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CHTP - Chelsea Therapeutics International

1. [verwijderd] 29 mei 2014 15:08

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   Chelsea Therapeutics - Going Private Transaction Provides Significant Upside
   
   May. 28, 2014 9:00 AM ET |
   
   Summary
   •Chelsea Therapeutics currently trades slightly above the cash consideration of the proposed merger, and investors would be receiving contingent value rights (CVR) almost for free.
   •At a price of $0.1/CVR and potential expected payments of $1.5/CVR, investors could realize sizeable returns within the next 3 years if the sales targets for Northera are reached.
   •The market seems to be overly concerned about the transaction being cancelled (very unlikely to happen) and the sales milestones not being reached.
   
   Investment thesis
   
   Investment in Chelsea Therapeutics (CHTP) presents a very asymmetric risk/return opportunity. On 7th of May, the company announced a merger agreement and going private transaction with Lundbeck (OTCPK:HLUYY). CHTP investors will be receiving $6.44/share in cash (vs. current price of $6.54/share) plus contingent value rights that could result in payments of $1.5/share during the next three years. So the investment thesis boils down to paying $0.1 for a possibility to receive $1.5/share in the future. Thus, this transaction not only provides material potential upside for existing Chelsea Therapeutics' shareholders, but also gives a floor/downside protection just below the current share price.
   
   Details of the merger agreement
   
   Chelsea Therapeutics is a pharmaceutical company that recently got an accelerated FDA approval for its drug Northera (more about the drug, potential market size, etc. here). The drug is expected to be launched in 2014. Through the proposed merger, Lundbeck (a Danish pharmaceutical company) would gain the rights to Northera, and has indicated that the drug would fit nicely within its existing US neurology franchise.
   
   As part of the merger agreement, Lundbeck will commence a tender offer to purchase all outstanding shares of Chelsea Therapeutics for a purchase price consisting of $6.44/share in cash and contingent value right (CVR), which represents a contractual right to receive up to $1.5 per CVR upon achievement of certain sales milestones by Lundbeck. The transaction is expected to close in Q3 2014, and will be financed with existing Lundbeck cash.
   
   Currently, Chelsea Therapeutics shares trade at $6.54, just above the cash part of the offer. Thus, after the deal is closed, investors would get $6.44/share in cash, and the remaining investment in CVR would be only $0.1/CVR.
   
   CVR payments are structured to occur at $0.5 increments if:
   1.Net sales of Northera (excluding Asian markets) exceed $100m during 2015;
   2.Net sales of Northera (excluding Asian markets) exceed $200m during 2016;
   3.Net sales of Northera (excluding Asian markets) exceed $300m during 2017;
   
   The table below details the potential IRR that could result from this trade. I have assumed the initial cash distributions would be made in mid-October 2014, and the CVR payments would be triggered in February of the following year.
   
   
   
2. [verwijderd] 10 juni 2014 08:54

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   nog even jullie (huidige aandeelhouders) gedachten mbt de merger.
   
   de eerste aanmeldtermijn loop 20 juni af. (sterker nog bij Alex moet ik 18 juni aangeven of ik wil aanmelden, bij Todays kan dat tot de 20e). Gevoelsmatig wil ik pas op het laatst aanmelden want wie weet wat er nog gebeurd. Aan de andere kant kan je dan ook weer terug trekken al zou dat wel wat voeten in de aarde hebben.
   
   Als je je niet aanmeld, hou je de aandelen en is er een redelijk kans dat een paar weken later de merger alsnog doorgaat en je je aandelen moet inleveren tegen hetzelfde bod. Voordeel hiervan is dta er tijd gekocht wordt (miodrine, ema), nadeel is dat je je geld later krijgt.
   
   Ik ga uit van een cvr betaling van $1 (zeker als ema in de lucht komt), en het heeft dan ook pas zin, in mijn projectie, om de aandelen boven de 6.44+1-tijdkorting = 7.2 te verkopen. Nu acht ik de kans op dit soort koersen de komende 2 maanden niet zo erg groot, maar wat is jullie idee ? Gaan jullie aanmelden nu ? Wacht je om tijd te kopen ? Ben benieuwd.
   
   Winx.
3. [verwijderd] 12 juni 2014 13:48

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   June 12, 2014
   
   Chelsea Therapeutics Presents Efficacy and Safety Data for NORTHERA at International Congress of Parkinson's Disease and Movement Disorders
   
   
   
   -First Presentation of Integrated Data Analyses From Two Pivotal Trials
   
   -Data Shows Statistically Significant Improvement in Symptoms of NOH vs. Placebo
   
   CHARLOTTE, N.C. and STOCKHOLM, Sweden, June 12, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Chelsea Therapeutics International, Ltd. (Nasdaq:CHTP) today announced the presentation of an integrated analysis of data from two pivotal multicenter, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trials showing that NORTHERA™ (droxidopa) had demonstrated an acceptable safety profile and demonstrated a statistically significant difference in efficacy compared to placebo for improving the symptoms of neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (NOH) in a population comprised chiefly of patients with Parkinson's Disease (PD). The results were presented at the 18th International Congress of Parkinson's Disease and Movement Disorders (MDS) in Stockholm, Sweden, June 8-12, 2014.
   
   NORTHERA was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Feb. 18, 2014, for the treatment of orthostatic dizziness, lightheadedness, or the "feeling that you are about to black out" in adult patients with symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension caused by primary autonomic failure (Parkinson's disease, multiple system atrophy, and pure autonomic failure), dopamine beta-hydroxylase deficiency, and non-diabetic autonomic neuropathy. Effectiveness beyond 2 weeks of treatment has not been demonstrated. The continued effectiveness of NORTHERA should be assessed periodically. Symptomatic NOH is an orphan condition that affects an estimated 80,000 to 150,000 patients in the United States. As part of its New Drug Application, Chelsea submitted data from pivotal studies 301 and 306 in support of the safety and efficacy of NORTHERA. For MDS, data from these studies were integrated, analyzed and presented together, marking the first time these data were presented at a major medical meeting. MDS draws more than 4,000 physicians and medical professionals from more than 80 countries to view more than 1,600 scientific abstracts submitted by clinicians from around the world.
   
   The posters, titled Integrated Efficacy of Droxidopa for Neurogenic Orthostatic Hypotension and Integrated Safety of Droxidopa for Neurogenic Orthostatic Hypotension, were presented at the Parkinson's disease dysautonomia Poster Session at MDS.
   
   "Overall, 359 patients contributed data to the integrated efficacy analyses, 174 randomized to droxidopa and 185 to placebo. Patients on NORTHERA self-reported more improvements in NOH symptoms of dizziness/lightheadedness, feeling faint or the 'feeling that you are going to black out' compared to patients on placebo," said Robert A. Hauser, MD, Professor of Neurology, Molecular Pharmacology, and Physiology, and Director of the Parkinson's Disease and Movement Disorders Center, University of South Florida. "Patients on NORTHERA also showed improvements in standing systolic blood pressure at one week compared to patients on placebo."
   
   Dr. Hauser was the lead author on the integrated efficacy poster.
   
   Horacio Kaufmann, MD, Professor of Neurology and Medicine at New York University and Director of the Dysautonomia Center at NYU Langone Medical Center, was the lead author on the safety poster. "Droxidopa demonstrated an acceptable safety profile across these two pivotal induction design trials in patients in NOH, and data shows that adverse events were consistent across studies 301 and 306 and consistent with other studies of droxidopa," he said.
   
4. [verwijderd] 18 juni 2014 09:04

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   vandaag laatste mogelijkheid inschrijven bij sommige brokers, vrijdag sluiting.
   maar neem aan dat er niet veel aandeelhouders meer over zijn.
   
5. [verwijderd] 20 augustus 2015 15:00

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   Lundbeck, de koper van Northera stond nog op mijn watchlijst. Zag aan de koers vandaag dat ik te laat was.
   
   Een potentieel goed deel is o.a. onderstaande opmerking uit de earnings call.
   Ben nog in het bezit van CVR´s, dus wie weet komt er toch nog wat binnen op Chelsea. 2015 zal het overigens wel niet worden met een H1 2015 omzet van 22 (q4 14 ?; q1 15 6; q2 15 16) miljoen usd, maar goed beginnende gebruikers zijn blijvende gebruikers.
   
   We've seen a lot of interest from physicians, and the feedback that we've had from the patients so far is also very positive. But we should remember its early days with Northera. But, so far, I feel comfortable that we will reach our expectations.
6. [verwijderd] 10 februari 2016 11:35

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   Northera for the treatment of symptomatic neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (nOH) was made available in the US market in September 2014 and the commercial launch commenced in October 2014. Sales from Northera reached DKK 192 million in the fourth quarter of the year and the level of new patient enrolments remains strong.
   
   Jaaromzet 475 DKK = 70 USD.
   
   CVR payments are structured to occur at $0.5 increments if:
   1.Net sales of Northera (excluding Asian markets) exceed $100m during 2015;
   2.Net sales of Northera (excluding Asian markets) exceed $200m during 2016;
   3.Net sales of Northera (excluding Asian markets) exceed $300m during 2017;
   
   weer een jaartje wachten dus.
7. [verwijderd] 20 juni 2016 09:43

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   Q1
   
   Northera sales reached DKK 199 million, up 371% (346% in local currency) (192 DKK in Q4). Dit jaar dient 1300DKK te worden gehaald voordat er wordt begonnen met uitkeren. Hmmm, de cvr´s kunnen op de plank tot 2017 vermoed ik.
   
   aanvullend:
   In early May 2016, Lundbeck NA Ltd (formerly known as Chelsea Therapeutics, Inc.) received a subpoena from the US Attorney’s Office in Boston Massachusetts, relating to an investigation of Northera and Xenazine sales, marketing and related practices. Lundbeck LLC, USA is cooperating with this investigation.
8. [verwijderd] 28 september 2016 10:48

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   H1 Northera® sales reached DKK 449 million, up 203% (201% in local currency)
   Q2= 250 => verkoop stagneert tov Q1. Mag een wonder gebeuren willen de cvr´s in 2018 nog iets uitkeren.
9. [verwijderd] 9 augustus 2017 21:30

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   H1 Northera® sales reached DKK 716 million = 112 million usd. meer dan 1400 miljoen DKK sales in H2 nodig om tot een uitkering te komen.
   Gevalletje kansloos ben ik bang.
10. [verwijderd] 22 februari 2018 17:06

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    Revenue of Northera® increased by 51% to DKK 1,644 million (55% in local currency)in 2017.
    
    de cvr´s mogen door de papierversnipperaar. Doelen lagen steeds 1 jaar te vroeg.