for the foreign currency.
   "Gold swaps are usually undertaken by monetary authorities," he writes on his industry blog, MineSet. "The gold is exchanged for foreign exchange deposits with an agreement that the transaction be unwound at a future time at an agreed price.
   "The IMF will pay interest on the foreign exchange received. Historically swaps occur when entities like the IMF have a need for foreign exchange, but do not wish to sell the gold. In this case, gold is a leveraging device for needed currency to meet requirements.
   "The many reports that characterise the large IMF gold swap as a sale of gold into the markets do not understand the difference between a swap and a lease."
   However, the day after original reports about the swaps, BIS emailed a statement saying that the swaps had not been conducted with monetary authorities but purely with commercial banks.
   This did nothing to quell the sense of mystery surrounding the deal or deals. It is almost inconceivable that a single commercial bank could have accumulated so much gold alone. And cynics have suggested that the whole affair still looks like a secretive European bailout that a single country wants to keep quiet.
   In this case, one or more of the so-called bullion banks – which act as wholesale market-makers and include Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, HSBC, Barclays, UBS, Societe Generale, Mitsui and the Bank of Nova Scotia – would have agreed to act on behalf of a monetary authority.
   This would add an extra layer of anonymity. "So the BIS swaps look like a tripartite transaction," writes Adrian Douglas of the Gold Anti-Trust Association. "The commercial bank or banks made a swap with a central bank or banks and then the commercial bank or banks made a swap with the BIS."
   Analysts for Commerzbank note that in the meantime, "The price of gold is tending weaker at present."
   Baltic Dry Index still falling
   The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping costs, has fallen for the longest period in nine years, due to lower volumes of iron ore being shipped to China.
   Surplus steel means manufacturers are relying on stockpiles, rather than shipping in iron ore from abroad. The index of freight rates on international trade routes fell 38 points, or 2pc, to 1,902 points on Friday in its 31st straight
   www.telegraph.co.uk/fin.....arket.html
   _________________
   If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
   
   
3. smith&jones 12 juli 2010 18:12

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   quote:

   relic schreef:

   Tja, nu verkopen (op de top) en dan later als het ingestort is voor veel goedkoper terugkopen.
   Ze snappen wel hoe je geld moet maken...
   
   Centrale bankiers ruilen en masse goud voor cash
   
   07-07-2010 15:59:56
   
   Brussel (tijd) - Centrale bankiers bieden tegen een recordtempo een deel van hun goudvoorraad aan bij de Bank voor Internationale Betalingen (BIB), de centrale bankier van de centrale bankiers, in ruil voor cash. Dat schrijft de Amerikaanse zakenkrant The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
   
   Centrale banken gebruiken steeds meer de BIB als een soort 'pandjeshuis' om geld op te halen. Sinds december boden ze - dankbaar gebruik makend van de recordprijzen voor het gele metaal - 349 metrische ton goud aan in ruil voor 14 miljard dollar cash. Dat leert een onopvallende statistiek op pagina 163 van het jaarverslag van de BIB.
   
   Analisten bestempelen het cijfer als een verrassing. Ze gingen er doorgaans van uit dat de centrale banken hun goudvoorraad op peil hielden. Nu blijkt dat ze swapovereenkomsten sloten. Daarbij verkopen ze goud in ruil voor cash, met de belofte het goud later terug te kopen. Volgens het goudonderzoeksbureau GFMS wilden centrale bankiers wat extra cash achter de hand houden. 'Het ruikt naar een soort noodingreep', zegt GFMS-directeur Philip Klapwijk.
   

   Het ruikt naar enorme zwendel en manipulatie: Afspraken maken om goud te dumpen om zo de prijs onderuit te halen en later goedkoop terug te kopen: illegale praktijken & kartelvorming... but what else is new.
   Let op als deze verkopen redelijk goed worden verwerkt door de markt, dan zijn de Westerse CB's hun laatste assets kwijt en wordt het in paniek naar de uitgang... Na een initiële daling zou goud dan letterlijk door het dak kunnen...
   
   ߶∆.
   
   S&J.
4. [verwijderd] 12 juli 2010 21:24

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   quote:

   relic schreef:

   Tja, nu verkopen (op de top) en dan later als het ingestort is voor veel goedkoper terugkopen.
   Ze snappen wel hoe je geld moet maken...
   
   Centrale bankiers ruilen en masse goud voor cash
   
   07-07-2010 15:59:56
   
   Brussel (tijd) - Centrale bankiers bieden tegen een recordtempo een deel van hun goudvoorraad aan bij de Bank voor Internationale Betalingen (BIB), de centrale bankier van de centrale bankiers, in ruil voor cash. Dat schrijft de Amerikaanse zakenkrant The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
   
   Centrale banken gebruiken steeds meer de BIB als een soort 'pandjeshuis' om geld op te halen. Sinds december boden ze - dankbaar gebruik makend van de recordprijzen voor het gele metaal - 349 metrische ton goud aan in ruil voor 14 miljard dollar cash. Dat leert een onopvallende statistiek op pagina 163 van het jaarverslag van de BIB.
   
   Analisten bestempelen het cijfer als een verrassing. Ze gingen er doorgaans van uit dat de centrale banken hun goudvoorraad op peil hielden. Nu blijkt dat ze swapovereenkomsten sloten. Daarbij verkopen ze goud in ruil voor cash, met de belofte het goud later terug te kopen. Volgens het goudonderzoeksbureau GFMS wilden centrale bankiers wat extra cash achter de hand houden. 'Het ruikt naar een soort noodingreep', zegt GFMS-directeur Philip Klapwij
   

   Waar haalt de BIB het geld vandaan om dit te kunnen bekostigen?
5. [verwijderd] 12 juli 2010 21:49

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   quote:

   Svartalfa schreef:

   Waar haalt de BIB het geld vandaan om dit te kunnen bekostigen?
   

   Goede vraag Svartalfal,
   Mijn inziens gewoon digitaal uit de pc.
   
   Maar ongetwijfeld zal JR hier een antwoord op weten dat het hier gaat om eerlijk verdiend geld dat via allerlei vreemde constructies (die niemand meer begrijpt) in de markt is gezet.
   
   gr.fes
   
   
6. [verwijderd] 16 juli 2010 22:44

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   BIS footnote unlocks major development in gold use
   3:37pm BST
   By Jan Harvey and Veronica Brown
   LONDON (Reuters) - A small footnote in the Bank of International Settlements' latest annual statement has flagged up a potentially major development in the way the metal can be used as an active financial instrument.
   But its ultimate impact on the bullion market is dependent on the identity of the counterparty in the swap -- a topic still being hotly debated in the gold community in Europe.
   The BIS noted in page 163 of its annual report, released in June, that its gold holdings included 346 tonnes of gold "which the bank held in connection with gold swap operations, under which the bank exchanges currencies for physical gold".
   When analysts picked up on the move, it sparked a flurry of speculation over who the counterparty was, the origin of the gold, the impact on the market and what it said about the extent of bank stress at the height of Europe's sovereign debt crisis.
   The BIS said the gold in question was used for "pure swap operations with commercial banks", but declined to respond to further questions from Reuters on the transaction.
   The largest question mark hangs over where commercial banks would have found 346 tonnes of gold -- worth around $13.5 billion (8.8 billion pounds) at today's prices -- for such an operation.
   In an interview with Reuters Television this week, GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk said commercial banks may have had enough unallocated gold on deposit to make up such a tonnage.
   But even the largest commercial banks would struggle to trade that amount on an annual basis, and as this would be on behalf of clients, it would be unavailable for swaps.
   "No commercial bank has ever had 350 tonnes of gold to swap," said Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg. "Even 10 tonnes seems out of range."
   If the gold were sourced from unallocated gold accounts, that would also raise questions over the viability of the bank effectively pawning its clients' gold to support itself.
   RAISE CURRENCY
   More likely, analysts say, is that the gold was sourced from the official sector, with a central bank loaning gold to a commercial bank or banks that used it to raise currency.
   "Just as the bullion banks were the go-betweens between the producer and the bullion market in the days when there was gold hedging being done, in the same way, the producer may have now been replaced by the central bank, and the investment bank may be the conduit," said Credit Agricole analyst Robin Bhar.
   The timing of the swap, which is likely to have taken place in December or January, suggests it may have been done by European commercial banks needing to source liquidity during the sovereign debt crisis of early 2010.
   Of those countries on the front line of the crisis -- Portugal, Greece and Spain -- only Portugal has enough gold to have covered the swap, with 382.5 tonnes in its reserves. Portugal's central bank declined to comment on the deal.
   But analysts point out that banks in the nations closest to the euro zone sovereign debt crisis are not the only ones exposed to it. Commercial banks elsewhere also have exposure to problems in southern Europe.
   Until recently, the amount of gold that could be used in swap operations by European central banks was limited by the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which was designed to prevent disruption of the gold market by official sector activity.
   In the first two CBGAs of 1999 and 2004, signatories agreed not to increase their activities in the derivatives and lending markets above the levels of Sept 1999. But the third pact, which came into force in September 2009, included no such commitment.
   ULTIMATELY POSITIVE
   So what does this mean for the gold market? The swap was first seized on as bearish, as some claimed it could lead to the BIS selling the metal on the market in the case of a default.
   But the fact that the gold was mobilised for temporary financing without being sold was ultimately identified by analysts as positive.
   "In conversations with clients we are consistently asked why central banks do not sell some or all of their gold to reduce their debt burden," UBS analyst Edel Tully said.
   "The latest CBGA figures, in addition to wider sovereign activity, indicate that central banks do not want to sell their gold in 2010. The BIS swap operation highlights that central banks can mobilise their gold without selling it."
   A lot will depend on the risk of default. If the counterparty in the transaction fails to redeem the gold, it could hit the market, with heavy consequences for prices.
   The thesis that the swaps are connected to the financial crisis is one that can be tested. Analysts will be closely watching the next BIS statement in early August for signs that the swaps are rising, or being closed out.
   "We can monitor its progress relative to the funding crisis, so if the euro crisis quietens down after the stress tests, it will go away," said Andy Smith, senior metals analyst at Bache Commodities. "If it blows up again, it should expand."
   (Editing by Sue Thomas)
   _________________
   If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
   
   
7. [verwijderd] 16 juli 2010 23:03

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   Jeetje, jullie weten echt alles wat er met goud gebeurt wel een positieve draai te geven! De realiteit is dat de kans op deflatie ontzettend groeit en dat de waarde van geld dan groeit en de waarde van goud daalt. Dus kun je maar beter cash dan goud hebben. Simpel.
   
   Disclosure: Short goud.
8. smith&jones 16 juli 2010 23:16

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   M.i wordt het begrip: 'eigendom' van goud stelselmatig uitgehold, en wordt het in toenemende mate gebruikt om de waarde van fiatgeld toch te kunnen duiden.
   
   De bottom line is: wie daadwerkelijk fysiek heeft liggen, heeft straks de knikkers...
   
   S&J.
9. [verwijderd] 27 juli 2010 09:16

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   The Death of Paper Money
   As they prepare for holiday reading in Tuscany, City bankers are buying up rare copies of an obscure book on the mechanics of Weimar inflation published in 1974.
   
   By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
   Published: 7:05PM BST 25 Jul 2010
   137 Comments
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   Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, himself a scholar of the Great Depression, has indicated he would consider extra stimulus for the economy.
   Ebay is offering a well-thumbed volume of "Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations" at a starting bid of $699 (shipping free.. thanks a lot).
   The crucial passage comes in Chapter 17 entitled "Velocity". Each big inflation -- whether the early 1920s in Germany, or the Korean and Vietnam wars in the US -- starts with a passive expansion of the quantity money. This sits inert for a surprisingly long time. Asset prices may go up, but latent price inflation is disguised. The effect is much like lighter fuel on a camp fire before the match is struck.
   People’s willingness to hold money can change suddenly for a "psychological and spontaneous reason" , causing a spike in the velocity of money. It can occur at lightning speed, over a few weeks. The shift invariably catches economists by surprise. They wait too long to drain the excess money.
   "Velocity took an almost right-angle turn upward in the summer of 1922," said Mr O Parsson. Reichsbank officials were baffled. They could not fathom why the German people had started to behave differently almost two years after the bank had already boosted the money supply. He contends that public patience snapped abruptly once people lost trust and began to "smell a government rat".
   Some might smile at the Bank of England "surprise" at the recent the jump in Brtiish inflation. Across the Atlantic, Fed critics say the rise in the US monetary base from $871bn to $2,024bn in just two years is an incendiary pyre that will ignite as soon as US money velocity returns to normal.
   Morgan Stanley expects bond carnage as this catches up with the Fed, predicting that yields on US Treasuries will rocket to 5.5pc. This has not happened so far. 10-year yields have fallen below 3pc, and M2 velocity has remained at historic lows of 1.72.
   As a signed-up member of the deflation camp, I think the Bank and the Fed are right to keep their nerve and delay the withdrawal of stimulus -- though that case is easier to make in the US where core inflation has dropped to the lowest since the mid 1960s. But fact that O Parsson’s book is suddenly in demand in elite banking circles is itself a sign of the sort of behavioral change that can become self-fulfilling.
   As it happens, another book from the 1970s entitled "When Money Dies: the Nightmare of The Weimar Hyper-Inflation" has just been reprinted. Written by former Tory MEP Adam Fergusson -- endorsed by Warren Buffett as a must-read -- it is a vivid account drawn from the diaries of those who lived through the turmoil in Germany, Austria, and Hungary as the empires were broken up.
   Near civil war between town and country was a pervasive feature of this break-down in social order. Large mobs of half-starved and vindictive townsmen descended on villages to seize food from farmers accused of hoarding. The diary of one young woman described the scene at her cousin’s farm.
   "In the cart I saw three slaughtered pigs. The cowshed was drenched in blood. One cow had been slaughtered where it stood and the meat torn from its bones. The monsters had slit the udder of the finest milch cow, so that she had to be put out of her misery immediately. In the granary, a rag soaked with petrol was still smouldering to show what these beasts had intended," she wrote.
   Grand pianos became a currency or sorts as pauperized members of the civil service elites traded the symbols of their old status for a sack of potatoes and a side of bacon. There is a harrowing moment when each middle-class families first starts to undertand that its gilt-edged securities and War Loan will never recover. Irreversible ruin lies ahead. Elderly couples gassed themselves in their apartments.
   Foreigners with dollars, pounds, Swiss francs, or Czech crowns lived in opulence. They were hated. "Times made us cynical. Everybody saw an enemy in everybody else," said Erna von Pustau, daughter of a Hamburg fish merchant.
   Great numbers of people failed to see it coming. "My relations and friends were stupid. They didn’t understand what inflation meant. Our solicitors were no better. My mother’s bank manager gave her appalling advice," said one well-connected woman.
   "You used to see the appearance of their flats gradually changing. One remembered where there used to be a picture or a carpet, or a secretaire. Eventually their rooms would be almost empty. Some of them begged -- not in the streets -- but by making casual visits. One knew too well what they had come for."
   Corruption became rampant. People were stripped of their coat and shoes at knife-point on the street. The winners were those who -- by luck or design -- had borrowed heavily from banks to buy hard assets, or industrial conglomerates that had issued debentures. There was a great transfer of wealth from saver to debtor, though the Reichstag later passed a law linking old contracts to the gold price. Creditors clawed back something.
   A conspiracy theory took root that the inflation was a Jewish plot to ruin Germany. The currency became known as "Judefetzen" (Jew- confetti), hinting at the chain of events that would lead to Kristallnacht a decade later.
   While the Weimar tale is a timeless study of social disintegration, it cannot shed much light on events today. The final trigger for the 1923 collapse was the French occupation of the Ruhr, which ripped a great chunk out of German industry and set off mass resistance.
   Lloyd George suspected that the French were trying to precipitate the disintegration of Germany by sponsoring a break-away Rhineland state (as indeed they were). For a brief moment rebels set up a separatist government in Dusseldorf. With poetic justice, the crisis recoiled against Paris and destroyed the franc.
   The Carthaginian peace of Versailles had by then poisoned everything. It was a patriotic duty not to pay taxes that would be sequestered for reparation payments to the enemy. Influenced by the Bolsheviks, Germany had become a Communist cauldron. partakists tried to take Berlin. Worker `soviets' proliferated. Dockers and shipworkers occupied police stations and set up barricades in Hamburg. Communist Red Centuries fought deadly street battles with right-wing militia.
   Nostalgics plotted the restoration of Bavaria’s Wittelsbach monarchy and the old currency, the gold-backed thaler. The Bremen Senate issued its own notes tied to gold. Others issued currencies linked to the price of rye.
   This is not a picture of America, or Britain, or Europe in 2010. But we should be careful of embracing the opposite and overly-reassuring assumption that this is a mild replay of Japan’s Lost Decade, that is to say a slow and largely benign slide into deflation as debt deleveraging exerts its discipline.
   Japan was the world’s biggest external creditor when the Nikkei bubble burst twenty years ago. It had a private savings rate of 15pc of GDP. The Japanese people have gradually cut this rate to 2pc, cushioning the effects of the long slump. The Anglo-Saxons have no such cushion.
   There is a clear temptation for the West to e
10. [verwijderd] 27 juli 2010 09:18

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    This is not a picture of America, or Britain, or Europe in 2010. But we should be careful of embracing the opposite and overly-reassuring assumption that this is a mild replay of Japan’s Lost Decade, that is to say a slow and largely benign slide into deflation as debt deleveraging exerts its discipline.
    Japan was the world’s biggest external creditor when the Nikkei bubble burst twenty years ago. It had a private savings rate of 15pc of GDP. The Japanese people have gradually cut this rate to 2pc, cushioning the effects of the long slump. The Anglo-Saxons have no such cushion.
    There is a clear temptation for the West to extricate itself from the errors of the Greenspan asset bubble, the Brown credit bubble, and the EMU sovereign bubble by stealth default through inflation. But that is a danger for later years. First we have the deflation shock of lives. Then -- and only then -- will central banks go to far and risk losing control over their printing experiment as velocity takes off. One problem at a time please.
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
11. [verwijderd] 4 augustus 2010 14:13

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    Beware the Dragon's gold teeth
    China is putting itself in a position where dominance of the gold market, of which it is capable, could lead to it exerting global financial hegemony.
    Author: Lawrence Williams
    Posted: Wednesday , 04 Aug 2010
    LONDON -
    Almost a year ago Mineweb published a short article referring to a report from China that state-controlled organisations - as virtually all entities are in China - had launched marketing efforts at persuading its citizens to buy gold and silver as an investment. This turned out to be the best read story ever published on Mineweb. Not surprisingly with such an article, which we have been assured by our Chinese contacts is correct, there have been those who have accused us of falling prey to pure promotional hype from the gold lobby and there has been no such programme. But the facts belie the doubters with Chinese gold purchases by investors rocketing last year and this.
    Earlier this year you could also have read on Mineweb that the World Gold Council had entered an agreement with China's, and the world's, largest bank the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (state-owned of course) to co-operate to promote gold investments in China.
    Yesterday we learnt that China is further loosening its controls on the import and export of gold on the one hand, and on the other that it is also going to support Chinese company investment in overseas gold mining projects.
    Does anyone notice a pattern emerging here?
    For long we have put forward the view on Mineweb that Eastern buying, and that from China in particular, will effectively put a floor under the gold price - and that floor seems to be rising continuously as seen in the gold price's stair step advances in recent months. A senior Chinese official has stated publicly that the country will buy gold on the dips so as not to disrupt the market and undermine the US dollar - and there is perhaps more than anecdotal evidence that the Chinese government is buying gold, effectively surreptitiously, for its reserves, but not disclosing this until it reckons it is opportune so to do. Last time it announced an increase in gold reserves it had in fact been accumulating the yellow metal for 6 years before it actually made the fact public.
    But why should China hold back dissemination of this information? The Chinese know that an announcement that shows it has accumulated a further large gold holding will move the gold price sharply upwards. (Another reason why China has not bought any of the IMF gold.) A resultant gold price leap could well be seen globally as a devaluation of the dollar, leading to yet another nail in the greenback's coffin, and given the dollar-related element in China's huge currency reserve surplus, that could be seen as not being in China's best interest - at least for now.
    There has also been considerable evidence that Chinese companies (all state-controlled) have been buying up western investments - in the resource sector in particular - at a phenomenal, and seemingly ever-growing, rate. Some would say this is an attempt to convert some of the nation's huge dollar currency surplus into hard assets, while at the same time helping secure future supply lines for the global industrial giant. Some of China's top economists have gone on record as saying that they have little confidence in the long term future of the dollar as the only real reserve currency, and replacing some of its dollar reserves in this manner is probably - certainly - government policy.
    But what this does mean to the West in general, and to the U.S.A. in particular, is ‘don't screw with the Dragon'. It has golden teeth which can really cause financial damage to the status quo if it should so wish, and it is also gaining a position where it can dominate the supply of many militarily strategic metals and minerals, not just gold, should any other country try and resort to gunboat diplomacy! The time is perhaps not ripe - yet, but every move that China makes in the resource sector in general, and in gold and in some particularly strategic metals and minerals (think rare earths) could be interpreted as a long term plan to make China top dog in the global economy and, at the same time, make it secure from any nation which might want to try to prevent it reaching this position of global dominance by any means.
    But in the meantime it is set on keeping its own 1.4 billion population happy - and subservient. The best way of doing this is by continuing internal growth, which in turn is needed to generate the demand to fuel its industrial engine. 8% GDP growth is a bad year for China. What would most of the West's industrialised nations give for a growth rate of half that today? Within this policy, persuading its new, and rapidly growing, middle classes to invest in gold, and then ensure the metal continues to rise gradually in price, thus maintain wealth aspirations, is one way of keeping a potentially troublesome element of society more than happy.
    Now maybe I'm being too cynical in my analysis, but history also suggests that some nations are prepared to look very long term in their approach to global business and politics, and ultimate dominance in both - and the Chinese seem to fit this pattern well. On the other hand a capitalist democracy is less well suited to extended planning of this type as fortunes of political parties wax and wane and agendas are constantly shifting. The world order is changing. The U.S. cannot exert its current global financial control for ever.
    Follow Lawrence Williams on twitter - www.twitter.com/lawrie_williams
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
12. [verwijderd] 10 augustus 2010 10:03

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    A boat laden with gold needed to ride out the financial storm - Nielson
    There are numerous practical reasons why the U.S. won't make moves that will counter the current dire financial situation - gold may protect from the dire consequences.
    Author: Lorimer Wilson
    Posted: Monday , 09 Aug 2010
    TORONTO (WWW.FINANCIALARTICLESUMMARIESTODAY.COM) -
    
    "The U.S. is in an untenable position - between a rock and a hard place - in an inescapable debt trap - where the options are, at best, dire - either hyperinflation or a deflationary depression! It would seem that all we can do is ride out the storm in a boat laden with gold" said Jeff Nielson (BullionBullsCanada.com) in a recent speech* going on to say:
    "The U.S.'s severe debt problems are exacerbated by its $70 trillion in unfunded liabilities to fund the social 'entitlements' of the mass of baby boomers who will be retiring by the tens of millions in the next few decades and there is absolutely NO likelihood of the U.S. government ever reducing those entitlements. Any attempt to do so would cause severe economic disruptions and civil unrest."
    Nielson maintained that there are numerous practical reasons why the U.S. will make no attempt to alleviate the dire situation.
    1. A LOOMING PENSION CRISIS
    His first reason was the looming pension crisis "where it is estimated that U.S. pensions were underfunded by about $3 trillion as of the end of 2008 and even after the recent rally in U.S. equity markets that pension deficit still amounts to roughly $2 trillion. Thus, even if the U.S. government could somehow make full pay-outs on the entitlement programs which U.S. seniors will be relying upon, they would still have to raise an additional $2 trillion just to maintain their standard of living not to mention the consumption level which this consumer economy relies upon for its very survival. Why? Because, with over 40% of Americans having less than $10,000 in savings, Americans are more dependent today on these entitlement programs than any other generation of Americans in history."
    2. A FURTHER COLLAPSE IN HOUSE PRICES
    "With 75% of the ‘assets' held by retired and soon-to-be retired Americans consisting of real estate," said Nielson, "they will need to dump roughly $2 trillion of real estate onto the U.S. market - the most over supplied real estate market in history - in order to maintain their standard of living. To preclude such an event the U.S. government has been desperate to ‘re-inflate' the U.S. housing bubble - at any cost - to buoy up American 'real estate' accounts and bail out the banks holding the mortgages on houses in foreclosure. Nevertheless, I believe the U.S. will see a second housing bubble because:
    1. the U.S. Federal Reserve has taken the interest rate all the way down to zero - and left it there.
    2. millions of U.S. houses have either been held off the market by U.S. banks or are tied-up in U.S. foreclosure proceedings. Both such actions have artificially reduced "inventories" of unsold homes by at least 50% putting in place a (very) temporary ‘bottom' in prices.
    3. the U.S. government agencies which are responsible for 90% of all new mortgages, have, once again, lowered their lending standards. In fact, when the government buyers' ‘credit' is factored in, more than half of all U.S. homes purchased in 2009 had zero down-payments.
    4. the Federal Reserve has been buying up every U.S. mortgage bond in sight given the record default rates which currently exist in the U.S. In fact, more than 25% of all U.S. mortgage holders have "underwater" mortgages and 15% of all U.S. mortgages are currently in default and/or foreclosure - an all-time record.
    5. buying all these bonds with newly-printed dollars has temporarily kept U.S. mortgage rates several percent lower than they would have been without this hidden and very expensive taxpayer subsidy. This has resulted in the Federal Reserve absorbing more than $2 trillion of bonds and securities which - to be polite - are of extremely dubious value and the moment the Fed stops buying up all these debt instruments, U.S. mortgage rates will shoot higher."
    Nielson made the point that with all of the aforementioned "occurring at a time when millions of option ARM mortgages are about to reset, and more than 40% of the millions of Americans holding these mortgages have been making minimum payments, it follows that when these mortgages reset, borrowers could see their monthly payments not merely increasing by 40% or 50% per month, but by up to several times their current payments."
    "In addition", Nielson went on, "These millions of mortgage resets are occurring at the same time that long term unemployment in the U.S. is at its highest level in at least 70 years, and U.S. ‘real' housing inventories are at their highest levels ever. As such, once this second collapse begins, there will be no means of stabilizing the market because, as I see it;
    1. Interest rates can literally only go higher
    2. U.S. homeowners have less equity in their homes than at any time in history
    3. Retiring baby boomers will have to dump $1 to $2 trillion of real estate onto this market just to partially fund their under-funded retirements - and much more than that if entitlement programs should have their benefits slashed."
    Nielson maintained that the above "will not only undermine the U.S. housing market for many years to come, but any reductions in U.S. entitlement programs will directly make the next collapse of the U.S. housing sector that much more severe - because it would force the sale of much more real estate."
    3. THE FUTURE COST OF INTEREST PAYMENTS AND "UNFUNDED LIABILITIES"
    Nielson reminded his audience that "the Obama government has already admitted that over the course of this decade more than 50% of every new dollar of debt will be consumed in interest payments on old debt. Those interest payments, alone, will exceed $1 trillion/per year before the end of this decade. Added to this will be roughly $2 trillion per year of "unfunded liabilities", which will now have to be funded. This means that over the course of this decade, the U.S. government will have to come up with an additional $3 trillion/year - above and beyond all current spending programs. This will roughly double U.S. government spending, and roughly quadruple current deficits.
    Even the largest tax increases in history could only fund, at most, about 10% of this spending-gap. This means either cutting trillions per year in government spending which would be impossible to do, or simply printing-up trillions and trillions of new dollars to pretend to ‘pay' those bills. This, in turn, virtually guarantees hyperinflation."
    4. THE ON-GOING POLITICAL PARALYSIS
    "The budgetary constraints which I have just discussed," said Nielson, "have all been of the ‘economic' variety but it is U.S. political constraints which are an even bigger obstacle in beginning to address the massive, triple-problem of U.S. insolvency: debts, deficits, and liabilities."
    Nielson pointed out that "decades of gerrymandering have transformed roughly 80% of U.S. electoral districts into the permanent holdings of one or the other of the two U.S. political parties. As such, the candidates of the favoured party are essentially guaranteed seat for life and this eliminates any incentive for them to produce positive results for their own constituents - other than bringing home the ‘pork'. As a result, partisan politics has taken preceden
13. [verwijderd] 10 augustus 2010 10:04

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    4. THE ON-GOING POLITICAL PARALYSIS
    "The budgetary constraints which I have just discussed," said Nielson, "have all been of the ‘economic' variety but it is U.S. political constraints which are an even bigger obstacle in beginning to address the massive, triple-problem of U.S. insolvency: debts, deficits, and liabilities."
    Nielson pointed out that "decades of gerrymandering have transformed roughly 80% of U.S. electoral districts into the permanent holdings of one or the other of the two U.S. political parties. As such, the candidates of the favoured party are essentially guaranteed seat for life and this eliminates any incentive for them to produce positive results for their own constituents - other than bringing home the ‘pork'. As a result, partisan politics has taken precedence over any, and all, other considerations in the U.S. and regretfully, the #1 rule of partisan politics is to never allow the party in power to accomplish anything good of significance.
    The one exception to this scenario of total indifference is the American Association for Retired Persons (AARP) which is not only the largest voting bloc in the U.S., but it is comprised of the only segment of the U.S. electorate which has a consistently high "turn-out" in every election. Not surprisingly, their two most important issues are Social Security and Medicare - the two social programs which are 100% certain to bankrupt the U.S. economy. Barring a complete "metamorphosis" of the entire U.S. political system, these "unfunded liabilities" are essentially carved in stone, since they are the only issues where doing something unpopular could threaten the security of the sitting politician and this leaves current and future U.S. governments with nothing but terrible options."
    Nielson maintained that the current situation demands that the government either:
    1. Fully ‘fund' all these entitlement programs by printing up countless trillions of new dollars - which is the only possible way to cover those entitlements 100% or
    2. Slash entitlements - and lose their own cushy positions - which would suck trillions of dollars out of the economy and result in a debt-implosion which would "make the death of the former Soviet Union look like a picnic."
    "If the U.S. does not commit to one or the other of these actions the U.S. will likely suffer the worst of both worlds - hyperinflationary depression", he concluded.
    5. THE PREFERENCE FOR HYPERINFLATION
    Nielson sees hyperinflation as more than just soaring prices. He sees it as "a crisis of confidence with respect to the currency in question, and the beginning of a death-spiral for that currency" going on to say: "When a currency starts to rapidly lose value the government is forced to print up vast quantities of new currency to subsidize the depleted wealth of its citizens - so they literally do not starve to death. Then, that excessive money printing leads to an even more rapid rate of devaluation for the currency, and this vicious circle gets more and more severe. In virtually every example in history, such currencies effectively go to zero."
    Nielson maintained that "hyperinflation likely is the inevitable course on which the U.S. is headed. Not only is the Federal Reserve under extreme pressure to continue to print countless trillions of new dollars, but hyperinflation ‘solves' the twin problems of massive, current debts and completely unpayable entitlement programs. The debts would get ‘paid' and the entitlements would be ‘funded'. That being said, the paper money used to do this would have only a minute fraction of its former value because, since hyperinflation causes a currency to move toward zero, all debts and liabilities expressed in that currency also become effectively worthless. As such, a very strong argument can be made that the U.S. will choose the informal ‘default' of a hyperinflation, rather than suffer a formal default - and a resultant debt-implosion."
    Nielson laid out in no uncertain terms that "History is clear: the devastation of hyperinflation will destroy the wealth of average Americans to an even greater degree than through suffering the ravages of a deflationary implosion - although the former would preserve the "paper empire" of the Wall Street banks who have been dictating U.S. economic policy. As such, is there really any doubt as to what direction the government, unduly influenced by the country's financial oligarchy, is going to take?"
    6. THE CURRENT DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT
    In order to delay inflation from ravaging the U.S. economy, however, Nielson believes that "the U.S. government is currently playing a very dangerous game - essentially starving the entire U.S. economy of capital. Bank lending is falling at the fastest rate in U.S. history because the banks are refusing to lend money to U.S. businesses, despite their promises to do the exact opposite. They prefer to keep most of the bail-out money ‘on deposit' at the Federal Reserve in what is literally nothing more than a ‘savings account'. That's where the Federal Reserve has been ‘borrowing' the money to buy up trillions of dollars of worthless U.S. mortgage bonds. The rest of the bankers' money is then used to ‘play the markets' with their proprietary trading", concluded Nielson.
    7. THE LACK OF A VIBRANT ECONOMY
    Nielson believes that those who insist that the ‘mighty' U.S. economy will ‘bounce back' as it always has in the past - that the U.S. will "grow" its way out of its huge debt/deficit crisis - don't seem to realize, with more than 50% of every new dollar of U.S. debt simply being interest payments on the old debt, that the U.S. economy will not be able to grow much, if at all - let alone at the above-average rate which is required just to produce enough revenues to service all that debt.
    The U.S. economy is supposedly growing at more than a 5% rate, which is equivalent to an "economic boom" for any economy other than China's, said Nielson but "to borrow an old line: "where's the beef?" U.S. government revenues for all three levels of government are plummeting downward at an accelerating rate, so how can the economy be "booming" if no one is generating any tax receipts for the government? The fact is that, with the U.S. carrying the heaviest debt-load in its history, and an ever-larger portion of every dollar consumed just paying interest, the overall U.S. economy would have to be operating at a higher rate of activity than has been ‘normal' in the past just to achieve average growth. Can anyone really suggest that the U.S. economy is currently stronger than normal?"
    A DEBT TRAP IN THE MAKING
    Nielson concluded his remarks by saying, "With the U.S. economy currently carrying over $60 trillion in total public/private debt just raising U.S. interest rates only 1% would drain an extra $600 billion per year out of the U.S. economy in additional interest payments - an equivalent drop of 5% in U.S. GDP - and that would be the case even before factoring in the ‘multiplier effect' of sucking that much money out of the economy - and every 1% hike would inflict a similar, but compounded, amount of damage on the U.S. economy. Frankly, it is very likely that even a 1% increase in current U.S. interest rates would be enough to send the U.S. economy into an immediate deflationary spiral."
    CONCLUSION
    Nielson concluded in another article I wrote recently about his views that, "In a deflationary implosion or a hyperinflation scenario, some (and perhaps all) pap
14. [verwijderd] 10 augustus 2010 10:05

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    CONCLUSION
    Nielson concluded in another article I wrote recently about his views that, "In a deflationary implosion or a hyperinflation scenario, some (and perhaps all) paper currencies will go to zero. In contrast... gold and silver will represent the ultimate "stores of value" - and thus the best protection from the events which lie ahead." All the more reason, given Nielson's opening remarks that, "The U.S. is in an untenable position - between a rock and a hard place - in an inescapable debt trap - where the options are, at best, dire" that we "ride out the storm in a boat (portfolio) laden with gold." .
    *Source
    Lorimer Wilson is the Editor of both www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com. He can be reached at editor@munknee.com
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
15. [verwijderd] 16 augustus 2010 20:46

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    Goud blijft stijgen, record dit jaar komt weer in zicht met opnieuw een hogere bodem.
    
    Spaanse banken hebben een recordbedrag van 110 miljard bij de ECB "geleend" in Juli.
    De persen staan weer volop te draaien, misschien doet HP het beter vanwege een tekort aan drukinkt....
    
    Gr.SimonX.
    
    
16. voda 16 augustus 2010 20:50

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    quote:

    SimonX schreef:

    Goud blijft stijgen, record dit jaar komt weer in zicht met opnieuw een hogere bodem.
    
    Spaanse banken hebben een recordbedrag van 110 miljard bij de ECB "geleend" in Juli.
    De persen staan weer volop te draaien, misschien doet HP het beter vanwege een tekort aan drukinkt....
    
    Gr.SimonX.
    
    

    Idd, goud blijft stijgen, daarom vandaag maar deze munt aangeschaft. :-)
    

    Bijlage:
17. [verwijderd] 16 augustus 2010 20:53

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    quote:

    SimonX schreef:

    Goud blijft stijgen, record dit jaar komt weer in zicht met opnieuw een hogere bodem.
    
    Spaanse banken hebben een recordbedrag van 110 miljard bij de ECB "geleend" in Juli.
    De persen staan weer volop te draaien, misschien doet HP het beter vanwege een tekort aan drukinkt....
    
    Gr.SimonX.
    

    Inderdaad ziet er goed uit voor goud. Op TA gebied is het plaatje kloppend (close boven 50 DMA en vervolgens boven de 1220/1225).
    Nu het vervolg graag.
    
    gr postzak
18. [verwijderd] 16 augustus 2010 21:10

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    Komt zeker met al dat gestrooi van Helikopter BEN en de SOOS.
    
    GrSimonX.
19. [verwijderd] 13 september 2010 10:36

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    What's Holding Gold Back?
    
    By Benzinga Staff
    Created 09/10/2010 - 11:13am
    by Peter Schiff
    
    [1]Gold first broke $1,200 on December 2, 2009; nine months later, instead of witnessing the birth of the full-on gold boom I have long anticipated, the yellow metal has gained a modest 4%. Fortunately, it has spent the summer solidly above $1,150, which should put to rest the claim that we are seeing an exponential gold bubble like we saw in 1980. And those waiting for the "big pullback" to $8-900 might be seeing the futility in their cause. But I never doubted the strength of this secular bull market. In fact, I still maintain that gold is grossly undervalued. So, what's holding gold back?
    
    First, it's important to account for the season. While everyone is at the beach, on their boats, or switching apartments, very few are out buying gold. June and July have always been low-volume months in the gold market. August tends to pick up a bit, and then by September, we're off to the races. The fact that gold hasn't had a major pullback this summer is very bullish for the fall.
    
    But the bigger factor affecting gold's price is the US bond bubble. Spooked by global market volatility, and deceived by the Fed's continued intervention to keep bond yields farcically low, private investors seem to have made a 'flight to safety' into Treasuries. In the past, this may have been a prudent move; but today, the government bond market is about as safe as walking alone at night in downtown Detroit.
    
    Despite massive capital inflows, the US dollar is losing ground to the yen, Swiss franc, Aussie dollar, loonie, yuan -- and gold. The state of our public finances is extremely weak. In the FY2010 budget, the federal government is spending 49% more than it is taking in revenue per year, adding to a national debt that is now 98.5% of GDP. Compare this to Greece, which is spending 33.5% more than revenue and has a debt of 113% of GDP. And the political climate here is just as hostile to even the mention of austerity. Unlike the EU, the US has guaranteed the ongoing viability of mortgage holders, major corporations, the states, and its own bloated social programs. Unlike Japan, the citizens can't be persuaded to shoulder these burdens because they are broke too.
    
    If the ratings agencies were honest, they'd rate US debt as 'junk.' Of course, the first characteristic of a bubble is that the vast majority can't recognize that it is one. Bubbles depend on confidence to grow, and quickly pop when that confidence disappears. The People's Bank of China, the #1 holder of US debt, has spent the summer quietly selling Treasuries. Japanese holders of US bonds (#2 in the world) are getting clobbered as the yen surges. This could be the beginning of the end of the US bond bubble. When it collapses, private investors, institutions, and central banks will be trampling on each other trying to reach the exit.
    
    Many analysts think that a coming wave of consumer price deflation is going to upset this forecast. Under this scenario, falling prices for real estate, commodities, stocks, and even precious metals would leave investors with little choice but to accept the near-zero interest but guaranteed return on principal that Treasuries provide. However, Fed Chairman Bernanke has pledged to paper the world with new dollars if he sees so much as an hint of deflation. This is a virtual guarantee, from the only man with the power to make it, that Treasuries will be a bad bet under his tenure and that the dollar will fall relative to gold. Gold will be the real safe haven.
    
    We saw gold had its big move up when naturally skeptical private investors dumped soft assets in the wake of the credit crunch. In other words, the smart money is already in gold. Now, we are going to see the slow hiss of investors escaping the Treasury bubble for gold, until the big burst that sends all commodity prices into the stratosphere. Goldman Sachs commodities analysts said as much in a recent research report, anticipating a spot price of $1,300 by the end of this year. Buyers of gold futures are betting that it will go ever higher by then, to $1,500.
    
    I maintain, based on historical comparisons, that the bottom of this depression will likely see the dow/gold ratio hit 1:1. This means that we are either in for a major decline in the Dow (unlikely) or an unprecedented rise in gold (likely). The US bond bubble is just like its predecessors in real estate and tech -- tedious to wait out but quick to blow up. Gold may be holding back now, but when the markets start to move, you better hope you chose the right safe haven.
    
    You are not watching this post, click to start watching
    [2]
    Bonds Futures Market Update Markets
    Benzinga is a news network that provides market moving financial news and opinions to traders and investors. It features opinions from experts in industry while also covering the overall news of the day.
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    Source URL: www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/10/09/...
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?
    
20. [verwijderd] 15 september 2010 16:25

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    Gold (GC : NASDAQ : US$1269.90), Net Change: 22.80, % Change: 1.83%, Volume: 157,130
    Another day, another all-time record for gold. Prices surged to new all-time record highs above US$1,270 an ounce in as the U.S. dollar fell to 15-year lows against the Japanese yen. Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan won a party election, which messaged to the markets that Japanese intervention to weaken its currency was less likely. Gold also got a boost from the euro's slide following German data suggested that Europe's biggest economy will slow in the coming months. Meantime, Goldman Sachs (GS) said the Fed may announce a new round of quantitative easing as early as November. That’s right the Fed is printing more money. There is a quote that we love coming back to from David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, said not to long ago that, "Gold is no longer trading just as part of the resource sector but is now taking on the characteristics of a currency...So gold is no government’s liability and the shape and shift in its supply curve is the shape would seem to be a little easier to make out than fiat currency. We may end up being overly conservative on our peak gold price forecast of $3,000 an ounce."
    
    If you don't trust GOLD,the only asset with a 6000 year track record, do you trust the logic of taking a $1,000 pine tree, cutting it up, turning it to pulp, putting some ink on it, and then calling it one billion $ dollars?