B_B schreef op 23 juni 2016 23:56:
[...]
Money talks for Brexit bookies, but it could be lying
Date
June 23, 2016
Much hype has been made about the prophetic powers of Britain's online bookies, making their odds the favoured way to gauge the prospects for the nation when it votes Thursday on whether to leave the European Union.
So much hype, in fact, that investors and traders seem to be trusting that the bookies are correct in forecasting a very slim chance that the "leave" campaign will prevail. In doing so, they are simultaneously rejecting opinion polls, which make the vote appear to be too close to call (44 per cent for leave and 45 per cent for remain, with 11 per cent undecided).
The case for favouring the bookies makes logical sense. People willing to bet money on an outcome presumably are taking the decision more seriously than those who happened to be at home when the pollster called, or the whimsical surfers of the internet who happened to click on a link. However, on the eve of the vote, there is intriguing evidence being presented here and there that, in this case, there's a chance it could be a mistake to put too much faith in the bookies.
When asked how his site sets odds, Ladbrokes head of political betting Matthew Shaddick told CNBC it's "pretty much supply and demand at this stage. The more money we take on remain, the odds come down. And vice versa."
Here's the most intriguing part: More bets had been placed on leave than remain. But the average bet placed on remain, he said, was £450 ($886.46), compared with £75 for leave......
www.smh.com.au/business/world-busines...