lower schreef op 12 oktober 2017 22:29:
Shire Q3/2017: Earnings
Preview $SHPG
www.seekingalpha.com/article/4113184 • In the Genetic Disease division, the company will suffer from the manufacturing supply shortage on Cinryze, in U.S. and Europe, which will compensate the strong performance of old brands as Replagal, Vpriv and Elaprase. Street expects $184M of sales for Cinryze in Q3/2017, up 11% YoY, while I believe that the sales for the drug will decline YoY, so I estimate around $ 140M of sales for Cinryze in Q3/2017.?
• Lastly, I assume a health performance for Legacy Baxalta in Q3/2017, up 5% YoY.
To translate my top line expectations into earnings estimate, I assume 37% of Core Operating Margin and a 17% tax rate, so I estimate a non-GAAP EPS of 3.55$, which is 3% below consensus.
Despite that, I don’t believe Shire will revise down its FY 2017 guidance, because the issues in this quarter are largely related to phasing, especially related to Cinryze, and they aren’t reflecting any weakness in the underlying organic growth of the company.