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Here are my short-term price targets for RLFTF:
RLFTF is a highly speculative, extremely risky, one-trick pony biotech stock. Ignoring the OTC status, and sub $1 stock price, most Wall St. funds cannot invest in these kinds of companies.
Current share count is 2.534b with 695m warrants outstanding. These warrants were not exercised, as I and others have said. They were posted on 8/29 due to uplisting. Strike prices are 0.01 - 0.04CHF; guaranteed to get exercised. Therefore, diluted share count is 3.3b and current market cap at $0.60 is exactly $2b. Very hard to justify a much higher price without clinical results. Many drugs have shown great initial results, but failed clinical trials, so hedge funds are skeptical. Wall St. would rather buy at $2-$5 and make a lower risk 100% return, than speculate at $0.60. Further dilution is also imminent: raise capital, RSU’s, etc. But I will use 3.3b shares for now. Side note: TSLA has diluted shareholders by 50% since 2012, but it still keeps going up a lot.
1. Worst case – it is not very effective. 90% crash and zero chance of cashing out above $0.10.
2. Bad case – somewhat effective vs. placebo. More trials are needed, while other drugs start hitting the market, as well as somewhat effective vaccines. We may see a slow bleed 50%-90% loss in price. Many things can still go wrong.
Now the optimistic scenario, where the drug proves to be super effective and possibly the best possible therapeutic for covid:
3. Interim results are great and company applies for EUA. I expect some FOMO to $2-3 range, and then settle back to $1.50 or $5b market cap; which is fair based on uncertainty of timing, pricing, distribution, licensing, etc.
4. EUA granted – I expect fair value to be in the $10b-$15b ($3-$5 stock) range if there is nothing else remotely as effective. Company can set pricing (probably $3k-$10k per treatment) and start selling. There is still uncertainty around production, distribution, etc. so hard to justify higher value.
5. Full FDA approval and Silver Bullet Covid killer - $20b+ market cap. Might see fair value of $5-$10 per share. Can always see the price overshoot up to $20, but should correct back to $10. $20 would be good time to take profits, if we still don’t know anything on how effective inhaler may be. Economies can slowly reopen and people will stop dying if we can produce it fast enough. Value is trillions of dollars to the world economy, so $20b is minimum market cap I can justify without saying it is severely undervalued.
6. Inhaler proves to be the silver bullet for early symptoms and turns covid in to a cold, with very few people getting severely or critically ill. I.e. end game. Can easily justify $35b-$70b ($10-$20 per share) market cap, and who knows how high FOMO takes us.
7. Company starts clinical trials for Asthma, COPD, sarcoidosis, pulmonary fibrosis, hypertension, maybe even cancer, etc. Potential to become next insulin, which has $30b in annual sales without many patents protecting it (i.e. generic sales). In this scenario, we can see $100b+ market cap and $30/share will be cheap.
This is all just wild speculation on my part, as there are so many uncertainties, and unknown unknowns. These are kind of pie in the blue sky scenarios above, but not impossible. Here is how I got to my valuation:
1. I am assuming that Relief pays to manufacture the drug, while Relief reaps the biggest rewards. This may not be the case, but I am hopeful they come up with a way. E.g. after FDA approval, take pre-paid pre-orders from highest bidders. Then use the money to pay big pharma to produce it for them. If they charge $5k per course, and pay $1k for production, then that is a great 80% gross margin. Everybody wins. If they treat 1m patients per year, that is $5b in sales, which gets us to $20b+ market cap easy.
2. If inhaler comes along, and they sell 100m a year for $100, then that is $10b in annual sales. It will cannibalize the IV treatment, but doesn’t matter. That is how you get to $50b market cap.
3. Asthma can see additional sales of hundreds of millions of inhalers per year alone.
4. I still believe that NeuroRX and Relief are great merger partners.
Above valuations assume best case scenarios. If RLF-100 is as good as we think it is, then I honestly don’t think there is much room for other therapeutics. RLF-100 is possibly the safest, most effective, cheapest, and easiest to produce therapeutic. In this best case scenario, it is hard for me to justify approving and prescribing other drugs, unless they are needed as a backup in case RLF-100 doesn’t work on everyone (very possible).
I plan on holding this stock for a very long time. It could be the beginning of a major medical breakthrough for many indications outside of covid. I will continue following Relief to see if my investment thesis changes. But for the time being, I plan on holding for 5-10 years the vast majority of my shares.