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OCI - 2020

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Ruval
0
quote:

eduardo3105 schreef op 21 december 2020 18:57:

[...]

En dat ziet er goed uit voor de opening morgen
BID 15,68
ASK 15,75
Waar kan ik dit vinden?
Appel72
0
quote:

eduardo3105 schreef op 21 december 2020 18:57:

[...]

En dat ziet er goed uit voor de opening morgen
BID 15,68
ASK 15,75
Zegt niet zoveel, morgen rond 08:50 a 8:55 geeft het een eerlijker beeld.
Niet op 1 dag kijken maar naar komende maanden.
[verwijderd]
1
Mensen.

Hou gewoon op over die tradegate.

Totaal niet noemenswaardig.

De enige reden om dit te gaan noemen is of om.de koers te promoten in de richting van wat je hem wil hebben met het idee dat je door te posten daadwerkelijk invloed hebt op de koers.... nee, of om gewoon reclame te maken voor dat platform.

Inderdaad vlak voor opening euronext is een indicatie en zelfs dat kan met een beetje volume aardig verzet worden.
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

R0ME0 schreef op 21 december 2020 23:53:

Mensen.

Hou gewoon op over die tradegate.

Totaal niet noemenswaardig.

De enige reden om dit te gaan noemen is of om.de koers te promoten in de richting van wat je hem wil hebben met het idee dat je door te posten daadwerkelijk invloed hebt op de koers.... nee, of om gewoon reclame te maken voor dat platform.

Inderdaad vlak voor opening euronext is een indicatie en zelfs dat kan met een beetje volume aardig verzet worden.
Precies duimpje
de schaatser
0
Ik zag op de site van Simply Wall st de bedrijfs analyse van Oci.
Zij pretenderen hun analyse's om de 6 uur te verversen.
Uitkomst: 40,3 % ONDERSCHATTING VAN DE KOERS VAN DE REEELE WAARDE.
DE WINST ZAL NAAR VERWACHTING 108,77 % GROEIEN
ADEQUATE BALANS MET REDELIJK GROEIPOTENTIEEL.
Op basis van deze gegevens zeggen zij, dat het aandeel een koers van 26 euro waard is.
Dit aandeel wordt het pareltje van 2021.
Krentenmenten
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quote:

de schaatser schreef op 22 december 2020 11:45:

Ik zag op de site van Simply Wall st de bedrijfs analyse van Oci.
Zij pretenderen hun analyse's om de 6 uur te verversen.
Uitkomst: 40,3 % ONDERSCHATTING VAN DE KOERS VAN DE REEELE WAARDE.
DE WINST ZAL NAAR VERWACHTING 108,77 % GROEIEN
ADEQUATE BALANS MET REDELIJK GROEIPOTENTIEEL.
Op basis van deze gegevens zeggen zij, dat het aandeel een koers van 26 euro waard is.
Dit aandeel wordt het pareltje van 2021.
Als het allemaal zo simpel zou zijn, dan had goldman sachs niet bestaan.....
de schaatser
0
quote:

Krentenmenten schreef op 22 december 2020 11:49:

[...] Als het allemaal zo simpel zou zijn, dan had goldman sachs niet bestaan.....
Het gaat om de indicatie. En die zegt dat Oci gezond is.

Niet alles zo letterlijk nemen.
BultiesBrothers
0
Tot nu toe een rustig dagje. We herstelden gister gelukkig volledig, alleen vandaag doen we niet mee met de stijging. Alsnog YTD negatief helaas..
BultiesBrothers
0
Wanneer verwachten jullie een update over verkoop methanol? Men zei ergens in H1 2021. Zal dit gedeeld worden bij kwartaalcijfers? Hoe eerder hoe beter natuurlijk, want methanol is al dusdanig gestegen dat ze het niet voor een habbekrats weg zullen doen
Ruval
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quote:

BultiesBrothers schreef op 22 december 2020 12:09:

Wanneer verwachten jullie een update over verkoop methanol? Men zei ergens in H1 2021. Zal dit gedeeld worden bij kwartaalcijfers? Hoe eerder hoe beter natuurlijk, want methanol is al dusdanig gestegen dat ze het niet voor een habbekrats weg zullen doen
Ik verwacht bij de Q4 / jaarcijfers medio februari. Indien er concreet nieuws te melden is zullen ze dat uiteraard eerder (moeten) doen.
jessebrown
1
En weer positief nieuws voor de sector.

Electricity, gas shortages hit China fertilizer output
Published date: 22 December 2020

Share:
The Chinese fertilizer industry is facing shortages of natural gas as well as potential electricity supply restrictions this winter, affecting output.

The natural gas supply shortage has resulted in widespread shutdowns of gas-based ammonia and urea plants since the start of this month.

Argus estimates that gas-based urea output dropped to 12,300 t/d this week, down by 70pc from mid-November. Current urea operating rates are at around 120,000 t/d, a fall of 17pc from mid-November.

The production cut has sent the urea price higher, despite it being the off-season period.

The domestic prilled urea price rose from 1,750-1,760 yuan/t ($267-269/t) ex-works bagged on 3 December to Yn1,780-1,810/t ex-works bagged this week in Shandong. Prices have risen even more sharply in southwest China — to over Yn1,900/t ex-works from Yn1,650/t ex-works — where the gas shortages have led to some of the most severe production cuts.

In contrast to the urea market, the gas supply shortages have had a much more limited impact on phosphate and potash fertilizers, with just a few isolated disruptions reported.

Electricity consumption has been higher than expected so far in December, because of cold winter weather, a strong recovery in Chinese industrial activity and the approaching end of the 13th five-year plan period, which is prompting government bodies to strive to meet their targets.

Electricity restrictions have been reported in Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces this week. Fertilizer producers have not been overly affected so far but there are concerns the power shortages may start to have an impact, especially on ammonia and urea production, if the restrictions continue in the coming weeks.
BultiesBrothers
0
jessebrown
1
Methanex hikes North American January methanol to two-year high
Dec. 21, 2020 6:26 PM ETMethanex Corporation (MEOH)By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Methanex (NASDAQ:MEOH) says it nominated its North American methanol contract price at 145 cents/gal for January, up 25 cents/gal from December's level, the company's fifth price rise in a row and its highest contract pricing level since November 2018.
The rise in the January contract price coincides with a higher monthly average for prompt-month domestic methanol so far in December of 115.50 cents/gal from November's average spot price of 96.74 cents/gal, lifted by support from regional supply tightness from low regional storage levels following several unplanned outages earlier in the year.
Domestic supply is expected to remain tight moving into 2021, with new regional production anticipated to come online later than expected, while demand for methanol from derivative products including acetic acid and formaldehyde is seen remaining strong as economies bounce back from the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P Global Platts reports.
Methanex's upcoming two quarters should fully show the methanol price recovery, but further upside for the stock is limited as cyclical valuations are nearly in line with the historical average, MMR Research writes in an analysis posted recently on Seeking Alpha.
jessebrown
1
Zou dit bericht dan voor de negatieve stemming voor de sector in de VS zorgen?

Viewpoint: UAN carryover poses headwinds to US prices
Published date: 22 December 2020

Share:
Copious carryover of US UAN inventories are expected to outstrip demand-led bullishness in 2021, keeping a cap on rising prices through the first quarter.

Argus estimates carryover volumes at the end of the 2019-20 season, which ended in July, swelled by 16pc from the prior season and are poised to mitigate higher prices at Nola and in the Midwest through the first quarter 2021, despite an anticipated surge in farmer demand.

The acute jump in UAN carryover was fueled by an abrupt change in offshore trade flows, limiting domestic producers exports as production and imports expanded. The 2019-20 season marked the first year US, Russian and Trinidadian importers grappled with reduced market share in France following the EU's anti-dumping ruling on all three origins, leading to a surge in offshore cargoes to US ports.

The impact on prices has been pronounced, keeping UAN Nola priced at the lowest level since 2008 and a sharp discount to urea — a trend anticipated to drift into the first quarter.

Nola UAN paper values on the CME through the first quarter sustain at least a near $1/unit N discount to urea, despite stair-stepping price appreciation through the curve with physical netbacks from terminals extending the trend. UAN barge values have maintained a discount to urea since April 2019, a direct reflection of the EU's ruling.

Recent offers from domestic producer CF Industries framed a clear $20/st appreciation from December volumes at Midwestern terminals into May, providing the market a clear contango preceding spring consumption. And while April-May offers at terminals netback to Nola to about $145/st fob, at parity with May 2020, it maintains a near $0.75/st discount to urea.

Farmer purchasing power
Grower demand remains a key variable to in-season price direction, and farmer buying power has improved during the second half of 2020. Record federal aid stemming from various Covid-19-related stimulus programs, coupled with a near four-month rally in corn futures has placed more cash in farmers' wallets and increased fertilizer affordability for the spring.

Farmers can afford more UAN now than before the pandemic, and while improved purchasing power is bullish for spring demand it does not signal whether or not demand will sap carryover stocks enough to spur a significant swing in prices.

Overall nitrogen requirements, too, could be hampered by the 2021 crop mix. The ratio between new crop 2021 soybean and corn futures indicate soybeans — a less nitrogen-intensive crop — will be a more profitable crop for farmers, potentially eroding demand expectations.
de schaatser
0
Erg weinig handel. De koers bepaling is daarom niet representatief voor de werkelijke waarde die dit fonds op dit moment zou moeten uitstralen.
jessebrown
1
En maar weer een positief bericht,al helpt het geen reet.

Viewpoint: Recharge demand to support US ammonia in 1Q
Published date: 23 December 2020

Share:
Midwest distributors replenishing terminal inventories ahead of spring applications are anticipated to drive US ammonia prices higher following widespread consumption this fall.

Wholesalers and retailers in early December finalized the first strong post-harvest application period in nearly three years, and with preliminary corn acreage estimates of at least 90mn acres for the spring, replacement demand during the next three months is anticipated to stimulate the market and support spot prices.

While bullishness is primed across the US, any significant price swings preceding spring applications should be regionally defined as a result of supply availability.

Gross ammonia supplies are up by 2pc from a year prior on increased domestic production and imports, fueled primarily from Canada as Trinidadian cargoes slip amid production cutbacks and curbed industrial demand in the US.

Increased Canadian imports should largely help satiate Midwestern demand in tandem with domestic production during the next three months and keep a lid on price appreciation throughout the Corn Belt.

Spring prepay offers from CF Industries, Koch and OCI Wever across the Midwest frame 11-30pc of price appreciation from mid-December spot values to March, depending on location. CF in early December rolled out prepay offers across its distribution system, with quotes ranging $410-415/st fot at Illinois and Indiana terminals, $395-410/st fot at Iowa locations, $395/st fot in Blair, Nebraska, and $390/st fot in Palmyra, Missouri.

But lagging offshore volumes from Trinidad to the US Gulf coast could result in sharper price swings at the US Gulf coast.

Cargoes from Trinidadian producers slipped in January-October by 8pc from a year earlier on Covid-19-related cutbacks in industrial ammonia consumption and curbed production on the island. US producers compounded with reduced imports from Trinidad and allocated increased ammonia output to agricultural consumers, squeezing spot industrial ammonia availability at the Gulf coast.

As industrial consumption recovers from an early-year dearth, prices are anticipated to reflect supply tightness offshore. The monthly Tampa supply contract — the key benchmark in the US — settled at a one-year high for December cargoes, propelling Nola values higher, and near-term increases are widely expected as gas curtailments dents export availability from Trinidad.

Argus' preliminary export estimates from Trinidad framed volumes at a maximum 250,000t in December, well below the average 332,687 t/m of exports in 2020, according to the island's Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries.

Nutrien in December was operating all three of its production units on the island, but at minimum rates because of cutbacks in feedstock natural gas supplies, hampering ammonia output. Meanwhile, only one of Yara's Tringen ammonia units was operating in December, halving the company's monthly production.
jessebrown
2
Deze schrijver op Seeking Alfa houd een pleidooi voor CF

The information in Table 3 shows that CF Industries is undervalued. They have the lowest PE and a low EV/EBITDA. As a side note this makes them a potential takeover target and the stock price would certainly rise if an offer was made. It is unlikely that any of the other companies mentioned in Table 3 would undertake an offer. Agrium, before they became Nutrien, made a hostile offer to buy CF Industries in 2009 but were rebuffed. Also, there were negotiations in 2014 between CF and YARA to merge as equals, but CF dropped out of the discussions due to differences in corporate philosophy (Yara is 50% owned by the Norwegian government). I suspect that valuation was also an issue since CF is the more efficient producer.

The other thing to note is CF’s management efficiency. This is reflected in their industry high operating margins but also note employee production efficiency: almost 6,000 tonnes of fertilizer production per employee versus less than 2,000 tonnes per employee for any of the other companies. This is not really a fair comparison for Nutrien which has a large network of company owned dealers. The lower employee efficiency of Nutrien is offset by their ability to get retail pricing for their fertilizer.

With regard to dividend yield, CF, Yara and Nutrien are very similar but CF is the only one of the three with a sustainable payout ratio. In any case, a DY of >3% is very acceptable in the current environment.

Investment Case for CF

Figure 2 shows the recent stock price chart for CF Industries. It is still slightly below its 2020 high pre Covid indicating that it has not recovered completely.

Figure 2. CF stock price. 3 year chart. Dec 18, 2020. Source: Stockcharts.com customised by author.

The depressed CF stock price, together with its low EV/EBITDA, its manageable debt and exceptional profitability makes CF undervalued. There may be stock price volatility due to the commodity nature of the natural gas and nitrogen fertilizer markets, but overall CF is well positioned to remain competitive and handle fluctuations. The main issue going forward is whether CF can handle the trend to green ammonia production. Some ammonia producers, including CF Industries, are introducing carbon sequestering steps in the production process in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. As well, they are introducing electrolysis plant to their system – the first one will be at their Donaldsonville plant. In a recent press release (CF Industries Announces Commitment to Clean Energy Economy) they outlined their green ammonia plans. They have also started promoting the idea that they are a hydrogen producer as well as a nitrogen producer. Ammonia has 3 hydrogen atoms for every nitrogen atom and these hydrogen atoms can be removed and the pure hydrogen used as a “green” source of energy. Ammonia is a very efficient form of hydrogen transportation and CF obviously feels that this will be a significant non-fertilizer market opportunity in the future. The future is yet to be written but there is no reason to think that CF will not be able to effectively transition to green ammonia production. The transition away from natural gas as a feedstock will take many years due to the economic and logistical challenges of converting to electrolytic production of ammonia. Given the increasing demand for nitrogen fertilizer it is doubtful that government will push environmental regulation changes faster than the agriculture industry can handle.

As mentioned previously, the nitrogen fertilizer business is mostly a commodity business. CF produces the same nitrogen fertilizer products as other companies and they use the same feedstocks in their processes. CF’s main advantage is location since they enjoy some of the lowest natural gas prices in the world. But the prices of inputs and products are set on world markets and like everyone else in the industry they are price takers – not price setters. There is no doubt that natural gas and ammonia prices have a large effect on CF stock price. It is possible that there will be downward pressure on ammonia prices as new global production capacity is coming online. There are new plants under construction in China and in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi plant will be the largest electrolysis ammonia production plant in the world. It is green, and it will probably be subsidized by the Saudi government in terms of electricity costs. Overall though, demand for nitrogen fertilizer will be strong and conditions of excess supply due to new plants will be transitory.

Again, CF’s relatively low EV/EBITDA of 7 puts them in takeover range. I doubt whether the Chinese or Russians would be welcome but perhaps a large US private fertilizer company such as Koch Industries would be interested in buying CF. Koch Fertilizer is currently about half the size of CF Industries, but their parent Koch Industries certainly has the resources to buy CF if they wanted to. If so, it would be good for CF stock price. All things being equal, I expect a target price of $50 for CF in the next year. The average analyst estimate is $37.68 which is basically in line with the current price. The top analyst estimate is $46. According to Yahoo Finance, CF is undervalued with about 30% upside. In that sense, my target of $50 is reasonable. Together with the >3% DY this makes them an attractive investment now. If interested investors are concerned about another Covid related drop in the market, then wait until then and put CF on the watch list in the meantime.
jessebrown
0
Ik vraag mij eigenlijk af voor wie ik al die mooie artikelen plaats,er is geen enkele belangstelling hier op het forum,geen enkele positieve reactie ,dit is dan ook het laatste wat ik hier plaats,zoek het zelf maar uit.
BultiesBrothers
0
quote:

jessebrown schreef op 23 december 2020 20:34:

Ik vraag mij eigenlijk af voor wie ik al die mooie artikelen plaats,er is geen enkele belangstelling hier op het forum,geen enkele positieve reactie ,dit is dan ook het laatste wat ik hier plaats,zoek het zelf maar uit.
Oh vanuit mij is zeker belangstelling. Ik lees ze door, maar heb niet zozeer op of aanmerkingen. Alleen bij je laatst geplaatste artikel dat CF een overname kandidaat is/was. Marketcap 7.88 miljard, OCI daarentegen 3.27 miljard (schulden daargelaten). Dus dan lijkt me het eerder dat de groten de kleine opkopen....
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Vertraagd 30 jun 2022 17:35
Koers 31,480
Verschil 0,000 (0,00%)
Hoog 31,900
Laag 30,980
Volume 522.719
Volume gemiddeld 644.888
Volume gisteren 522.719

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