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Crucell Terug naar discussie overzicht

Wyeth in gesprek over overname Crucell

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  1. forum rang 9 josti5 13 januari 2009 16:29
    quote:

    TraderRon schreef:

    BAH BAH BAH Hekel aan al die onzekerheid.
    Daarvan zijn de HH Koersbepalers en Bedrijvenuitverkopers zich heel goed bewust...
  2. TraderRon 13 januari 2009 16:47
    quote:

    Blondy@home schreef:

    Wat had je dan gedacht, dat de deal in drie dagen geregeld was?
    ja zou lekker worden......
    Tuurlijk niet! Blijf ook rustig zetten. Maar heb er nog wel een hekel aan ;-)
  3. [verwijderd] 13 januari 2009 20:32
    3rd UPDATE: Elan Launches Strategic Review Of Business

    Last update: 1/13/2009 1:46:29 PM(Updates with Biogen and Wyeth comments, additional details, stock price updates)
    By Ragnhild Kjetland and Elena Berton Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    Irish drug-maker Elan Corporation PLC (ELN) Tuesday said it is seeking new funding to boost and commercialize its drug pipeline, launching a strategic review that could lead to a sale or merger of the company. Elan, which has faced investor criticism of its strategy following concerns about the safety of multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri and poor results from an experimental Alzheimer's drug, said Citigroup Global Markets Inc. will start a review that could lead to a minority investment, a strategic alliance, a merger or a sale.
    The loss-making and indebted company needs fresh funds to develop new drugs. Last month it said it was cutting a number of jobs, "refining" commercial activities for Tysabri and closing its offices in New York and Tokyo to free up more investment for its product pipeline.

    Elan shares, which have lost around 64% of their value in the last 12 months, closed at EUR6.08 in Dublin Tuesday, giving the company a market capitalization of around EUR3.1 billion. The drop in its share over the past 12 months came on bad news about Tysabri and Alzheimer's treatment bapineuzumab, though its share price has risen over 40% so far in 2009 on speculation Elan might become a takeover target. There have been several recent deals in which large pharmaceutical companies have acquired biotechnology companies to boost their own pipeline of drugs.

    Most recently, Dutch biotech Crucell NV (CRXL) said it is talking about a takeover by U.S. drugs group Wyeth (WYE), while Switzerland's Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) is trying to acquire the shares of Genetech it doesn't already own.
    Pfizer Inc. (PFE) has been touted in markets as a potential suitor for Elan, while U.S. companies Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) and Wyeth are its partners on Tysabri and bapineuzumab, respectively. Because its valuable assets - Tysabri and bapineuzumab - are partnered with Biogen and Wyeth, analysts say a takeover of Elan may prove tricky for other companies.

    Also, Elan previously has disclosed that it is a party to agreements that may discourage a takeover attempt. For example, Biogen has the option to buy the rights to Tysabri in the event Elan undergoes a change of control. Also, Biogen is subject to certain limitations in acquiring Elan through June 2010. If Elan or Wyeth undergo a change of control, their agreement permits the acquirer to assume the role of the acquired party in most circumstances.
    And Wyeth is restricted from seeking to acquire Elan in certain circumstances. A Wyeth spokesman said the company doesn't comment on market rumors or speculation, and declined to cite the circumstances under which Wyeth would be restricted from acquiring Elan.

    When asked about Biogen's possible interest in Elan at a JPMorgan health-care conference in San Francisco, Biogen Chief Executive Jim Mullen responded: "You have heard me many times over the years be very, very bullish on Tysabri, so we think it is a huge product. "Having said that, I think we need to take a step back and see what unfolds at Elan," he said.

    Analysts at Canaccord, who have upgraded the stock to buy from sell, said they don't see an outright takeover of the Dublin-based drug maker as a realistic prospect in the near term. Elan and Biogen have joint rights to Tysabri, which is regarded as one of the most effective treatments for MS, a chronic, often disabling disease that attacks the central nervous system. However, four patients taking the drug have developed a rare and often deadly brain infection since Tysabri returned to the market in 2006, following its withdrawal in February 2005. The drug was withdrawn only three months after its launch after it was reported that three out of the 3,000 patients who had taken the drug in combination with another MS treatment had developed the infection. In total, seven patients have developed the condition, called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy.

    Elan's chairman, Kyran McLaughlin, said the company had decided it was an appropriate time to explore alternative paths forward, "given our many scientific, clinical and commercial opportunities and the capabilities of the industry participants that surround us." Elan said it doesn't plan to update the status of the review until a definitive agreement is entered into or when the process is "otherwise completed." Ross McEvoy, an analyst at Bloxham Stockbrokers, said Elan doesn't necessarily need to find a solution immediately and wouldn't be hurt by making a decision at the end of the year. McEvoy has a $13 price target and a buy recommendation on the stock. In a separate statement, Elan denied a report by Bloomberg news that the duration of Phase 3 trials for its Alzheimer drug bapineuzumab has changed. Elan said the program is still expected to last 18 months.

    Company Web site: www.elan.com -By Ragnhild Kjetland and Elena Berton, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-207-842-9268; ragnhild.kjetland@dowjones.com (Peter Loftus and Thomas Gryta contributed to the story.) (END)

    Dow Jones NewswiresJanuary 13, 2009 13:46 ET (18:46 GMT)
  4. [verwijderd] 13 januari 2009 21:59
    quote:

    ressiva schreef:

    Het laatste jaar heeft iedere overnemer zich uiteindelijk teruggetrokken, dus pas maar op!
    Lekker terugtrekken! Koersdoels >100,--
  5. flosz 13 januari 2009 22:16
    quote:

    aossa schreef:

    "Any successful bidder will need to conduct delicate surgery, working around or unwinding Crucell’s existing partnerships with Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline and DSM."

    www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3da3bb1a-e1a6-11dd...

    GSK !
    Weet FT.com soms meer ?
    Dank aossa!

    Drugs for sale

    Crucell, the Dutch vaccines group, has injected fresh life into the ever-more vibrant new year prospects for pharmaceutical deals, with an extra sting in the tail. The financial crisis has created a buyer’s market among cash-rich but product-poor large pharmaceuticals companies, as many of their underfunded biotech brethren rush to seek saviours as an alternative to collapse.

    The growing quantity and diversity of companies in the sector that are on the hunt for purchasers has been increasing sharply in recent weeks and could threaten to deflate purchase prices. Elan, the neuroscience business, yesterday became the latest to raise the prospect of a sale, with the announcement of a “strategic business review”. Two European generic drugs groups – Actavis and Ratiopharm – are also coming up for sale.

    But the share price jump at Crucell, after its revelation last week of “friendly discussions” with Wyeth of the US, suggests that for those with decent wares, the downturn still offers a seller’s market for attractive assets.

    High-priced, patent-protected vaccines have become a tempting new niche for the sector, with Novartis, AstraZeneca and Pfizer all moving into the field, alongside existing players including GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis and Merck. Crucell would offer Wyeth a chance to maintain its weight and to diversify its portfolio. Then again, now that the Dutch group has flagged its interest in a takeover, Sanofi-Aventis and its rivals may come back with counter offers.

    Any successful bidder will need to conduct delicate surgery, working around or unwinding Crucell’s existing partnerships with Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline and DSM.
  6. yinx 13 januari 2009 22:35
    quote:

    aossa schreef:

    "Any successful bidder will need to conduct delicate surgery, working around or unwinding Crucell’s existing partnerships with Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, GlaxoSmithKline and DSM."

    www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3da3bb1a-e1a6-11dd...

    GSK !
    Weet FT.com soms meer ?
    Of minder? En doelen ze nog op het ex malariapartnership.

    In elk samenwerkingsverband/jointventure staat in het contract wat te doen bij een overname door of van X.

    Zo ook in de samenwerkingsverbanden/jointventures van Crucell met partij DSM, Novartis, Sanofi, Percivia, Merck, Astra Zenica, CSL, enz.

    Meer moet je er volgens mij niet achterzoeken.

    YinX
  7. gogogoo 14 januari 2009 16:04
    Full Earnings Season Expectations for Big Pharma (LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, WYE)
    January 13, 2009 · Filed Under General

    Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) is on deck with its earnings report expected on January 28 or January 29. Analysts are expecting $0.79 EPS on revenues of $5.83 billion, which compares to $0.78 EPS and $5.76 billion in revenues from the year before. Wyeth is going to be difficult to evaluate with the pending acquisition talks of Dutch vaccine maker Crucell NV (NASDAQ: CRXL). The company is also expecting the bulk of its growth ahead to come from non-traditional drug sales. So look for more “products” and for other possible acquisition hints if it holds that line.
    www.biohealthinvestor.com/2009/01/
    full-earnings-season-expectations-for-big-pharma-lly-jnj-mrk-pfe-wye.html
  8. [verwijderd] 14 januari 2009 18:15
    Wyeth Moves to Broaden Prevnar: Prepares Offer for Crucell
    By Cole Werble

    Wyeth is looking to build a broad franchise around its $2.7 billion vaccine pillar, Prevnar. The Dutch firm Crucell, one of the largest remaining independents in the vaccine field, confirmed Jan. 7 that it is in preliminary acquisition discussions with Wyeth.


    Wyeth is looking to build a broad franchise around its $2.7 billion vaccine pillar, Prevnar. The Dutch firm Crucell, one of the largest remaining independents in the vaccine field, confirmed Jan. 7 that it is in preliminary acquisition discussions with Wyeth.

    Crucell would supplement Wyeth's narrow, but lucrative, vaccine franchise with products against hepatitis A, hepatitis B and typhoid fever.

    The sixth-largest vaccines company in the world, Crucell produces a collection of vaccines, including Quinvaxem, co-developed with Novartis against five childhood diseases, Hepavax-Gene, a recombinant hepatitis B vaccine, Vivotif, an oral anti-typhoid vaccine, and Epaxal, an aluminum-free hepatitis A vaccine.

    Crucell also has assembled proprietary technology for next generation vaccines and proteins, which could be very useful to Wyeth's future efforts to build around the Prevnar franchise. Prevnar itself was created from a technology deal that Wyeth accomplished about two decades ago with the developers of the vaccine conjugation technologies.

    Crucell has a PER C6 technology for cell culture production. MAbstract is used for the discovery of antibodies binding to proteins, viruses, cells and tissues, and STAR is used for increasing production of recombinant antibodies and therapeutic proteins on mammalian cell lines.

    The Prevnar conjugated pneumococcal franchise is flourishing. After flattening out in the U.S. recently at a healthy $1.2 billion annual sales level, the product has begun growing strongly in international markets, for which total 2008 sales should exceed the US total by more than $100 million. Prevnar is Wyeth's third largest product behind Effexor and Enbrel. Prevnar has become a pillar propping Wyeth up as it faces the loss of traditional small molecule blockbusters (Protonix, Effexor XR) to generic competition.

    News of the offer to Crucell breaks just as Wyeth is starting on the circuit of high visibility presentations to the financial community that kick off each year. Even if the deal is never consummated, just the buzz around the offer and the sign that it sends about Wyeth's desire to support the Prevnar franchise will be important to the company.

    [Editor's note: The RPM Report will host a webinar Jan. 29 on the outlook for vaccine developers under the Obama administration. For more information, visit: www.windhover.com/ezine/html/ac0109-2...

    If Wyeth can succeed in building a broad franchise around Prevnar, the company itself would become a more attractive target if a new round of major consolidation occurs within pharma.

    Bernstein Research analyst Tim Anderson agreed in a Jan. 8 research note. "If anything, strengthening its own vaccine capabilities would make Wyeth an even more desirable company to a potential suitor," he said. Pfizer is one of the prominent companies with only a minor position in vaccine development currently but a stated desire to play in the field.

    Wyeth's recent drug launches like the antibiotic Tygacil, the oncologic Torisel, the antidepressant Pristiq and Relistor, a treatment for opioid-induced constipation, offer significantly smaller market opportunities than its current billion dollar brands. There is also a cloud over Wyeth's featured R&D effort in Alzheimer's, bapineuzumab, where uncertainty about the meaning of test results plagues the potential for the product.

    Wyeth's vaccine pipeline is currently focused on Prevnar 13, a next generation 13-valent conjugate vaccine that would offer broader protection versus the 7-valent Prevnar; it's targeted for a BLA filing in the first quarter of 2009. A meningococcal group B vaccine is in Phase II development.

    Crucell has other partners; bidding war possible

    Wyeth's management is continuing to talk about broadening the company beyond a traditional pharma profile. During a Goldman Sachs Healthcare conference Jan. 7, CEO Bernard Poussot re-confirmed that strategy, noting that within four to five years, 75 percent of Wyeth's revenues will be non-pharma-generated, meaning they will stem from biotech, vaccines and consumer products. About 60 percent of Wyeth's revenues come from non-pharma areas today.

    Poussot also said Wyeth is in a position to be more aggressive when it comes to acquisitions, particularly after a nationwide settlement related to product liability litigation involving its former weight loss drugs Redux and Pondimin has removed an albatross.

    "We are over this, and therefore, we can now mobilize those resources and be much, much more proactive," Poussot said.

    Crucell has a network of relationships with other vaccine companies that could complicate the deal or lead to a counter-offer. Crucell has deals with Merck, Sanofi-Aventis and GlaxoSmithKline among others. With Sanofi-Pasteur, Crucell is collaborating to develop and commercialize a next-generation rabies biological to replace traditional serum-derived products as an adjunct to rabies vaccines ("The Pink Sheet" DAILY, Jan. 3, 2008).

    Crucell's 2007 revenues were $203.8 million. A report in The Wall Street Journal floated a buyout price of $1.35 billion as a likely target, about six times sales. As of Sept. 30, Wyeth had $11.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand.

    Novartis' 2006 acquisition of the significantly larger vaccines maker Chiron cost $5.4 billion, about three times Chiron's 2005 revenues of $1.92 billion ("The Pink Sheet" DAILY, April 3, 2006). Earlier this year, Sanofi acquired the vaccines firm Acambis for £276 million ($549 million) ("The Pink Sheet" DAILY, July 25, 2008).

    Ironically, Wyeth may also rejoin the flu vaccine business with Crucell. That's an area that Wyeth has dropped twice during the last decade. In 2002, Wyeth shut down its injectable flu vaccine business.

    After exiting the injectable flu field, Wyeth made a short-lived attempt to outflank the category through a joint marketing arrangement with Medimmune for FluMist, the nasal flu vaccine. Wyeth dropped that in 2004 after one year of marketing.

    Wyeth's exit of the flu vaccine business created an opening that let Novartis begin its effort to become a top tier worldwide vaccine business.

    -Jessica Merrill (j.merrill@elsevier.com) and Cole Werble (c.werble@elsevier.com)

    therpmreport.com/Free/37e80796-919a-4...
  9. [verwijderd] 14 januari 2009 18:31
    quote:

    schreef:

    A report in The Wall Street Journal floated a buyout price of $1.35 billion as a likely target, about six times sales.
    6 × de omzet van 2007! Als dit de formule is dan natuurlijk sowieso 6 × omzet 2008, oftewel € 1,7 miljard (> €25,85), maar we beginnen pas na te denken bij 6 × omzet 2009. En dan hebben we het tenminste over 6 × € 350 MM = € 2,1 miljard (> €32,30).
  10. klein_duimpje 14 januari 2009 18:45
    quote:

    wilb52 schreef:

    correctie

    geen winst maar omzet!
    Even blijven opletten allemaal. Er wordt gesproken van "revenues" en van "sales". De betekenis van deze twee is volgens mij "opbrengst" en "verkoop".
    K.D.
  11. [verwijderd] 14 januari 2009 19:37
    Rockefeller,

    dus kunnen we verwachten dat deze deal in kannen en kruiken zal zijn voor het weekend.
    Of zullen we nog even moeten wachten, oh ja, mijn eerste bericht, en ja heb ook Crucell, maar dat gejojo.

    dutch_122

  12. [verwijderd] 14 januari 2009 22:29
    Is dit een optie?

    Even globaal

    Als men dan zo nodig omzet en winst uit producten zoekt

    Omzet
    220Mn 2008 productomzet
    ..10 omzet zeg 8 Mn nettowinst uit distributie voor derden
    -------------
    230 Mn omzet (Verwacht in 2009 280 Mn)


    Verkoop Berna SBL en BPC.
    Als de opbrengst 920 MN, 4x de omzet 2008 reëel is.
    Ongeveer 10 x de winst Een winst die mogelijk in 5 jaar meer dan verdubbeld met groeiende verkopen in China en andere grote regio's, mogelijk in 2010 in de USA.
    Sinds vorig jaar wordt Quinvaxem in een groeiend aantal individuele landen goedgekeurd.

    verkoop van de acquisities uit 2006 voor 920 Mn opent de weg naar de volgende mogelijkheid.

    Koop voor 500 Mn +/-25 à 30 Mn aandelen terug.
    Blijft over 420 Mn

    BACK 2 BASICS en......
    Gaan met die banaan

    Koop nog een paar goede wetenschappers voor het ontwikkelen van nieuwe producten.(Biosimilars)

    Terug naar 300 à 350 medewerkers

    Rest dan nog voor 2009
    1)35 à 40 Mn aandelen
    2)Een interessante pijplijn en Unieke technologieën

    3)200 Mn nu in kas + 420 Mn = 620 Mn in kas

    4)35 Mn omzet=bruto winst licenties en mijlpaalbetalingen
    5)10 Mn sevice fees
    6)..4 Mn subsidie omzet = bruto winst
    7)20 Mn rente

    Over +/- 4 jaar bijvoorbeeld:
    40 Mn productomzet uit Griepvaccins in Japan
    65 Mn antistoffencocktail tegen Rabies
    ..15 Mn servicefees

    -/-35 Mn cost of goods sold

    ..85 Mn bruto marge goods sold
    100 MN Royalty's Wyeth Sanofi, Ark, IQ e.a.
    ..60 Mn uit licenties en milestones incl. STAR
    10 Mn subsidie
    ----------
    255
    110 mn R&D en SG&A
    -----------
    145 Mn operationele winst
    20 Mn rente
    165 Mn netto resultaat

    € 4,12 à € 4,52 winst per aandeel
    bij 35 à 40 Mn uitstaande aandelen

    Prijs aandeel bij K/W +/-20
    80- à 90 euro.

    Laat intussen wat productie faciliteiten bouwen!

    Vraag aan deskundigen
    Is dit een reële optie?

    Louis





  13. [verwijderd] 14 januari 2009 22:42
    Nee. Dit is geen optie.

    Als je een cash cow hebt zonder dat je een andere "zekere" bron van inkomsten hebt doe je deze niet van de hand.

    ;-)
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