elf schreef op 21 maart 2014 17:44:
Despite growing angst, Goldman Sachs sticks to its call: the Federal Reserve won’t raise short-term interest rates until 2016.
“Rate hikes are far off,” wrote Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief Fed watcher, in a note to clients late Thursday. “Our central forecast for the first hike remains early 2016, although the risks now tilt in the direction of a slightly earlier move.”
The latest call came after U.S. stock and bond markets sold off Wednesday after the Fed’s latest policy announcement raised worries that the first rate hike could come during the spring of 2015. Fears have eased over the past two days as U.S. stocks rebound and the bond market has stabilized, but analysts warn more chopping trade ahead as debate over the Fed’s interest-rate policy outlook continues to be the key focus of financial markets.
Some banks revised their Fed calls. Bank of America Merrill Lynch now expects the Fed will start hiking rates in the fourth quarter of 2015, earlier than its previous forecast of the first-quarter of 2016. Some other Fed watchers didn’t change their forecasts, either. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities, still expects the first rate hike in the third quarter of 2015.
But Mr. Hatzius believes a rate hike may not come at all in 2015.