lucky14 schreef op 20 februari 2019 18:59:
Slotboom heeft daar in augustus 2018 iets over geschreven:
180820 PostNL | Beyond the Horizon
Description
Former Dutch soccer star Johan Cruijff once said "Sometimes something's got to happen before something is going to happen".
In our view the almost inevitable consolidation in mail could be that 'something'. Most investors will probably look at this from a synergies' perspective, which by itself could already trigger a strong re-rating of the PostNL shares.
Yet, there's this other 'something' as well; as in 'going to happen'.
A restored monopoly on the last mile for mail would only be a first step in our view. The roll out of e-cargo bikes pave the way for an integrated delivery model whereby parcels and mail will be combined. Together with the use of data, this will enable PostNL to transfer itself from a traditional logistics network operator into a data-driven powerhouse that forms an indispensable link between consumers and the sellers of products and services. This would truly transform the company into one best positioned to benefit from the e-commerce revolution. When properly executed this may even trigger a bigger re-rating on top of the consolidation in mail alone.
This is supported by the findings of a report issued by Accenture Consulting last year, which showed that the use of data could create a USD 400m value opportunity per annum for an average mail and parcel company.
It is clear that such a transformation will take years and therefore we have not even included that in our valuation. Yet, we did include a consolidation scenario as well as the first steps towards an integrated delivery model.
But even without this, the rerating potential on the back of a consolidation is huge: when doing the maths, we arrived at a fair value of EUR 4.75 per share.
Again, the most important one of our assumptions (consolidation) still has to turn into reality. So obviously, this represents a major risk factor that should not be ignored.
Nevertheless, there is a more than 65% gap between the current share price and our fair value assessment, which looks very compelling and could make it worthwhile taking this risk.